October 2014: Slight Rain Chances/Halloween Outlook

[BlueJay]

Currently experiencing a nice morning rain shower!

[wxman57]

This morning's GFS is even colder for this weekend. Front arrives early Friday morning:

[djmike]

Wxman57....Can you do a meteogram for us here in the Beaumont (BPT) area? Would greatly appreciate it sir!

[jasons2k]

And not as much rain, either. Not a good time of the day for a front to come through if you want rain.

[BlueJay]

I can report 0.03 inches of rain at our house today!
That's a nice way to start a brand new month.

[Paul Robison]

It looks like a fairly healthy line of storms will accompany the cold front during the Thursday evening/early Friday morning hours from near Kerrville to Texarkana spreading rapidly SE and off the Coast Friday. This front should bring a Chamber of Commerce weather weekend to our Region.

Healthy line of storms? Don't think so. Read this HGX Disco:

AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW WE WILL WARM UP QUICKLY AS 850
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND 18C. SCATTERED STREAMER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW THANKS TO ABOVE
AVERAGE PWATS AND BROAD DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND PUSH
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AROUND 8/9 AM. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING IN NORTH TEXAS AND BEGIN THEIR MARCH SOUTHWARDS. THE
GENERAL THINKING IS THAT THE LINE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
FRONT AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE
HIGH RES TEXAS TECH WRF SUPPORTS THIS WITH THE LINE STARTING TO
WEAKEN AS IT PASSES COLLEGE STATION AND BECOMING VERY WEAK AND
DIFFUSE AS IT APPROACHES GALVESTON. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
MAIN ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE UP IN OKLAHOMA. AT 250MB
THOUGH WE DO FALL INTO A WEAK RRQ IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FRIDAY
MORNING. PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALSO APPROACH 2.00" WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF KEEPING THE LINE GOING THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE
SLIGHTLY LEANED TOWARDS THE HIGH RES MODELS BUT ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE TO POPS. PLEASE STAY TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AS
SMALL CHANGES IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND COLD FRONT TIMING CAN HAVE
MAJOR CHANGES ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK DOES
CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING STRONG WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LINE.


Better a weak RRQ than a strong RRQ, right? And I'm glad the main energy is up in Oklahoma, aren't you, Srainhoutex?

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

One more day of warmth before a cold front sweeps across the region tonight.

A warm start this morning with temperatures at 600am around 80 degrees at most reporting sites and dewpoints in the low to mid 70’s. A cold front has entered the TX panhandle ahead of a strong short wave trough over New Mexico. Locally, moisture continues to increase off the Gulf of Mexico with isolated warm air advection showers moving rapidly NNE across the region. Heating this morning should result in a gradual increase in scattered showers across the region has moisture deepens and gradual lift approaches from the western short wave. Cold front will make good progress today crossing I-35 by late afternoon. Air mass ahead of the frontal boundary becomes unstable over N and C TX with CAPE values of 2000-2500J/kg by late afternoon. Shear profile look rather meager, but enough instability appears in place along with both strong frontal lift and short wave lifting to produce a line of strong thunderstorms along the boundary by late afternoon. Highs this afternoon with soar into the lower 90’s across the area with mid 90’s across C TX with heat index values near or over 100.

Frontal boundary will enter SE TX by 1000pm and push off the coast near sunrise. High resolution models show a solid line of thunderstorms marching across the northern ½ of SE TX (mainly north of I-10) between 800pm and 100am before storms begin to weaken as they push south of I-10 into an increasingly capped air mass. SPC slight risk area clips our northern counties, but think the severe risk is fairly slim at this time. Rainfall coverage looks fairly decent with .25-1.0 inch across much of the area with the lower amounts towards the coast and Matagorda Bay. Should see all rainfall ended or off the coast by 700-800am Friday with rapidly clearing skies.

Offshore flow develops behind the front with NW winds of 10-20mph ushering in a dry air mass. Dewpoints tumble from the mid 70’s to the mid 40’s on Friday. Surface high pressure builds southward into TX Friday evening and with clear skies and light winds, many areas will fall into the 50’s Saturday morning. Highs on Saturday under sunny skies will reach the upper 70’s to low 80’s with low humidity. Another cool morning on Sunday with lows likely back into the 50’s for many areas and then slightly warmer Sunday afternoon.

Southerly winds begin to return the humidity off the Gulf by early next week. Models diverge how quickly moisture returns and exactly when to return rain chances. For now will bring enough moisture inland to see scattered showers as early as Monday…but this is low confidence.

[wxman57]

Wxman57....Can you do a meteogram for us here in the Beaumont (BPT) area? Would greatly appreciate it sir!

Cool for Beaumont, too, this weekend:

[djmike]

Awesome! Thank you Wxman57!!

[srainhoutx]

Storms are developing ahead of the main line associated with the cold front across portions of Central Texas...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
530 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

TXZ209-022315-
FAYETTE-
530 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM CDT...

AT 525 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LA GRANGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
ROUND TOP...
RABBS PRAIRIE...
RUTERSVILLE...
NECHANITZ...
WALDECK...
WALHALLA...
WARRENTON...
WINEDALE...
CARMINE...

[jasons2k]

Will be interesting to see if the lone, right-turning discrete supercell can hold together and get us (those of us on the northside). Other than that...not looking like much.

[unome]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/

new weather briefing here: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=brief_support

http://www.khou.com/story/weather/2014/ ... /16617637/

[Ptarmigan]

Wrap-up: Severe weather whips North Texas
http://www.wfaa.com/story/news/local/20 ... /16598555/

Severe weather hit Dallas area on top of Ebola in Dallas.

[jasons2k]

That line is still holding together - we'll see ...

[srainhoutx]

Just emptied .89 out of the rain gauge from the overnight storms. Get out and enjoy the weekend. It should be a Chamber of Commerce weather weekend and time to open up the windows. These sort of early October days are my favorite in SE Texas.

[Andrew]

Some pretty good totals across all of Houston Metro area overall

[BlueJay]

Around 1:00 this morning about 0.85 inches of rain fell at our house!

[Paul Robison]

Hello, everybody.

Anything similar to what we went through today on tap for the coming work week?

[srainhoutx]

It appears that moisture begins to return across our Region later on Monday as the High Pressure that is bringing our pleasant Fall temperatures and low dewpoints slides E and a return flow of the Gulf becomes established. The fly in the ointment regarding our sensible weather next week looks to be how the remnants of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Simon interacts with a broad trough over the Great Lakes and Eastern US. We are in a blocking pattern with a meandering upper low expected to drift W across Southern Canada and around the Great Lakes Region. The other issue is just how Typhoon Phanfone in the Western Pacific affects the Pacific flow as it re-curves near Japan to the NE into the Northern Pacific. The computer models are having a difficult time handling all the features, so there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast next week. If the remnants of Simon cross Mexico into the Central Plains as the GFS suggests, rain chances may need to be increased Wednesday into next weekend. The Euro suggests that Simon will continue to move more W before turning back NE. The Global models are indicating a deep trough develops across the Central US by next weekend so we may see another shot of colder air drop S from Canada. It is interesting that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is expected to drop very low next week (-4 to -5). That as well as other teleconnection indices suggest a chilly unsettled pattern may be ahead as we enter the mid October timeframe. We will see.

10042014_1415_goes15_x_vis2km_19ESIMON_90kts-970mb-199N-1133W_74pc.jpg

[Kludge]

Excellent synopsis...as always... Steve...!!!!

We all appreciate your analysis and discussion here. It's much more insightful and detailed than we'll find on the national network and subscription -based sites.

KHOU Weather Forum is my Home Page now... and waking up to your outlook is a great start to my day...!

Please keep up your excellent work.