July 2014: Stalled Front/ Rain Chnaces To End July

[srainhoutx]

The seabreeze is certainly more active today. Pea size hail reported near Beamer and Scarsdale in SE Houston

[Rip76]

About 2 miles from my street.

[jasons2k]

In looking over the 12z GFS and Euro model runs, it seems like both models suggest the monsoonal trough will be moving further north next week from the deep tropics and encroaching into south Texas. Perhaps we could be looking at a "wetter" period again next week.

I'm confused. I thought the "wetter pattern similar to last week" was supposed to happen tomorrow and Friday.

Reading today's NWS discussion, they make reference to higher rain chances SW with the sea breeze and the storms up near the Red River inching closer to the area, mainly NE zones, but that's it. No mention of 'another surge of moisture' like they had been the last several days.

I guess things changed, but there's not really an explanation.

[Paul Robison]

I have something of my own from today's AFD discussion:

ON THURSDAY...BACKDOOR FRONT
SAGS A LITTLE CLOSER GETTING CLOSE TO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND WARRANTS A HIGHER POP FOR THOSE
NORTHEAST ZONES FOR THURDAY AND FRIDAY. FARTHER SOUTH AND
SOUTWHEST...THE SEABREEZE WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MORE
PULSE STORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL GO WITH 40 TO 50
PCT COVERAGE NORTHEAST ZONES...TAPERING DOWN TO 20S IN THE
SOUTHWEST.


Where are the northeast zones? Would they stand the better chance of seeing strong to severe storms than we would here in SW Houston?

[srainhoutx]

Chances of showers and storms should increase the next several days as a weak surface boundary is draped across Central Texas and and upper trough over the Western Gulf provide for an unstable atmosphere and convective temperatures lower to near 90 and PW's slightly increase to around 2 inches. Showers and storm could produce brief heavy rainfall and should decrease during the evening with loss of day time heating. I expect the 4th of July could see some brief storms fire up of a scattered nature, but all in all the area fireworks displays should be just fine.

The pattern of a weakness between the Western Upper Ridge and another across the SE Gulf should provide for an Easterly wave or two to enter the Western Gulf. MIMIC suggests a surge of deep tropical moisture may arrive later in the Holiday Weekend and continue into next week. Daily showers/storms look likely as a typical Texas summer time pattern continues. The Gulf remains quiet, tropically speaking while newly upgraded Hurricane Arthur threatens the Carolinas for the next couple of days. Happy 4th of July everyone. I am taking a few days off and hope everyone has a safe and happy Holiday Weekend.

[unome]

holiday weekend weather, from HGX http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/

http://youtu.be/qf2hJFpMPRk

[Texaspirate11]

Happy Safe 4th everyone -
With fireworks both man made and mother nature, I guess.

I hope everyone in the path of Arthur, stays safe and away from the beach.
"Don't put your stupid hat on" says the Governor of North Carolina.
Well said.

[BlueJay]

Radar shows rain blobs in Montgomery County...hope we get some measurable goodness!

[Andrew]

THOU is showing a nice outflow boundary from the NE heading towards the SW counties. Should be the focal point for more storms through the rest of the evening

[jasons2k]

Lots of rain all around, but I am stuck in a donut of nothing here just east of 45. The Woodlands is getting it, though...

[spadilly]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC185-201-339-473-032115-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0046.140703T2051Z-140703T2115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
351 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 351 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER TODD MISSION...OR 9
MILES NORTHWEST OF PINEHURST...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PINEHURST...MAGNOLIA...TODD MISSION AND PLANTERSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3040 9583 3027 9568 3006 9585 3025 9607
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 045DEG 9KT 3029 9582

$$

!KP!

[unome]

nice ! so busy watching hurricane radar, I forgot to look closer to home :)

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... X-N0Q-1-48

[BlueJay]

Up to 0.51 inches of rain so far. Thunder, lightening and our pines are swinging in the wind. This weather may disrupt rhe concert at the pavilion tonite.

[djmike]

Close to 4" here in Beaumont in an hours time. Nickel sized hail. Cars dented. Cars are flooded...70mph wind gusts. I'm currently flooded in. Trees are snapping left and right I hear outside and of course, no power!

[Electric Lizard]

Almost an inch and a half in about 30 minutes here in the Energy Corridor (Memorial and Eldridge).

[jasons2k]

Crazy storm here. The outflow went through (earlier - maybe 3:00) and I thought it would stop anything new over me, but about 4:15 the sky opened up. It tapered-off after awhile, but the thunder has been continuing. And now...the radar returns are increasing again in my vicinity. I'll take the rain but it stopped me from mowing. And I would like a dry 4th...I have stuff to BBQ.

[Andrew]

536 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 535 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY. UP TO THREE INCHES OF
RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL
BY 630 PM. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
JERSEY VILLAGE, HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE, BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...
PINEY POINT VILLAGE, SPRING BRANCH NORTH, SPRING BRANCH WEST...
SPRING VALLEY, ADDICKS PARK TEN, EASTERN ELDRIDGE / WEST OAKS...
HEDWIG VILLAGE, HILSHIRE VILLAGE, CARVERDALE, BRIAR FOREST...
ALIEF, SPRING BRANCH CENTRAL, SPRING BRANCH EAST, MID WEST...
WESTWOOD, LANGWOOD AND FAIRBANKS / NORTHWEST CROSSING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

&&

LAT, LON 2986 9547 2966 9549 2970 9564 2994 9565

$$

[Portastorm]

We had a few pop-up showers/storms in the Austin area between 6:30-7:30 pm. Some pea-sized hail, winds 40-45 mph, with nearly an inch of rain in a few spots namely in south and central Austin. Those who were under them ... welcomed the cells and the rain.

[BlueJay]

Happy Fourth of July to everyone!

We had a low temperature of 70 degrees this morning And currently is 71! Brrr!

[mckinne63]

Not a drop yesterday here in Stafford. Skies clouded up, heard some thunder in the background, but things cleared up quickly. Oh well, maybe today.

Happy 4th everyone! Stay safe and hope we all get some rain, before the fireworks of course.