September: Weekend Rain Chances. 1-2 Inches Possible C/N TX

[kayci]

looking out window, talking to thundercloud... "c'mon, over here.... you can dooo it. Psst, yea you, over here!"

[Rip76]

Anything that gets near 45 automatically disappears into thin air.

Thank you for the cloud cover though.

[Rip76]

That's a lot of action in the gulf right now.

[srainhoutx]

That's a lot of action in the gulf right now.

Yes it is. And the 7 Day QPF continues to creep up the Coast, but not much headway inland.

09042013 20Z GULF VIS latest.jpg

09042013 20Z 7 Day QPF p168i.gif

[Rip76]

Seeing that in the daytime, that isn't an everyday thing.

It used to be...

[Texas Pirate]

Sorry this is off topic but WHATS WITH ALL THESE MOSQUITOES?

[rnmm]

Sorry this is off topic but WHATS WITH ALL THESE MOSQUITOES?

They are very bad in Galveston County....here is the number for Mosquito Control for Galveston County if anyone is interested.... 1-800-842-5622 just follow the prompts!!

[Kludge]

Sorry this is off topic but WHATS WITH ALL THESE MOSQUITOES?

Don't apologize. I just posted "why all this CAP and high pressure and dry air and lack of tropical activity" over on the Mosquito Forum. It's my suspicion that there could be some connection between the two. Please post back if you discover any curious findings.

[Texas Pirate]

Wait? There's a Mosquito Forum?

[srainhoutx]

2. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE
INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND ALONG
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al992013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309051212
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2013, DB, O, 2013090506, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992013
AL, 99, 2013090406, , BEST, 0, 210N, 917W, 15, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2013090412, , BEST, 0, 212N, 926W, 15, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2013090418, , BEST, 0, 214N, 934W, 15, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2013090500, , BEST, 0, 215N, 940W, 15, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2013090506, , BEST, 0, 215N, 943W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 180, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 99, 2013090512, , BEST, 0, 213N, 944W, 20, 1010, LO, 34,

09052013 8 AM EDT TWO atl2.gif

09052013 99L 1235196_10200548476854816_2124785866_n.jpg

[jasons2k]

Yeah, looks more like next week things may finally get interesting. So we'll have a window of about 2-3 weeks for tropical mischief before it's over.

[cperk]

Yeah, looks more like next week things may finally get interesting. So we'll have a window of about 2-3 weeks for tropical mischief before it's over.

Interesting for who Mexico,because that's where all the systems has gone so far.

[Texas Pirate]

ED - call off the GFS sniffin in 8-9 days I'm going on VACATION DUDE.....

File under: Don't hate me cuz my lawn got water today:
But it did! Nice tropical downpour with ponding on the roads there for a bit.....

[Texas Pirate]

Don't know where to place this but we're having Mock Emergency Preparation in the bay area this Saturday.
You can move it to where ever but I really don't want people to freak out around the bay area:

This is from the City of Nassau Bay Emergency Management Office:
First Responders from the city and surrounding area will participate in an exercise taking place on Saturday September 7, 2013 between the hours of 9a- noon. The exercise is being conducted in order to test and improve the community’s overall preparedness for an emergency event. The incident is not real; however the response activities during the full scale exercise will be practiced in a manner that is as realistic as possible. The area where the exercise will take place will be along Upper Bay Rd at Howard Ward Park. For your safety, and in order to complete the exercise in a realistic environment, you may experience traffic delays between the hours of 9a – 12p. We ask for your patience and support if the exercise causes any inconvenience.

[srainhoutx]

Seabreeze getting active...

[Texas Pirate]

ED - if you promise not to laugh I shall tell you where I'm going
Out of all the places I COULD GO for my birthday....I'm going to...
(drum roll)

Pittsburgh.

And I swear its not a punch line to a joke



I just cant worry about the bay area and enjoy learning to be a Yinzer.....
( I believe that's like being a Y'all....)

[Texas Pirate]

It'll be lucky to get a name (Humberto, which was an interesting storm in 2008), but it adds a nice splash of color to the Gulf.

I remember the last Humberto - a 1:00 a.m. su-prise! su-prise!

[Texas Pirate]

NO COC

UPDATED...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF
TAMPICO MEXICO AND DID NOT FIND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE LOW
MOVES INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND
TAMAULIPAS THROUGH FRIDAY

[srainhoutx]

Evening e-mail from Jeff:

Tropical wave over the south-central Gulf of Mexico has been declared 99L this afternoon.

US Air Force aircraft investigated the area of disturbed weather this afternoon and did find a broad low level circulation, but no well defined center. Additionally, since the time the aircraft left, deep convection has decreased and it would not appear that the system is becoming any better organized. While upper level conditions do appear favorable for intensification, the system will be nearing the Mexican coast over the next 24 hours and this should limit the overall development potential. With that said, systems under favorable upper level conditions in this part of the Gulf of Mexico can spin up into tropical storms fairly quickly and this is possible on Friday.

Tropical moisture will be moving into the TX coast on Friday and during the weekend with increased rain chances especially near the coast.

Over the next 5-15 days the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico will need to be watched closely for additional tropical developments as several model ensembles are suggesting some potential for more organized tropical activity.

 

[Ptarmigan]

It'll be lucky to get a name (Humberto, which was an interesting storm in 2008), but it adds a nice splash of color to the Gulf.

Humberto was in 2007.