The Storm Prediction Center issues Slight Risk for portions of E Central and SE Texas later today:
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0720 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2013
VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS E CENTRAL AND SE
TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
FAR SW TX AND SE NM...
...FL TODAY...
THE CORE OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNEWD FROM
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY TO THE SE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING /REFER TO LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR DETAILS/. TO THE RIGHT
OF THE CYCLONE TRACK...A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...AS WELL AS A FEW CLOUD
BREAKS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK-MODERATE BUOYANCY ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA TODAY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED TWO DISTINCT
CONVECTIVE BANDS...ONE OFF THE W COAST OF FL CLOSER TO THE CYCLONE
CORE...AND ANOTHER BROKEN BAND OF STORMS THAT IS SPREADING EWD NEAR
THE ATLANTIC COAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
AND MORE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN
BAND APPROACHING THE E CENTRAL FL COAST TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED MCV. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AS THE ERN GULF BAND MOVES INLAND...PRIMARILY WHERE THE STORMS
INTERSECT A SUBTLE RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FL.
...E/SE TX TO CENTRAL LA/MS TODAY...
A WELL-DEVELOPED MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ESEWD ACROSS N CENTRAL/NE TX TODAY. NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR ON THE SE FLANK OF THE MCV WHERE THE WEAK SURFACE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ENCOUNTERS RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING...ACROSS E TX. SOME FLOW ENHANCEMENT
ALOFT ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV COULD PROMOTE MORE
ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLUSTERS OF
STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SEWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS
E/SE TX. MLCAPE APPROACHING 3000 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
NEAR 30 KT COULD SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AS
WELL AS DAMAGING GUSTS GIVEN PRECIPITATION LOADING AND STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THIS MORNING IN LA ALONG I-20 COULD ALSO
PERSIST WHILE DEVELOPING SWWD ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. A FEW STRONG
PULSE-TYPE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS CLUSTER TODAY...AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR NEAR AND W OF THE SABINE RIVER AS
OUTFLOW WITH THESE STORMS INTERACT WITH THE NE TX CONVECTION AND
MCV. FARTHER E INTO MS...THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS THE DEGREE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS THAT STRONG SURFACE
HEATING WILL OCCUR E-SE OF THE ONGOING LA STORMS...WHILE RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD EXPAND A LITTLE FARTHER E/NE IN MS...JUST
TO THE NW OF THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA. THOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...BUOYANCY COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
PULSE STORMS WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
...SW TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS PUSHED BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S INTO FAR SW TX AND SE NM...AND THIS ENELY FLOW
REGIME WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SAG
SWD TODAY ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A BELT OF MODEST WNWLY
MID-UPPER FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THIS AREA TODAY...WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE STORM COVERAGE SINCE
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FOR ASCENT WILL BE NEBULOUS AT
BEST...THUS MOST STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LIKE THE DAVIS AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 06/06/2013