August:Hot & Dry To End The Month/SE TX

[mckinne63]

Nice rains coming down in Stafford. A little bit of thunder and some wind.

[texoz]

Lots of nice rain just south of I-10 from Houston to just SE of San Antonio.

How far north can these rains travel? Does Central Texas have a chance?

[jgreak]

Holy cow! I have never in my life heard so much thunder and seen so many lightning strikes in my life as there are in kingwood right now! We really needed this though, as we missed out on all the good rains of July. Rain is coming down in sheets, but there's no way I'm about to go look at the gauge, sounds like I'm in a war torn region

[jasons2k]

Wow, it is so dark just to my east. I hear lots of thunder too!

[cisa]

It was wild out here in Porter for a while. Wind, rain and lots of LOUD thunder. Wow!

[weatherguy425]

Middle of the week looks least active, but things may pick up again towards the end of the week with increasing moisture and a stalling boundary to our north.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Upper level trough/weakness over the region today will provide another shot at rainfall.

Fairly widespread rainfall coverage on Sunday especially west of I-45. With the upper level ridge that has been anchored over NW TX retreating toward the WNW, a weakness has developed over the area and deeper moisture has pushed westward from LA and the central Gulf of Mexico. Expect to see another round of thunderstorms this afternoon as trigger temperatures are exceeded by midday. May see a slightly later start compared to yesterday and better coverage north of I-10 today. Models really peg the areas north of I-10 between about 4-8pm possibly with the help of a weak short wave dropping southward on the eastern edge of the upper ridge.

Gradually lowering rain chances through the rest of the week as upper level northerly flow results in drier air mass pushing southward. This will also limit the inland movement of the seabreeze front and help focus rain chances mainly south of I-10 Tues-Fri. Would not discount a couple of weak short waves rotating down the eastern edge of the ridge and across our area helping to produce more thunderstorms than currently shown, but when this happens is nearly impossible to determine.

Ernesto may briefly move into the far southern Bay of Campeche on Thursday-Friday. The system will be far enough south that moisture will remain south of our area. Broad wind field across the central Gulf may bring 2-4 foot swells into the NW Gulf by late this week/weekend, but this should have little to no impact on tide levels. Overall little to no impact is expected from Ernesto.

[jasons2k]

I had about the same, .08" yesterday. I sure wish the storms to the NE were building and not dying along the outflow.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Slightly better chance of thunderstorms this afternoon compared to yesterday.



Early this morning a blow up of deep convection has occurred over C LA likely in response to a southward moving weak short wave on the eastern side of large scale high pressure over the western US. These storms or their outflow boundaries along with the impulse aloft will move in a general SSW to SW direction today and will be in our area toward peak heating this afternoon. This combined with the slow northward movement of the seabreeze boundary may result in low level boundary collision near/along I-10 late this afternoon and a possible enhancement of storms chances in that area.



Will continue with the 20-30% rain chances each day as along the seabreeze boundary and for any weak disturbances that approach from the NE. Thursday-Friday a weak boundary (front) will approach the area from the NNE and storms along this feature may push southward both late Thursday and again late Friday to affect at least the northern and eastern parts of the region. Weak boundary may make it down toward I-10 by Saturday…not expecting any cold air advection, but increased clouds may knock 1-2 degrees off the daytime highs.



As for Ernesto, the forecast track remains unchanged with the system only briefly emerging into the Bay of Campeche well south of TX and then moving inland over mainland MX. This track and the forecasted intensity will result in little to no impact along the TX coast. A slight increase in swells is possible over the weekend on the beaches, but this is not expected to result in any tidal issues

[jasons2k]

There just isn't much out there...looks like I may need to run the sprinklers again....going on two weeks now with no rain.

[mckinne63]

Seeing lightning and hearing thunder in Stafford. Some dark clouds, but they aren't moving very much. Still lots of bright sky. Probably just going to get alot of noise.

[srainhoutx]

We'll need to keep an eye to our N as a frontal boundary sags S and moisture from the Gulf increases late week. There are some indications that deep tropical moisture will pool across the Western Gulf as Ernesto makes landfall near Veracruz. In fact some models keep the Western Gulf rather unsettled and with a favorable MJO pulse heading E, conditions may need to be monitored for additional tropical troubles mid month and beyond. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Ernesto:

Ernesto made landfall yesterday round 1015pm on the southern coast of the Yucatan near Mahahual, MX. Just prior to landfall weather station on Banco Chinchorro IS just off the coast recorded a surface pressure reading of 979.4mb. The inner core and eye of Ernesto was tracked by Belize Radar and the eye diameter was about 15 miles across at the time of landfall. Since landfall the system has moved inland over the southern Yucatan and begun to weaken. While deep convection remains over the center the cloud tops are warming and Ernesto will continue to weaken until it emerges over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche later today. The structure of the storm looks well on satellite images with a core of convection over the center and large curved bands extending outward in all directions. Conditions over the Bay of Campeche will be very favorable for intensification with good 200mb outflow aloft. The main question is how far offshore will Ernesto move before its second landfall along the eastern coast of MX. Based on the most recent satellite trends, the center may only briefly be over water.





92L:

An area of low pressure is located over the east-central Atlantic about 700 miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands. While there is a defined elongated circulation at the surface, there is little convection and the system has large amounts of dry air to the north and west. Any development will be slow and similar to Ernesto most of the global models keep the system fairly weak as it moves generally westward.



A much stronger wave will be moving off the African coast in the next day or two and this system looks to have some development potential also.

[Kludge]

There just isn't much out there...looks like I may need to run the sprinklers again....going on two weeks now with no rain.

We're in our fourth week here with nothing more than a few drops. Starting to get that 2011 feel...except there are many more folks around us that get a nice shower every other day or so. We refer to them as the daily "lottery winners"...noting the random and isolated manner in which these showers pulse up and down.

Our daily saying, which usually occurs around sundown, is "maybe it'll be our turn tomorrow".

[srainhoutx]

It appears that both the HRRR and RAP are doing rather well in the short range regarding the scattered sea breeze storms developing. If those meso models are correct, we will see a repeat tomorrow as well.

[srainhoutx]

We may need to monitor storm development tomorrow as the frontal boundary sags a bit closer to our area. The SPC is mentioning the potential for a Slight Risk being issued in their latest 2 Day Outlook for portions of Eastern Texas on E. We will see...

...ERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY...
OTHER STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG SWRN EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND/OR ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF CLOUD SHIELD ATTENDANT TO ANY
ONGOING SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
FORM WITHIN A NWLY FLOW REGIME AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND SOME HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS...IF
CONFIDENCE BECOMES GREATER FOR MORE STORM ORGANIZATION.

[srainhoutx]

The RAP suggests the greatest threat of any meaningful storms today would tend to be across the Piney Woods of E Texas. Areas across our Northern zones may see a brief pulse up of storms with the boundary stalled to our N near College Station and on E. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Weak frontal boundary over N TX this morning will sag southward today while aloft a short wave moves southward over the region on the eastern edge of the high pressure cell to our west. Front and short wave will reach our northern counties around early afternoon as surface temperatures reach the upper 90’s (the trigger temperatures for today). Expect thunderstorms to develop as the air mass becomes very unstable (CAPE of 2500-4500 J/kg) by early to midafternoon.



Forecast soundings show dry air in the mid layers of the atmosphere which will help support strong downburst winds and strong outflow boundaries. Strong damaging winds will be the main threat with these storms. Storms should move S to SSW toward the I-10 corridor by late afternoon and may collide with the inland moving seabreeze front helping to enhance coverage near I-10. With the loss of heating, the activity should begin to die off around 7-8pm.



Weak front/outflow boundary from today will be located across the southern regions on Saturday and this may help foster additional storms especially as the seabreeze begins to move inland south of I-10. Boundary washes out and begins to lift back northward on Sunday with rain chances returning to isolated.



Will discuss TD # 7 later today.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z WRF/NMM is a bit more bullish on storms developing this afternoon along the boundary.

[unome]

do you suppose storms will actually materialize ??? I really had my hopes up, but hgx seems to keep downgrading the chances...



watering again... http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php