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Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 12:56 pm
by Cpv17
don wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 12:13 pm
Ive been thinking since yesterday that Chambers county may be the landfall location. It seems like models have honed in on an area from Galveston to the Sabine. If Laura hits from Chambers county or points west of their metro Houston could receive hurricane force winds. As that would bring the core into the metro area,especially those along and east of I-45.
My prediction is High Island.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:00 pm
by Scott747
So I'm getting a better feel for why they have stuck with a border track and hasn't been coming up. 0z Ukie ensemble mean was over the border like the operational GFS ensembles. Heavy weight with the two influences the track.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:01 pm
by weatherguy425
ECMWF just started running
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:02 pm
by davidiowx
Looks like they nudged the cone a tad west on the 1pm update
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:05 pm
by don
12z GFS ensembles with a consensus into Chambers county.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:07 pm
by unome
davidiowx wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:02 pm
Looks like they nudged the cone a tad west on the 1pm update
intermediate advisories only have current position changes, not track changes
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:08 pm
by davidiowx
unome wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:07 pm
davidiowx wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:02 pm
Looks like they nudged the cone a tad west on the 1pm update
intermediate advisories only have current position changes, not track changes
Thanks, my eyes have essentially been crossed starring at these things for the past several days.
I would have to think the track will adjust west at 5pm considering the 12z Euro just showed Galveston bay according to s2k. Still waiting on tropicaltidbits to update
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:10 pm
by weatherguy425
weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:01 pm
ECMWF just started running
Only 24-hours in, but ridging is a touch stronger, Texas trough is weaker... may be further west.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:13 pm
by mcheer23
Looks like itll hit near the border to me
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:13 pm
by Waded
Went to the local Walmart to buy an air mattress in case I need to camp in the Jeep if the power goes out. Walmart slammed, every register open and still huge lines.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:13 pm
by mcheer23
Yup shift east by EURO
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:15 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
Chambers County for Euro?
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:15 pm
by Cpv17
It’ll be back west tonight lol
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:15 pm
by weatherguy425
mcheer23 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:13 pm
Yup shift east by EURO
Yep - interesting.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:16 pm
by don
12z EURO shifts slightly east to the chambers/Jefferson county line.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:17 pm
by srainhoutx
Near Port Arthur. It is stronger than the 00Z run. In the 930's for pressure. That's conducive for Cat 4.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:19 pm
by sau27
euro shift east, but not as much as the 12z has shifted east the past few days
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:20 pm
by Waded
A bit of a relieve to see some of the models shift back to the border! I hope it keeps.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:23 pm
by snowman65
Waded wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:20 pm
A bit of a relieve to see some of the models shift back to the border! I hope it keeps.
speak for yourself....lol
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:24 pm
by Kingwood36
Will the track shift at 4?