January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[sleetstorm]

Would you mind alloting a much clearer translation, srainhoutx, please?

[Paul]

is it TC season yet?

[TexasBreeze]

That cpc outlook discussion, in a nutshell, says continuation of our recent dreary weather overall. Wetter and cooler than average for our part of the world. BTW: La Nina where are you??

[srainhoutx]

Just a bit chilly out this morning, but at least we have clear skies, for now. Our next front is still forecast to arrive tomorrow. Although not as strong as some we have seen so far this winter season, it will be rather stout. All eye will turn to our N and W as the next in a parade of storm heads this way for Sunday/Monday and that front looks to offer a round of heavy rainfall and just perhaps some wintry weather across N TX and OK as well. Dallas/Ft Worth now hinting of some ice issues tomorrow. Didn't wxman57 state there would be some potential ice issues in N/NE TX? Interesting...


SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
340 AM EST WED JAN 19 2011

VALID 12Z WED JAN 19 2011 - 12Z FRI JAN 21 2011

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TODAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS
MORNING AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES SOUTHEAST...LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL DRAW
MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD. THIS MOISTURE WILL
OVERRUN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS OKLAHOMA...BRINGING SNOW
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY TODAY. COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT DIVES SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE OVER 20
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY
EVENING.

[singlemom]

[quote="srainhoutx"]COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT DIVES SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

I think that was for the 8-14 day forecast (I cut out a lot of stuff). We're flying out of IAH to Denver on Tuesday...hope icing doesn't delay us.

[srainhoutx]

COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT DIVES SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

I think that was for the 8-14 day forecast (I cut out a lot of stuff). We're flying out of IAH to Denver on Tuesday...hope icing doesn't delay us.

Actually that is for tomorrow.

[wxman57]

COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT DIVES SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

I think that was for the 8-14 day forecast (I cut out a lot of stuff). We're flying out of IAH to Denver on Tuesday...hope icing doesn't delay us.

I see nothing but high pressure and clear weather along your route to Denver on Tuesday.

[unome]

http://www.youtube.com/user/impactweath ... 5GX23ct8Tc

not expecting freezing rain for the southern US per their forecast today

[srainhoutx]

The GFS continues to advertize some interesting weather across TX on Sunday/Monday. To our N, there appears to be some chances of wintry weather, while further S we are looking mighty wet via that model...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Canadian suggests a very wet pattern on Sunday/Monday. That model also suggests some wintry weather chances across parts of TX as the Upper Air disturbance begins to push across the Lone Star State...

01192011 12Z GEM 12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

01192011 12Z GEM f162.gif

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggests more wintry weather chances across TX next week as well. That model also suggest more Upper Air energy to the W. Next week looks mighty interesting at this range.

[wxman57]

Those winter weather chances appear to be in north Texas, not our area, though. We'd need a good bit colder air to move over southeast Texas for us to get a shot at anything frozen.

[redneckweather]

It will probably be a good idea to mention 'where in Texas' the wintry possibilities are so people reading this forum won't be confused thinking it could be local. Texas is a HUGE state. '

[srainhoutx]

I think our vast knowledgeable membership can figure out where in TX by looking at the guidance, redneckweather. I'll leave the forecasting to our Pro Mets as to the who and where in the Lone Star State may or may not be affected. Some folks just seem to always forget that our membership/weather forum viewers spread well beyond SE TX. It was that way long before I became a member here and while Dan still ran things by himself. Just sayin...

[redneckweather]

Sorry but you are wrong srain. I've been reading this weather forum for a pretty long time and have noticed that a lot of the members here are NOT model readers (this includes members from other parts of the state) and come here to see what the weather is doing from people like you who post model maps and forecast discussions every day. I figured since you post model runs daily of the exciting weather that is coming that you would know where in Texas wintry precip chances could happen via model guidance? In other words, if a certain model is showing wintry precip in the short term or extended, why not just mention where in Texas it is showing it instead of saying 'somewhere in Texas' everytime? Common sense, no?

[Portastorm]

Well, I'm not in Houston and I do not come over here to have srain tell me where the weather is going to happen. As an active member of this forum and Storm 2K, I know how to read computer models. I'm more curious about the local weather observations that occur and to see what a different group of folks are looking at weather-wise. If I want a forecast, I'll pay special attention to what Wxman57 or Candy Cane says.

Also, my sense is that srain will narrow down the precip chances to areas like "north Texas" or "west Texas" or whatever.

I have found the meteorological acumen of this forum to be much higher than it used to be with a lot of knowledgeable weather folk talking about what they love.

[biggerbyte]

Dang.. Bang the srain day... It's okay.. Most of us think you are doing a fantastic job.

Much appreciated.

[Portastorm]

Dang.. Bang the srain day... It's okay.. Most of us think you are doing a fantastic job.

Much appreciated.

Just to clarify ... I think srain is doing a fantastic job as well. I was merely expressing some disagreement with redneckweather's assertions.

This is a great weather forum!

[redneckweather]

Totally missing the point. Srain knows that I appreciate the info that he puts out because I have said so many of times. And no, I'm not asking him to make a forecast Portastorm...I never said that. No need to read into something that is NOT there. Does this say anything about him making a forecast?




I figured since you post model runs daily of the exciting weather that is coming that you would know where in Texas wintry precip chances could happen via model guidance? In other words, if a certain model is showing wintry precip in the short term or extended, why not just mention where in Texas it is showing it instead of saying 'somewhere in Texas' everytime? Common sense, no?

I thought I put it as plainly as I could. If you are going to say that a model shows wintry precip in Texas, just mention where in Texas, since it's a big SOB! Simple enough?

This has NOTHING to do with making a forecast...just simply showing what a model is showing in simple one sentence terms. Good gosh.

Also I bet at least 80% of the members here are not model readers...more on the lines of just your everyday average weather enthusiasts.

[srainhoutx]

Constructive critiquing noted. Moving on…