May 2025
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5374
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
I mean i think it was fine for the WPC to put out 3-5 inches across se texas, id argue they were pretty spot on, inclusing tommorow, the majority of se texas will be in that 3-5 inch range for the entirety of this event, some obviously will have lower or higher totals than that, but in general i think the WPC’s forecast was pretty spot on for se texas
Look out along the coast. Watching for this to creep inland later.
Matagorda County got crushed this morning. They needed it. I’m sure the farmers and gardeners out there are waking up very happy and thankful this morning.
Thank God the models were quite a bit off here for coastal counties. Goodness, the rain is so badly needed down here. Yay.
KHGX radar down again?
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6064
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
240
FXUS64 KHGX 071137
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025
Another day of unsettled weather is expected today, but unlike
yesterday which saw most showers and thunderstorm activity north
of I-10, areas south of I-10 will have the highest
coverage/likelihood today. The primary window of showers and
thunderstorms will be dawn through the early afternoon as a
shortwave trough moves up the coast. Additional showers and
thunderstorms will be possible during the late afternoon/evening,
but coverage will be fairly isolated. While the likelihood of
severe thunderstorms was much higher yesterday, there may be an
isolated strong to severe storm later this morning as that
shortwave passes through. Large hail and gusty winds will be the
primary concerns, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. SPC has
a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for areas
south of I-10, and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) northwards for
today. Rainfall totals of up to 1-3" will be possible along the
coast with most area north of I-10 likely seeing just a Trace to
0.5". A lull in the activity is expected tonight, but additional
scattered showers and storms are expected along the coast on
Thursday due to lingering moisture, daytime heating, and passing
weakness aloft.
Temperatures this afternoon are expected to rise into the low to
mid 80s for most of the region with overnight lows tonight in the
mid 60s to low 70s. Temperatures will likely climb a couple more
degrees Thursday afternoon due to increased sunshine with highs
in the mid to upper 80s.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025
While conditions will not be as favorable for severe weather or
heavy rainfall, a meandering cutoff upper-level low over east Texas
into Louisiana will bring continued chances of showers and
thunderstorms Friday into Saturday. Best chances will be east of I-
45 and down along the coast. Drier air filtering into the backside
of the low will end rain chances by Sunday, but that low doesn`t
exit to the east until Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure builds
over the Southern Plains. This ridge remains over Texas for much of
the remainder of the week leading to low rain chances, but
increasing temperatures.
Speaking of temperatures, they will be on the cooler side Friday
through the weekend thanks to northerly winds on the back side of
the stalled low pressures system to our east. High temperatures
Friday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, then down into the mid
70s over the weekend before steadily increasing with the start of
the work week. High temperatures by Tuesday will be back into the
mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows will see a similar trend: upper 50s
to mid 60s through the weekend, then rising into the upper 60s to
low 70s by Tuesday night.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025
A stalled boundary along the coast is triggering showers and
thunderstorms that will impact mainly LBX and GLS through the
morning, but some isolated storms may reach up towards SGR and
HOU. Heavy rainfall reducing visibility, frequent lightning, and
hail are possible with these storms. Showers and thunderstorms
will end from west to east by the early afternoon. Generally IFR
conditions with CIGs around 500-800ft will persist through the
mid-morning before scattering out leading to VFR conditions by
around 16z. VFR conditions will continue through the evening, but
MVFR to IFR conditions will return tonight and continue into
Thursday morning with low CIGs around 700-1500ft and patchy fog.
Generally light easterly winds will persist through the period.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 153 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025
A few isolated showers or storms are possible through the overnight
period tonight, but activity is expected to redevelop across much of
the coastal waters by daybreak. Gusty winds, hail, and locally heavy
rainfall reducing visibility will be possible within any strong to
severe storms that develop. The thunderstorm activity will shift to
the east by the afternoon with a lull expected this evening into
tonight. However, a meandering upper level low will bring continued
rain chances through at least Saturday before drier conditions
finally bring an end to the rain chances.
While the moderate to strong onshore winds have ended, lingering
elevated seas around 5-8ft will persist through this morning, so the
Small Craft Advisory has been extended for this offshore waters.
Easterly winds around 10kt with occasional gusts to 20kt will
continue through Thursday before light northerly winds develop
that will persist through the weekend.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 63 84 61 / 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 84 68 87 66 / 30 20 30 30
Galveston (GLS) 80 73 80 71 / 90 40 40 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Fowler
FXUS64 KHGX 071137
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025
Another day of unsettled weather is expected today, but unlike
yesterday which saw most showers and thunderstorm activity north
of I-10, areas south of I-10 will have the highest
coverage/likelihood today. The primary window of showers and
thunderstorms will be dawn through the early afternoon as a
shortwave trough moves up the coast. Additional showers and
thunderstorms will be possible during the late afternoon/evening,
but coverage will be fairly isolated. While the likelihood of
severe thunderstorms was much higher yesterday, there may be an
isolated strong to severe storm later this morning as that
shortwave passes through. Large hail and gusty winds will be the
primary concerns, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. SPC has
a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for areas
south of I-10, and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) northwards for
today. Rainfall totals of up to 1-3" will be possible along the
coast with most area north of I-10 likely seeing just a Trace to
0.5". A lull in the activity is expected tonight, but additional
scattered showers and storms are expected along the coast on
Thursday due to lingering moisture, daytime heating, and passing
weakness aloft.
Temperatures this afternoon are expected to rise into the low to
mid 80s for most of the region with overnight lows tonight in the
mid 60s to low 70s. Temperatures will likely climb a couple more
degrees Thursday afternoon due to increased sunshine with highs
in the mid to upper 80s.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025
While conditions will not be as favorable for severe weather or
heavy rainfall, a meandering cutoff upper-level low over east Texas
into Louisiana will bring continued chances of showers and
thunderstorms Friday into Saturday. Best chances will be east of I-
45 and down along the coast. Drier air filtering into the backside
of the low will end rain chances by Sunday, but that low doesn`t
exit to the east until Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure builds
over the Southern Plains. This ridge remains over Texas for much of
the remainder of the week leading to low rain chances, but
increasing temperatures.
Speaking of temperatures, they will be on the cooler side Friday
through the weekend thanks to northerly winds on the back side of
the stalled low pressures system to our east. High temperatures
Friday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, then down into the mid
70s over the weekend before steadily increasing with the start of
the work week. High temperatures by Tuesday will be back into the
mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows will see a similar trend: upper 50s
to mid 60s through the weekend, then rising into the upper 60s to
low 70s by Tuesday night.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025
A stalled boundary along the coast is triggering showers and
thunderstorms that will impact mainly LBX and GLS through the
morning, but some isolated storms may reach up towards SGR and
HOU. Heavy rainfall reducing visibility, frequent lightning, and
hail are possible with these storms. Showers and thunderstorms
will end from west to east by the early afternoon. Generally IFR
conditions with CIGs around 500-800ft will persist through the
mid-morning before scattering out leading to VFR conditions by
around 16z. VFR conditions will continue through the evening, but
MVFR to IFR conditions will return tonight and continue into
Thursday morning with low CIGs around 700-1500ft and patchy fog.
Generally light easterly winds will persist through the period.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 153 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025
A few isolated showers or storms are possible through the overnight
period tonight, but activity is expected to redevelop across much of
the coastal waters by daybreak. Gusty winds, hail, and locally heavy
rainfall reducing visibility will be possible within any strong to
severe storms that develop. The thunderstorm activity will shift to
the east by the afternoon with a lull expected this evening into
tonight. However, a meandering upper level low will bring continued
rain chances through at least Saturday before drier conditions
finally bring an end to the rain chances.
While the moderate to strong onshore winds have ended, lingering
elevated seas around 5-8ft will persist through this morning, so the
Small Craft Advisory has been extended for this offshore waters.
Easterly winds around 10kt with occasional gusts to 20kt will
continue through Thursday before light northerly winds develop
that will persist through the weekend.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 63 84 61 / 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 84 68 87 66 / 30 20 30 30
Galveston (GLS) 80 73 80 71 / 90 40 40 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Fowler
-
TexasBreeze
- Posts: 1010
- Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
- Location: NW Houston, TX
- Contact:
Looks like a wrap for today and also starting next week a heat ridge sets up shop over the area. Summer pattern is awaiting!
GrossTexasBreeze wrote: ↑Wed May 07, 2025 8:48 am Looks like a wrap for today and also starting next week a heat ridge sets up shop over the area. Summer pattern is awaiting!
No rain for the foreseeable future (except possibly late weekend timeframe, if the Euro is to be believed)....highs approaching or surpassing the 90-degree mark starting next week. The Summer Suck is, indeed, here.
Hopefully, some yet-unclassified system is lurking out there waiting to be picked up by the modeling.
Hopefully, some yet-unclassified system is lurking out there waiting to be picked up by the modeling.
Good news about the rain - glad all were albe to partke. I'm estimating about 8.50 inches in the last week.
Bad news about the Big Suck.
Cherry and apple trees are blooming up here in Minneapolis.
Bad news about the Big Suck.
Cherry and apple trees are blooming up here in Minneapolis.
The ridging doesn't really start until May 15. Forecasts that far off could change.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5374
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Pretty good confidence that summer is going to be making an appearance next week, could see some highs in the low 90’s across se texas with even some 100-105 degree temps in west texas, also starting to look pretty dry in the extended period, so yall know the drill by now, the annual drought pattern commences lol
Well, I know you've been harping a lot on this Summer being relatively mild (as far as recent blast furnaces down here have been) and somewhat more rainy, but I'll believe that when I see it. LolStratton20 wrote: ↑Wed May 07, 2025 2:11 pm Pretty good confidence that summer is going to be making an appearance next week, could see some highs in the low 90’s across se texas with even some 100-105 degree temps in west texas, also starting to look pretty dry in the extended period, so yall know the drill by now, the annual drought pattern commences lol
I expect 0.50 - 1" of rain every 2-3 days and no high temps above 95 degrees. K?
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5374
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Pas_Bon ill do my best hahaha
, but think enso neutral conditions persist until autumn when we should go back to a weak la nina I believe, hopefully neutral conditions can keep our summer in check in regards to heat but also maybe more opportunities for rainfall, we will see
, but think enso neutral conditions persist until autumn when we should go back to a weak la nina I believe, hopefully neutral conditions can keep our summer in check in regards to heat but also maybe more opportunities for rainfall, we will see-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6064
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
999
FXUS64 KHGX 081135
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025
Today will start out with partly cloudy skies and little to no
rain chances, but an upper-level disturbance moving in from the
west will cause rain changes to increase heading into this evening
and overnight tonight. The majority of the showers and
thunderstorms will occur south of our area, but areas south of
I-10 but west of I-45 will have some activity overnight tonight.
Isolated strong to even severe thunderstorms will be possible
capable of producing hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy
rainfall, but most thunderstorms will be sub-severe. The showers
and thunderstorms will push off into the coastal waters by
daybreak Friday with just some isolated showers possible Friday
afternoon.
High temperatures this afternoon will rise into the mid to upper
80s with overnight lows tonight dropping down into the mid to
upper 60s. Cooler northerly winds are expected on Friday leading
to high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s and low
temperatures in the low to mid 60s Friday night.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025
Chances for showers and storms remain in the forecast on Saturday as
an upper level cutoff low remains overhead through at least Sunday
night. Rain chances will be the highest along and off the coast due
to greater moisture availability. Those rain chances do move further
inland (mainly east of I-45) during the afternoon hours on Saturday
as daytime heating adds an ingredient into the mix. Keep in mind
that we`ll be in northerly flow behind a departing frontal boundary
that pushes through during the short term period...this means that
drier air will be gradually working its way into Southeast Texas.
Mother`s Day has trended drier, so we`re anticipating a great
weather day for all of the moms out there. With an upper level low
remaining overhead through the weekend, we`re expecting another
round of dare I say..."chilly" temperatures?!
With rain chances in the forecast along with northerly winds, high
temperatures on Friday and through the weekend will be in the upper
70s to low 80s...but it`s the low temperatures that will be the talk
of the town! Going into late Friday as the upper level low drifts
overhead, 850mb temperatures will be well below normal near or below
the 10th percentile (NAEFS/GEFS). With drier air moving in along
with partly cloudy skies overnight, we`ll get to see another round
of low temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to the low 60s over the
weekend. All good things must come to an end, and it`ll be no
different for this brief period of below normal temperatures. The
upper level low will be nudged eastward by a developing ridge that
takes over through the middle of next week leading to an upward
trend in temperatures. At least rain chances will be smushed down to
zero thanks to increasing subsidence!
The upward temperature trend takes high temperatures into the upper
80s on Monday, upper 80s to low 90s on Tuesday...and it doesn`t stop
there. You can use your imagination to figure out what that means!
Totally unrelated sidebar...but College Station (Howdy Ags!) hasn`t
reached the mid 90s yet this year...very interesting (hint hint).
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025
Some patchy fog has developed this morning at CXO bringing MVFR
conditions there, but otherwise VFR conditions persisted through
the night and will continue to persist through the remainder of
the period. SCT low clouds this morning will give way to CLR skies
this afternoon. ENE winds around 8-12kts will develop by the late
morning and continue through sunset, then light northerly winds
develop overnight tonight into Friday morning. A passing
disturbance may bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms to
LBX and GLS late this evening into overnight tonight.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025
Moderate winds and elevated seas will prevail through tonight in the
wake of a storm system from earlier in the day on Wednesday. As a
result, a Small Craft Advisory continues for the offshore waters
through early Thursday morning. Winds will remain easterly through
Thursday, before becoming more northerly by Friday. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday. A few thunderstorms
could be strong, capable of winds over 40 knots and locally higher
seas. Over the weekend, northerly winds could occasionally become
moderate and approach the caution flag threshold along with
lingering chances for showers and storms. Winds shift to westerly on
late Sunday and southerly going into early next week. Winds and seas
are expected to go on a gradual increasing trend into the middle of
the week and may approach the caution flag threshold at times.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 64 79 60 / 10 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 87 68 82 64 / 20 20 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 72 81 69 / 20 30 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ370.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 081135
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025
Today will start out with partly cloudy skies and little to no
rain chances, but an upper-level disturbance moving in from the
west will cause rain changes to increase heading into this evening
and overnight tonight. The majority of the showers and
thunderstorms will occur south of our area, but areas south of
I-10 but west of I-45 will have some activity overnight tonight.
Isolated strong to even severe thunderstorms will be possible
capable of producing hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy
rainfall, but most thunderstorms will be sub-severe. The showers
and thunderstorms will push off into the coastal waters by
daybreak Friday with just some isolated showers possible Friday
afternoon.
High temperatures this afternoon will rise into the mid to upper
80s with overnight lows tonight dropping down into the mid to
upper 60s. Cooler northerly winds are expected on Friday leading
to high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s and low
temperatures in the low to mid 60s Friday night.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025
Chances for showers and storms remain in the forecast on Saturday as
an upper level cutoff low remains overhead through at least Sunday
night. Rain chances will be the highest along and off the coast due
to greater moisture availability. Those rain chances do move further
inland (mainly east of I-45) during the afternoon hours on Saturday
as daytime heating adds an ingredient into the mix. Keep in mind
that we`ll be in northerly flow behind a departing frontal boundary
that pushes through during the short term period...this means that
drier air will be gradually working its way into Southeast Texas.
Mother`s Day has trended drier, so we`re anticipating a great
weather day for all of the moms out there. With an upper level low
remaining overhead through the weekend, we`re expecting another
round of dare I say..."chilly" temperatures?!
With rain chances in the forecast along with northerly winds, high
temperatures on Friday and through the weekend will be in the upper
70s to low 80s...but it`s the low temperatures that will be the talk
of the town! Going into late Friday as the upper level low drifts
overhead, 850mb temperatures will be well below normal near or below
the 10th percentile (NAEFS/GEFS). With drier air moving in along
with partly cloudy skies overnight, we`ll get to see another round
of low temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to the low 60s over the
weekend. All good things must come to an end, and it`ll be no
different for this brief period of below normal temperatures. The
upper level low will be nudged eastward by a developing ridge that
takes over through the middle of next week leading to an upward
trend in temperatures. At least rain chances will be smushed down to
zero thanks to increasing subsidence!
The upward temperature trend takes high temperatures into the upper
80s on Monday, upper 80s to low 90s on Tuesday...and it doesn`t stop
there. You can use your imagination to figure out what that means!
Totally unrelated sidebar...but College Station (Howdy Ags!) hasn`t
reached the mid 90s yet this year...very interesting (hint hint).
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025
Some patchy fog has developed this morning at CXO bringing MVFR
conditions there, but otherwise VFR conditions persisted through
the night and will continue to persist through the remainder of
the period. SCT low clouds this morning will give way to CLR skies
this afternoon. ENE winds around 8-12kts will develop by the late
morning and continue through sunset, then light northerly winds
develop overnight tonight into Friday morning. A passing
disturbance may bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms to
LBX and GLS late this evening into overnight tonight.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025
Moderate winds and elevated seas will prevail through tonight in the
wake of a storm system from earlier in the day on Wednesday. As a
result, a Small Craft Advisory continues for the offshore waters
through early Thursday morning. Winds will remain easterly through
Thursday, before becoming more northerly by Friday. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday. A few thunderstorms
could be strong, capable of winds over 40 knots and locally higher
seas. Over the weekend, northerly winds could occasionally become
moderate and approach the caution flag threshold along with
lingering chances for showers and storms. Winds shift to westerly on
late Sunday and southerly going into early next week. Winds and seas
are expected to go on a gradual increasing trend into the middle of
the week and may approach the caution flag threshold at times.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 64 79 60 / 10 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 87 68 82 64 / 20 20 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 72 81 69 / 20 30 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ370.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Batiste