January 2025

[Cpv17]

This is still the best signal for snow I’ve probably ever seen in my life in this 7-10 day range. So I think there’s a decent chance it happens. I remember the 2004 Christmas snow, the GFS actually had it on one run, but it was super long range, and I don’t think it started showing back up till it got within 3 or so days. 2004 was about the time I first started looking at models. The 2009 and 2017 events, the models didn’t really show them happening till we got inside 2 days or so, if I remember correctly.

[don]

Yep the GFS sniffed out the 2004 Christmas Eve snowstorm 2 weeks before it happened. Models sniffed out the 2009 storm within 4-5 days of it happening. I believe the GFS was the first model to see the December 2009 snowstorm. And the 2017 event didn't show up in the models until like 48 hours before it happened LOL.

[djmike]

omg

IMG_3316.jpeg

[Stormlover2020]

Euro shows notta this run

[Cpv17]

Euro shows notta this run

Yeah, it cut off the low from the northern stream. Not gonna work if that happens.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

omgIMG_3316.jpeg

Thomas a continent wide glacier. Reminds me of 2021

[Brazoriatx979]

Euro shows notta this run

Yeah, it cut off the low from the northern stream. Not gonna work if that happens.

What about the gulf low?

[Stratton20]

Not even remotely concerned about that Euro run, as far as im concerned thats one of those extreme swing and a miss garbage runs, it completely misses the cold, remember when the euro failed miserably back in february of 2021? GFS/ CMC/ GEPS agree on the shortwave moving across the state, not westward

[Cpv17]

Euro shows notta this run

Yeah, it cut off the low from the northern stream. Not gonna work if that happens.

What about the gulf low?

Don or someone else can correct me if I’m wrong, but I think we need that shortwave to phase with the northern stream and eject across the state to create a Gulf low.

[walsean1]

Not a meteorologist but I don’t think models handle Arctic air masses well. I know this is not 2021 but the news stations didn’t catch on to the storm until about 4 days out. The had us warmer which was incorrect. Once the first storm system moved through the Midwest and dumps its snow, the next shot of cold air will be moving over snow pack and will be more refrigerated. I think we will be in more danger for a Freezing Rain Storm. February 2024, meteorologist underestimated the small ice storm Houston had as temperatures dropped during the morning hours to below freezing.

[Stratton20]

No you are correct, global models more often than not, underestimate the strength of the cold, but also how fast it moves to the south, i definitely believe it will at least be several degrees colder than what is being shown by the globals , once the mesocale models get into range, we will have a better idea of how cold it could get, and that can make a huge difference with any shortwave moving through the area

[Brazoriatx979]

That 12z euro doesn't look that great but it’s still a long ways out. No biggie

[Stratton20]

Ah storm2k everyone is freaking out because of the EPS and saying we arent going to get cold lol, but in my opinion the GEPS might be closer to reality, yeah it has a cold bias, but it also has done pretty well with seeing these cold airmasses

[Brazoriatx979]

When is our source region suppose to get cold? So far I've old found -24

[biggerbyte]

Oh boy..

[Cpv17]

The dreaded middle range is once again screwing with everyone.

[Cpv17]

When is our source region suppose to get cold? So far I've old found -24

Probably this weekend.

[sswinney]

Not a meteorologist but I don’t think models handle Arctic air masses well. I know this is not 2021 but the news stations didn’t catch on to the storm until about 4 days out. The had us warmer which was incorrect. Once the first storm system moved through the Midwest and dumps its snow, the next shot of cold air will be moving over snow pack and will be more refrigerated. I think we will be in more danger for a Freezing Rain Storm. February 2024, meteorologist underestimated the small ice storm Houston had as temperatures dropped during the morning hours to below freezing.

This is what I wanted to discuss too. We have many times in the past talked about how cold arctic air will spill down instead of getting pushed to the east as much. There will be some established snow pack from this weekend. So should be less moderation. We see all the time that the models are too slow and too weak when it comes to cold Canadian/Arctic air. I’m not sure that has changed in the 20 some odd years that I have been on this forum (going back to the KHOU days). I think this happens every time we get a cold blast.

One of things that I’ve always heard is to look at the source region, blocking, and snowpack. I say all this that we should be prepared and plan for freezing (plants, pets, pipes). Now if we get precipitation that’s another story.

[vci_guy2003]

What does “oh boy” mean biggerbyte?

[tireman4]

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