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weatherrabbit wrote:

Rip76 wrote:What's the last storm to hit Matagorda directly?

going back into history could go back to the '42 or '45 storm...

Direct hit has been a while...Carla nailed them good in 61 with the right front quad.

djmike wrote:Ok, question...why is there such a difference/split in models for the 8pm on these two sites? One has alot of models and the other has just a couple...please explain why some show and some dont. Which are the most reliable for this particular system? Thanks

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realti ... _early.png

and

http://www.stormpulse.com/

It's really the GFS and GFS-based models (like the GFDL) taking the northern track and all others down south. It's all dependent on how each model is initialized. I'd trust the Euro over the GFDL (more southern track) as they more carefully initialize the Euro.

Not feeling too confident that the NE side will even see a drop from Don! Hopefully we can atleast get some home grown thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.

weatherrabbit wrote:

Rip76 wrote:What's the last storm to hit Matagorda directly?

going back into history could go back to the '42 or '45 storm...

August 1945 Hurricane was an average sized hurricane. It was a rain maker as it dumped up to 20 inches of rain.

NWS Lake Charles-Texas Hurricane History
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/lch/trop ... istory.pdf

NGS Flood Report
http://floodsafety.com/texas/USGSdemo/1950to1925.htm

jeff wrote:

weatherrabbit wrote:

Rip76 wrote:What's the last storm to hit Matagorda directly?

going back into history could go back to the '42 or '45 storm...

Direct hit has been a while...Carla nailed them good in 61 with the right front quad.

Carla was a very large hurricane, probably one of the largest besides Gilbert, Igor, Ike, and Katrina.

Ptarmigan wrote:

jeff wrote:

weatherrabbit wrote: going back into history could go back to the '42 or '45 storm...

Direct hit has been a while...Carla nailed them good in 61 with the right front quad.

Carla was a very large hurricane, probably one of the largest besides Gilbert, Igor, Ike, and Katrina.

If you look at Impact Weather's hurricane intensity scale, which factors-in both size and intensity (windspeed), I believe Carla tops the list:

http://www.impactweather.com/hsi/

I actually think this thing has a decent shot at making landfall further up the coast than forecasted. And im only wishcasting a little bit... (We need rain!). All the years i have tracked storms the models always overestimate the strength of the high. Even Ike went to the right of where forecasted! However it is kind of counterintuitive to think this high will weaken considering it has had a death grip on us for months.

we will see

Snowman wrote:I actually think this thing has a decent shot at making landfall further up the coast than forecasted. And im only wishcasting a little bit... (We need rain!). All the years i have tracked storms the models always overestimate the strength of the high. Even Ike went to the right of where forecasted! However it is kind of counterintuitive to think this high will weaken considering it has had a death grip on us for months.

we will see

You never know. Don is looking sickly tonight due to some upper-level convergence. If it falls apart on us, the chances of a sheared mess up this way increase. I'd gladly take it, though.

jasons wrote:

Snowman wrote:I actually think this thing has a decent shot at making landfall further up the coast than forecasted. And im only wishcasting a little bit... (We need rain!). All the years i have tracked storms the models always overestimate the strength of the high. Even Ike went to the right of where forecasted! However it is kind of counterintuitive to think this high will weaken considering it has had a death grip on us for months.

we will see

You never know. Don is looking sickly tonight due to some upper-level convergence. If it falls apart on us, the chances of a sheared mess up this way increase. I'd gladly take it, though.

Yes i would gladly take a mess of rain over a landfall south of corpus. I would really love to see 2-4 inches at my house. I would be so happy if i got 6

Interested in what Doc has to say about Don

TS watches issued from San Luis Pass to Port Mansfield

djjordan wrote:Interested in what Doc has to say about Don

what did he say....??

Don is not that sickly looking, in my opinion.

ticka1 wrote:

djjordan wrote:Interested in what Doc has to say about Don

what did he say....??

Hopefully somebody else watched because I missed it ....... I knew he would be on with Gene but I had to run out and do something. Anyone know what Doc Said tonight?

Jim?

LOL no not Jim hehe ...... Dr. Neil ... but then again I know you knew that.

Microwave pass suggests LLC still intact...ASCAT agrees as well...

Welp, I'm liking the latest trends. Might even be able to work this weekend. Hopefully this isn't the slight nudge left before the big nudge right I've seen so many times in the Gulf.

First vortex message sent and it appears we do not have a vertically stacked system...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 12:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2011
Storm Name: Don (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 03
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 11:55:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°40'N 89°29'W (23.6667N 89.4833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 438 miles (704 km) to the S (175°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,437m (4,715ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 30kts (~ 34.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the WNW (297°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 358° at 19kts (From the N at ~ 21.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the W (266°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,534m (5,033ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 19kts (~ 21.9mph) in the west quadrant at 11:54:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) in the east quadrant at 11:57:10Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SW (234°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WINDS VISUALLY 45 KTS SOME RAIN CONTAMINATION ON SFMR
FIX MADE INSIDE CONVECTIVE BAND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ACTUAL CTR

12Z early track...again, some flip flopping seems to be going on...