October 2024

[Cpv17]

It’s going to go from bad to worse. I think I started posting about summer of 2025 back in April or May of this year. Get ready.

It’s not just in Texas either. I’d say 2/3 of the country is in some sort of drought.

[jasons2k]

It’s going to go from bad to worse. I think I started posting about summer of 2025 back in April or May of this year. Get ready.

It’s not just in Texas either. I’d say 2/3 of the country is in some sort of drought.

Pretty close- I just looked it up, only 22.5% of the continental US is not in some sort of drought category right now.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentM ... aspx?conus

[Stratton20]

Georgia putting a good old fashion spanking on Texas, this one could get ugly fast, that georgia defense is out for blood

[Cpv17]

Gonna be a bad sports weekend for me after the last two going perfectly. I feel the Texans are gonna lose tomorrow as well. Too many players out. I feel like Stroud will have to play out of his mind for us to have a chance.

[Stratton20]

Dare I say it? Models are starting to show a cut off low developing over the state in the 9-10 day range, possibly re introducing rain chances, fingers crossed this continues to show up in future runs

[DoctorMu]

High and Dry.

Maybe November.

Although I prefer October wet and November dry.

Texarrakis lives on!

[DoctorMu]

Euro has a low riding up a FROPA about Nov 3. I actually don't want that much rain in November. It's usually our best Chamber of Commerce Month with clearer skies and mild to to cooler temps.

90°F prog for Wednesday looks like it's going to happen.

[jasons2k]

Euro has a low riding up a FROPA about Nov 3. I actually don't want that much rain in November. It's usually our best Chamber of Commerce Month with clearer skies and mild to to cooler temps.

90°F prog for Wednesday looks like it's going to happen.

It can be Chamber of Commerce weather all it wants to after a nice soaking first.

[Pas_Bon]

Euro has a low riding up a FROPA about Nov 3. I actually don't want that much rain in November. It's usually our best Chamber of Commerce Month with clearer skies and mild to to cooler temps.

90°F prog for Wednesday looks like it's going to happen.

It can be Chamber of Commerce weather all it wants to after a nice soaking first.

Told my daughter the same today. I’ll gladly take 90° temps for a bit longer if it will just RAIN. Ugh.

[tireman4]

008
FXUS64 KHGX 211033
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
533 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

Ridging over the East/Central CONUS will continue to bring warm
and benign weather through the first half of the work week. While
the mid/upper level ridge will be flattened by a disturbance
passing through the Mid Mississippi River Valley, little change in
thicknesses and southeasterly winds suggest continued warming
through Tuesday. Highs should be in the 80s inland and upper 70s
along the coast today, reaching the lower 90s on Tuesday. Lows for
tonight/Tuesday morning will be in the lower 50s/lower 60s inland
and mid 60s/lower 70s along the coast. As additional moisture is
funneled into the area, lows for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning
will be in the upper 50s/lower 60s inland and mid 60s/lower 70s
along the coast. With increasing moisture, patchy fog will be
possible during the overnight/early morning hours of each day.
Strong capping and PWs under 1" should continue to keep SE Texas
rain-free throughout this time frame.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

Quiet weather with near to slightly above normal temperatures are
the main weather story in the long term. Southeast TX continues
to be influenced by the sfc high anchored across the eastern CONUS
and a moderate mid to upper level ridge. This ridge will flatten
out a bit by Wednesday, resulting in some passing vort maxes.
Local impacts, on the other hand, remain very minimal with only a
few clouds. Global models continue to bring a more diffuse frontal
boundary towards the end of the week/early weekend. In fact, the
FROPA washes out or weakens more before it reaches our region.
Therefore, warm and dry conditions will persist through most of
the long term. Highs will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s this
week, with only a few degrees "cooler" during the weekend.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(09Z TAF Amendment)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

Light winds will strengthen and shift SE/ESE late this
morning/this afternoon. Winds diminish again later this evening.
Isolated patchy fog will be possible overnight into early Tuesday
morning. VFR conditions with few/scattered high clouds should
dominate the TAF period.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

Winds and seas will continue to weaken and subside today.
Persistent east to northeast winds will keep the risk of elevated
water levels along area beaches, especially during times of high
tides through early this week. A risk of strong rip currents also
persist through early Tuesday. Overall, expect light to
occasionally onshore winds and low seas with relatively dry
conditions through the week.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 57 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 85 60 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 79 70 80 71 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM

[DoctorMu]

There isn't a consensus, but AI - Euro, CMC, GEPS Ensemble are signaling rain along the FROPA in early November.

In the meantime, smoke 'em if you got 'em, but not outside (burn ban)!

[DoctorMu]

GFS is signaling the Chill Machine after the FROPA, and Euro isn't far behind. The early November front means business. Euro brings more rain, before the chill so we'll root for that one. My backyard is pretty desiccated.

[Cpv17]

GFS is signaling the Chill Machine after the FROPA, and Euro isn't far behind. The early November front means business. Euro brings more rain, before the chill so we'll root for that one. My backyard is pretty desiccated.

That’s the kind of abrupt weather change that makes people sick. No thanks to that, just give me some rain.

[DoctorMu]

That’s February. I’ve never been sick in a Texas Fall.

[Cpv17]

That’s February. I’ve never been sick in a Texas Fall.

Yeah, everyone’s different. For me it begins in October and ends in March. I never get sick during the warmer months. I started taking this Calcium, Magnesium, & Zinc (all in one) pill daily a few years ago though and it’s really helped me out. If I do get sick now it’s usually tolerable and the frequency in how often I get sick has been cut down from 3-5 times per year to 1-3 times a year.

[Ptarmigan]

Dare I say it? Models are starting to show a cut off low developing over the state in the 9-10 day range, possibly re introducing rain chances, fingers crossed this continues to show up in future runs

Let's hope for rain.

[Cpv17]

Dare I say it? Models are starting to show a cut off low developing over the state in the 9-10 day range, possibly re introducing rain chances, fingers crossed this continues to show up in future runs

Let's hope for rain.

I still don’t really see much rain for the next 10 days. At this point I think most of us will be lucky to get 2” before the end of the year.

[Stratton20]

CMC 00z has highs in the low 60’s for halloween, bring it on!

[Cpv17]

0z Euro actually has some rain for us. Not a lot, but we’ll definitely take it. Still far out though.

[tireman4]

782
FXUS64 KHGX 221146
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
646 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Our brief taste of more "typical" fall weather fades more into the
rearview, replaced by one of the other "typical" scenarios of a
transition season - the encroachment of either the season before
of the season after. In this case, summer decides to overstay its
welcome yet again.

Through it all, rain chances remain functionally nil as our dry
October carries on. This keeps the focus squarely on warm
temperatures, with sporadic patches of fog at times
overnight. While neither will reach extremes to cause widespread
alarm, it`s always good on a personal level to not push yourself
too hot with outdoor exertion during the hottest time of the day,
and to be alert to changing visibility for any early morning
travel.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

The average high temperatures for this time of year range from the
upper 70s to lower 80s...and we`ll definitely see those
temperatures...as we blow by them towards above average highs both
today and tomorrow. Indeed, our middle to upper 80s today will
likely nudge upwards a little more tomorrow to the upper 80s and
around 90 as mid-level ridging rebounds a bit from a dent given by
a passing northern stream trough.

Of course, that`s the thing about transition seasons - sometimes
we`re near those average values, but that`s just one of three
"typical" states - near the average, near the previous season, or
near the next season. And the short term (and, look, it`s probably
not much of a spoiler to say this continues into the long term) is
squarely in the hold of a summer that just doesn`t know how to say
goodbye. One nice thing, however, is that we do not have the
trademark obscene dewpoints that help define the SE Texas summer,
which at least helps us get some relief overnight as lows dip down
to around 60 rather than around 80.

This does bring us to one other feature that stands out in the
short term forecast, and that`s fog potential overnight. We`re not
as humid as the summertime, but there`s still a fair amount of
moisture, and we get right down to those dewpoints overnight. With
a light pressure gradient also giving us calm - or nearly calm -
overnight winds, patchy fog is something that looks to creep into
the picture early this morning, tonight, and potentially again
tomorrow night. We are not yet in the wintertime environment in
which we have to evaluate the potential for widespread, dense
fog...yet. But, for at least the next little bit, those early
morning commuters will want to be alert for shifting visibility,
especially around those local foggy spots (near ponds, lush green
areas, low spots, etc).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

The long term forecast remains stagnant, with a weak upper level
trough progged to bring northwesterly flow aloft through Sunday at
least. LREF Ensemble 1000mb-500mb thicknesses for the Houston area
gradually decline from around 572 dam on Thursday to around 568 dam
by Sunday, signaling a slight cooling trend with respect to highs.
This is further supported by a downward trend in 850mb temperatures,
with the Grand Ensemble mean decreasing from 17C on Thursday to 14C
by Sunday. Regardless, highs should generally be in the the 80s with
isolated spots approaching the 90 degree mark. Lows will be in the
upper 50s/60s and lower 70s along the coast. PWs of 0.6-0.9" and
stable conditions should keep SE Texas largely dry, though
guidance suggest that PWs will gradually trend upwards over the
weekend. Ensembles indicate that the upper level trough axis will
shift east of our area over the weekend, while a deeper upper
level trough digs into the Pacific Northwest/Great Basin next
week. Individual deterministic models are moreso out of phase by
this point, but still suggest the presence of more impulses aloft,
along with the potential for wetter weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Patchy fog cropping up, causing a reduction as far as LIFR in
particularly fog-prone areas (but no TAF sites for now), but VFR
prevails in less foggy spots. Have TEMPO`d low MVFR at CXO and
IFR at LBX given their problematic fog setup, but stay VFR or MVFR
elsewhere.

After a couple hours this should all clear up, with light/VRB
winds increasing for the afternoon to 7-10 knots and more S or SE
in direction, with some SCT cirrus.

Tonight, return to light/VRB or calm. Guidance is hitting fog
potential particularly hard, but will begin with sketching out
window of most probable fog impacts at MVFR level, and will rely
on later forecast cycles to refine impacts more precisely.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Light to moderate east to southeast winds can be expected through
the end of the work week, with seas dropping to 2 to 3 feet later
tonight. Winds and seas will increase slightly over the weekend into
the beginning of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 63 89 61 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 86 64 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 80 70 80 69 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...03