Remnants of Matthew Inland Over Southern Mexico

[srainhoutx]

Water Vapor Imagery should give us some clues as to how deep and how strong this cut off low situation will play out and the affects of drawing 95L N...

[Andrew]

Might want to look at the gfs. On my phone right now, but totally different compared to 00z run.

[biggerbyte]

So, what do you think, Andrew? I still say either it stays south into Mexico, or folks from LA to FL need to pay attention. I don't completely discount Texas, as of this writing, but the trend this year has been south and east of the state, for the most part. 2010 has certainly been the year of the troughs.

[biggerbyte]

For the newbies.. Two things to watch for. This could just continue west and die over land without ever doing much. It could also lift northward for a bit, get left behind by the trough and basically stall, meanwhile it waits for the ridge to build back in and expand westward. If that were to happen, then Texas, or more like LA would really need to pay attention.

These things are outside of the fact that the trough would pick it up and send it north to north east. As of today, we still do not know what exactly will be the final outcome.

Stay tuned...

[srainhoutx]

This one is going to be a very complex and difficult forecasting challenge. After a fairly close inspection of the new GFS it sends the vort of 95L to the BoC and a new dominate vort is the feature that crosses Cuba and on NE into the FL Straits. I suspect the GFS his struggling with the pattern. Long days ahead IMO.

[Andrew]

So, what do you think, Andrew? I still say either it stays south into Mexico, or folks from LA to FL need to pay attention. I don't completely discount Texas, as of this writing, but the trend this year has been south and east of the state, for the most part. 2010 has certainly been the year of the troughs.

I would be lying if I gave you an answer. Later tonight after looking at more models and I am not on my phone I will tell you what I think.

[srainhoutx]

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT 15 MPH TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA
AND COLOMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE
DAYS.

[biggerbyte]

So, what do you think, Andrew? I still say either it stays south into Mexico, or folks from LA to FL need to pay attention. I don't completely discount Texas, as of this writing, but the trend this year has been south and east of the state, for the most part. 2010 has certainly been the year of the troughs.

I would be lying if I gave you an answer. Later tonight after looking at more models and I am not on my phone I will tell you what I think.

I'm on an iPhone as well. Sure makes it difficult to get around the error correction, not to
mention view the maps. Forget about flash. Lol

Anyway!!!

Okay

Steve made a very good statement about the situation. It is, indeed, very complex.
Watup, srain?

[srainhoutx]

The Euro has come in with a weak low/lows interacting with the Yucatan and eventually heading NE. No real organization seen via guidance today so far. Perhaps tonight will look different.

[srainhoutx]

HPC:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
209 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

VALID 12Z SAT SEP 25 2010 - 12Z WED SEP 29 2010

THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN FEATURES AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITIONING
TYPHOON MALAKAS HELPING TO DEEPEN TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN
PACIFIC...WHICH IN TURN LEADS TO AMPLIFIED TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM
NEAR 140W...BUILDING RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN...AND
DEEPENING TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 UNITED
STATES. DAY-TO-DAY AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
FLEETING...THOUGH THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE SHOWN THE
BEST CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. PROBLEMS LIE WITH HOW
MUCH ENERGY DIVES OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA AND THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES BY SUNDAY...AND
WHETHER OR NOT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARING THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LURE THE SYSTEM MORE
NORTHEASTWARD. THE SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE
CONVERGED... SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL VARY QUITE A BIT WHEN BROWSING
THE 110 00Z MULTI-MODEL/12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. RECENT
GFS/GEFS MEAN RUNS ARE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
SPREAD WITH THE CANADIAN TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE SWINGS IN
THE GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY THAT LEANS TO A FARTHER EAST
SOLUTION... LEANED ON THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE CURRENT GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER THAN NORMAL IN THE
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST FROM NEXT MONDAY ONWARD.

DOWN SOUTH...THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN /POSSIBLY
INVEST 95L/ TO THE NORTH ACROSS EITHER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OR
WESTERN CUBA BY MID NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS BY FAR THE
STRONGEST/LARGEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WAS DISCOUNTED.
CONSIDERING THE TRENDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/EAST...IT APPEARS THAT
THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE HEADED NORTH TO NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST/FLORIDA IN 7-10 DAYS. THE POINTS AGREED UPON WITH NHC KEPT
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE MORNING ISSUANCE.

IT LOOKS WET ACROSS THE EAST FROM MONDAY ONWARD DUE TO THE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO LIE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. EVEN IN A GENERAL SENSE...THE
LOCATION AS TO WHERE IN THE PLAINS/MIDWEST/EAST WILL BE WETTEST
REMAINS UNCLEAR...THOUGH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RUNNING BY NEXT
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

ROTH/FRACASSO

[srainhoutx]

18Z Early Track...

[srainhoutx]

I had to chuckle viewing the 18Z GFS. Two storms for Florida...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

[srainhoutx]

AIRCRAFT DATA FROM NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION AND NASA RESEARCH
MISSIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED THIS
EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH TOWARD THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.



Also of note is the fact that 97E has been declared in the EPAC, W of where 95L will be in a day or so...interesting...

[Ptarmigan]

However, since 95L is over land, it is struggling as I type. Perhaps, it may never develop. We shall see.

[srainhoutx]

18Z GFDL...big shift after the GFS run from which this Hurricane model receives data output...

[Andrew]

Alright, as I said earlier I was going to look at some more model runs before posting what I thought. I first want to look at the gfs. Here are the following three runs:

6z:



12z:



18z:



As you can see from above the gfs seems to really be having problems with the the trof. Lately the gfs seems to be speeding up the trof which could really make forecasting the track that much harder. One thing I have also noticed about the gfs is how strong it makes the trof. That is another issue for it as you can see because the 12z and 18z shows a lot less intense of a trof compared to the 6z. What does this all mean? It means that the gfs (this is what I think) doesn't know what is going on. The gfs (along with many other models) is already to slow with the initial motion of 95L. The only model as of now that is keeping up with the speed of 95L is the Euro.




As you can see from the models above, there is going to be a fine fine fine line between if this storm makes landfall in the Caribbean or only skirts the coast. That is another huge aspect of this track. Intensity like all storms help to dictate where a storm is going to go. If this storm makes landfall in the Caribbean, then the trof could be less of an impact to it. Along with that if this storm ends up stalling in the middle of Central America, then it could very well just dissipate.

A couple other things that I would like to note is that I really really doubt the gfs's splitting of the system will happen. That is another reason I have trouble trusting the gfs. I think the Euro looks best as of now and has the best handle on the system, but still this system is going to give headaches to many people. I think there will be many flops with the models and that everyone in the gulf needs to keep an eye on it. At this point in time it would be foolish to narrow a particular area for landfall. We are in a La Nina year with many strange things happening. Everyone from the islands in the Caribbean to Mexico to Florida needs to keep an eye on this. We are still 140-200 hours out to landfall.

My personal thinking as of now is that this storm will dissipate into Central America and may reorganize later but even that looks doubtful. This thing is moving pretty fast right now and could be in the middle of central America when the steering currents end up weakening. Like I said before anything could happen and due to the time-frame we are looking at right now I wouldn't discount anything.

[biggerbyte]

Great talking points, Andrew. That scenario is certainly one of the possibilities. As a matter of fact, right now, if things do not change, that is exactly what this system will do.

[kayci]

WOW!!! I was quite a bit nervous about this system but I just learned ALOT from your past few posts and am not so nervous about this system. Ike is still a haunting thought with me, and appreciate everything yall are doing to keep me informed! Will still keep an eye out and be prepared regardless. Thanks Yall! You're awesome!

[srainhoutx]

Mighty close to a TD...

AL, 95, 2010092300, , BEST, 0, 128N, 716W, 30, 1007, DB, 34,

[srainhoutx]

18Z Ensembles suggest a split camp...

Edit to add I'm looking for that cutoff low...