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000
WTNT35 KNHC 061140
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
700 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

...HERMINE A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 95.3W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN BAY

ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS IN THE
WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI

Looks like we have rain headed our way...hopefully it won't be too much of a good thing.

Alot of activity happening to Hermine who was suppose to move straight into Mexico. Still could but with the cone shifting. Interesting to wake up too and to watch today.

Position between the 4 and 7 am advisory -

4 - 21.6N 95.0W

7 - 22.4N 95.3W

We won't get a exact fix until recon.

Scott747 wrote:Position between the 4 and 7 am advisory -

4 - 21.6N 95.0W

7 - 22.4N 95.3W

We won't get a exact fix until recon.

When is Recon flying and the motion looks to be a little more north then west.

Do they drive around Alaskan highways at extreme high rates of speed testing some weird looking contraption on the top of their roof?

I sure hope that highway event isn't the only thing that contraption sees this year!!

ticka1 wrote:

Scott747 wrote:Position between the 4 and 7 am advisory -

4 - 21.6N 95.0W

7 - 22.4N 95.3W

We won't get a exact fix until recon.

When is Recon flying and the motion looks to be a little more north then west.

Have to double check but it should be early this afternoon and in time for the 4pm package.

Heading - Agreed, still basically a northerly heading. The general turn to the NNW should evolve over the next 12 hrs.

Met Tech wrote:Do they drive around Alaskan highways at extreme high rates of speed testing some weird looking contraption on the top of their roof?

I sure hope that highway event isn't the only thing that contraption sees this year!!

lol. I was fixing to tell him to overnight it and I could give it a test drive. Of course this pesky thing barely has that much time.

Speaking of which. I need to get with ya about possibly building me one or helping me out in building one. I know you touched on how to do it in the chase thread but wasn't sure if you had already got a patent on it.

One of those off season things to do.

I am having a feeling that we are going to see more rain then we are asking for...That moisture in the Gulf looks pretty ugly on the radar...

I see that harris and waller is not in the flood watch, is that gonna change you think or do you think we wont get much rain.

MRG93415 wrote:I see that harris and waller is not in the flood watch, is that gonna change you think or do you think we wont get much rain.

That may change later. Houston/Galveston NWS said this morning that it may have to be shifted further E later today after evaluating new data.

I think alot of it depends on how much rain we get is where Hermine makes landfall. NHC has it for 1:00 a.m. Tuesday - which is tonight. Not a good way to start the work week tomorrow - with lots of rain - if we get it.

Looking more impressive with each new sat image...

I have to agree with you Srainhoutx. Glad I have no plans today and can watch TS Hermine .....

These are a couple of hour old now, but you can see that it was organizing rather well at that time. It appears that convection on the Western flank has increased greatly since that pass. Hopefully the next pass will catch most of the storm...

CDO (Central Dense Overcast) is developing rather quickly now. Hermine is located in an area of the Gulf that is virtually untouched since Alex. I would not be surprised to see this ramp up rather fast.

A quick scan of morning forecast discussions out of NWS South Texas offices looks like 6-12 inches of rainfall for the Valley and 5-10 for inland areas along the path of Hermine, including my area of AUS/SAT.

Those of us who wanted rain ... well, looks like we're going to get it and then some!

RECON will likely find a very impressive system when they arrive...

Edit to add that RECON is airborne and should arrive in about an hour and 30 to 45 minutes...

Hermine appears to mean business and is definitely ramping up quickly. Last night I would have scoffed at the suggestion that this storm could be close to a Cat-1 by landfall. That doesn't appear to be so far-fetched as this point.

This one looks like a real flood threat for us in south Texas.