Long range model discussion

[Stratton20]

Yep, too bad its long range, love seeing those bright purple colors spilling into the US, big arctic blast

[Stratton20]

We are starting to get hints in the extended long range or 14-16 days that blocking may begin to setup in alaska, this is evident on the GFS 12z 500 mb height anomaly map, towards the end of the run very cold air starts to build up in canada, just something to watch

[Stratton20]

LMAO I want whatever the 00z GFS is smoking almost 2 feet of snow in west texas at the end of the run

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 wow the 06z GEFS is about the best run ive seen in a while if you like colder weather! Below normal throughout the entire run!

[Iceresistance]

Cpv17 wow the 06z GEFS is about the best run ive seen in a while if you like colder weather! Below normal throughout the entire run!

6z GFS has snow for my area in 2 weeks!

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance the 06z GFS gets very close to a winter storm setup at about days 8-10 and then mutliple rounds of arctic air throughout the remainder of its run, what an amazing run!

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance the 06z GFS gets very close to a winter storm setup at about days 8-10 and then mutliple rounds of arctic air throughout the remainder of its run, what an amazing run!

And it was right! Holy cow!

[Iceresistance]

Ultra-long range 0z CFS has a insane Late December.

[Ptarmigan]

Ultra-long range 0z CFS has a insane Late December.

I looked at Tropical Tidbits for 06Z CFS.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 306&fh=504

It forecasts cold weather around Christmas to New Years.

[Cpv17]

Things are trending much colder as we get towards mid month. I’m kind of afraid that we might get a cooldown before Christmas and then it warms back up for Christmas. Hopefully with the -NAO locked in, it’ll have staying power.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Things are trending much colder as we get towards mid month. I’m kind of afraid that we might get a cooldown before Christmas and then it warms back up for Christmas. Hopefully with the -NAO locked in, it’ll have staying power.

I’m not. This pattern with this blocking and a lackadaisical, meandering MJO and you get these 3-4 week upper air setups.

I believe Cosgrove and Webb have both said they expect this next cold snap to last until week 2 of January.

That would most likely center the coldest anomalies around Christmas to New Years with the polar front express in high gear.

[Cpv17]

I think if we’re gonna enter a colder pattern it’s gonna be sometime after the 20th. I see nothing on the models through the 11th that suggests a cooldown is coming. The Aleutian trough looks pretty stubborn and persistent.

[Stratton20]

Actually I do see some hints at a Sudden Stratospheric warming event taking shape, but id say after the 15th or so, but I still believe this warm pattern isnt going to be staying for long

[Cpv17]

Actually I do see some hints at a Sudden Stratospheric warming event taking shape, but id say after the 15th or so, but I still believe this warm pattern isnt going to be staying for long

Yeah but there’s usually a pretty decent lag after SSW’s occur so I’m thinking more so after the 20th.

[Cpv17]

If we’re gonna change this pattern we’re gonna need the Pacific to chill out. It’s crashing hard into Cali right now and flooding most of the country with warm air. Record breaking rainfall for Cali and a ridiculous amount of snow out west. And it doesn’t look like it’s going to stop anytime soon either.

[Stratton20]

It will begin to die down eventually, id say after the 15th the pattern is going to flip again

[Cpv17]

Long ways out but the GFS is starting to break down the Pacific jet. We’ll see if it’s the start of a trend.

[Ptarmigan]

Actually I do see some hints at a Sudden Stratospheric warming event taking shape, but id say after the 15th or so, but I still believe this warm pattern isnt going to be staying for long

Yeah but there’s usually a pretty decent lag after SSW’s occur so I’m thinking more so after the 20th.

These cold blasts start weeks in advance.

[Cpv17]

Actually I do see some hints at a Sudden Stratospheric warming event taking shape, but id say after the 15th or so, but I still believe this warm pattern isnt going to be staying for long

Yeah but there’s usually a pretty decent lag after SSW’s occur so I’m thinking more so after the 20th.

These cold blasts start weeks in advance.

I’ve heard after an SSW there’s a 2-4 week lag before it translates down into the troposphere.

Well good news on the 6z GEFS. It’s finally starting to show some ridging into western Canada and into Alaska but it’s a long ways out so nothing to get excited about yet. Not even close actually but figured it was worth a mention.

[Cpv17]

Cosgrove said that he expects the cold later in January or February to be more severe than what we just experienced. That’s a huge risk for him to say imo. I would never say anything like that if I was a met so he must be feeling really confident.