February 2022

[walsean1]

Looking like a boring typical miserable cold rain for SE Texas, Yawn, Next!

The setup are not in the cards for us this week at least. We would need the cold in place first, then have a system move through afterwards to give us a better chance of winter precipitation as mentioned in the NWS statement yesterday after the arctic front has moved through more of a Thursday night/Friday chance.

[Kingwood36]

Ya I don't see anything happening Thursday night or Friday morning either

[Stratton20]

Yep this cold airmass means nothing without wintry precip, maybe next year, meh

[Stormlover2020]

It’s colder up north right now than last time, also the snow pack up north is better, we have a better chance than 3 weeks ago.

[Stratton20]

The only way I can see SE Texas getting any wintry precip is if the arctic front went it gets here, the temps plummet faster and we are colder than what the models show before the precip arrives, I probably worded that badly, but it is something I do think about as we have seen these arctic fronts over perform in terms of temperature drops before, just my two cents, easily could be wrong

[Stormlover2020]

Models always struggle with cold air masses up north and it’s so hard to get wintry precip here but there is Chance

[don]

We need to keep an eye on the late week system still.As models are showing disturbances moving overhead from the southwest flow aloft.(500mb chart shows this)With arctic air in place we could be looking at a freezing drizzle setup similar to Feb 2011.Big question is if we will have enough moisture available or will it be too dry.The GFS has been hinting at this for a few days now,but the CMC and UKMET looks to be sniffing it out also now.Hopefully just a dry cold as freezing drizzle can cause a mess on the roadways.

From HGX

Elongated, positively tilted upper trof lingers to our west going
into the weekend. GFS is still bullish trying to bring a
disturbance and some sct precip though Saturday night or
Sunday...other guidance and blends not so much.

https://www.weather.gov/crp/feb2011_icestorm

[Stormlover2020]

Will be fun to watch

[DoctorMu]

Eroding warm nose near Waco Thursday with precip. Still 4 days away. It ain't over, 'til it's over!

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu we could be close, it appears CS is right on the edge of potentially getting some wintry mischief

[Kingwood36]

Cs doesn't count..yall are ALWAYS on the edge..share the wealth and stop being greedy

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 hey man we cant help it here guess we got the wintry precip magnet!maybe CS is responsible for the Highway 105 curse stealing all that wintry weather lool

[don]

12Z run of the Euro is gonna make people in north Texas freak out (at least those that want the storm)LOL. The system doesn't dig enough and keeps most of the frozen precip in the panhandle and Oklahoma.

[Stratton20]

Man this is just sad, what an uneventful winter( so far), next, this storm system means little

[Stormlover2020]

Still plenty of time

[Stratton20]

12z Euro, im a little perplexed? Is it picking up on a disturbance by around next monday or so?

[don]

Man this is just sad, what an uneventful winter, next, this storm system means nothing here boo

Keep in mind regardless of precipitation this is still a strong arctic front.We don't see fronts this strong that often here (Hard freeze(s) are likely). Still need to watch the weekend though, i don't like that cutoff low sitting there to our west with arctic air in place...Could be a sneaky setup for ice.12Z Euro now showing light wintry precip with the cutoff low over the weekend as it ejects on Saturday looks like the UKMET.

[Stratton20]

Don Interesting, I guess I didnt see that cut off low on the model, doesnt seem like a whole lot of moisture though

[don]

A better look at qpf from the system.Would probably be sleet/snow FWIW.This is the same cutoff low that all models are showing being left behind from the main upper level trough.

[sambucol]

We might get a surprise with this system.