Wx Infinity Forums

The jury is still out for me. I disregarded the EURO once with Alex. I was wrong (even though I have justification as to why the EURO didn't preform well with Alex, it still got the landfall right). The EURO also nailed TD 2. Now with a weak reflection showing up in the EURO along the upper Texas coast, I'm not ready yet to call it far fetched.

On a side note, for a season that is supposed to be "prime", all these invests are having a hard time getting going. If the water is so warm, then what's the problem? It just illustrates that cyclogenesis is hinged far more on upper level conditions than water temperature.

Latest...watching near 21/71...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 21 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-051

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTH OF CUBA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 02BBA INVEST
C. 22/1430Z
D. 23.0N 76.0W
E. 22/1700Z TO 21/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 23/0000Z
B. NOAA9 03BBA SURV
C. 22/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 23/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0403A CYCLONE
C. 23/0300Z
D. 24.5.0N 78.5.0W
E. 23/0500Z TO 23/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 3-HRLY FIXES AT 23/1500Z
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. A POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION FOR 24/0000Z

3. NOTE: THE AF MISSIONS TASKED FOR 21/1800Z, 22/06-1200Z
WERE CANX BY NHC AT 21/1130Z. THE GIV MISSION TASKED FOR
21/1730Z WILL FLY.

I dunno about you guys, but the center on this thing looks exposed. It does not look like a 60% chance of development.

What continues to catch my eye is the lack of development via guidance. Both 12Z GFS runs suggest a weaker disturbance S of LA. If the Euro continues the westward trend, I do suspect a shift W in 'official' track. The Upper Air data from the G-IV mission will likely be in the 00Z output though.

I see at least a mid level cir. near 21.5 degrees N and 71.3 degrees west. Anybody?

Developent is going to be slow, if any, for now. I'd be very careful to assume tomorrow will mimic today. Fat lady sings, and it ain't dead yet....


As far as the whatever and wherever goes. LA to Texas... Watch the models swing west/south. I agree with Tyler's post from last night that any models suggestion of a pull northward because of a weakness in this ridge is on coolaid. Watch over time as the coolaid runs out, and they wise up...

The only way that would change is if this system becomes really strong, and this ridge really breaks down.

Stat tuned...

Candy Cane wrote:I see at least a mid level cir. near 21.5 degrees N and 71.3 degrees west. Anybody?

Noticed a lower level spin with VIS Imagery this morning The axis appears to be moving W to WNW between 5-10 mph. Imagery certainly is showing that spin much better as the day wears on. Now we watch for storms to move around the circulation to the N and NW. Shear may relax further by this evening into tonight as well.

12Z HWRF...

So it looks like the HWRF is shifting more east. Do any of the more experienced members think this is a viable solution?

ronyan wrote:So it looks like the HWRF is shifting more east. Do any of the more experienced members think this is a viable solution?

Until the parallel GFS becomes operational and we get some clarification on how it may effect any of the input for the HWRF/GFDL I'm really leaning against what they show.

With that said... What they have shown could in fact play out so who knows. Though as noted by Avila in the latest TWO the axis is moving W. Short-term it doesn't matter with that ULL being in charge.

wxman says the ridge will weaken then the ridge will most likely weaken and the storm will be a north gulf storm if it develops. i think this because ive been looking at this forum for a long time and wxman is rarely wrong

Have to admit that while the operational GFS has been downplayed because of the confusion of its handling of the ULL it may have been onto something.

Snowman wrote:wxman says the ridge will weaken then the ridge will most likely weaken and the storm will be a north gulf storm if it develops. i think this because ive been looking at this forum for a long time and wxman is rarely wrong

Well I believe that wxman was wrong about TD #2 moving into LA but you're right he's a very good forecaster (at least from what I can tell). He's entitled to a deviation every now and then. I've been reading posts on this board for about 5 years now so I'm not totally clueless. I also like to lurk over at s2k.

We are watching it, guys and gals. No one is posting here today. Not quite sure why. Things are active over at storm2k. We should be able to get a better hold on this system on Thursday as it continues to get it's act together. Let me remind everyone to keep an
open mind where the models are concerned. Some of them still lift this north, and some forecasters are following suit. That solution could verify, although I still think not likely, but it is not set in stone. As with any tropical system, never take any forecast for granted, no matter which camp it comes from. To be 100% right, 100% of the time is impossible.

Be safe..

BB

Been very busy today. HGX has some interesting thoughts this afternoon...

SOME FCST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS DETAILS WILL HINGE ON WHAT THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE BAHAMAS ENDS UP DOING. HURRICANE MODELS GENERALLY
TAKE IT NWWD TOWARD THE ERN GULF COAST BETWEEN NEW ORLEANS AND THE
FL PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN/NOGAPS ALL
KEEP THIS FEATURE MOVING WWD THRU THE GULF AS AN OPEN WAVE UNDER
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. CONSIDERING NOTHING HAS YET DEVELOPED FEEL
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS POINT IS TO TREND THE FCST WITH
THE ABOVE MODELS. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP BEGINNING SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK - AND PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS EVENTUALLY NEEDED
BUT TIMING AS TO WHEN WE GET ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE. ECMWF IS SHOWING A WET SUNDAY WHILE
CANADIAN/GFS SHOWING BETTER COVERAGE BEGINNING MON. LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO TWEAK AS FCST CONFIDENCE INCREASES. 47

The center of circulation of 97L is ,needless to say, very close to Grand Turks in the Bahamas.

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Home made NASA MSFC super-zoomed visible satellite loop.


If there is a low level center, which I'm not quite convinced there is, it is at the SW side of the convection. Interference from Haiti is keeping storms from firing to the South, and Westerly shear is pushing storms off to the East, in my humble opinion.



An open wave bringing some showers to Texas the beginning of the work week, I can handle that.

How likely do you think it is that it will still be an open wave after all of the gulf? Is dry air or shear supposed to be significant through that period?

Ed, I'll repost your catch of the HPC Final Extended Update here as well...

GULF COAST...
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE WESTERN SIDE OF
A PERSISTENTLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE ALOFT COULD BE DENTED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRECEDING THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH THE GFS AND
ITS PARALLEL RECURVE THE FARTHEST EAST/NORTHEAST...WHICH HAS LED
TO NHC TRACK GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE GFDL AND LBAR TO LIE STILL
FARTHER EAST/NORTHEAST...WELL EAST/NORTHEAST OF ALL OF THE CURRENT
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE 16Z COORDINATION
CALL WITH NHC YIELDED POINTS WITHIN THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF THE
OVERALL 00Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE SPREAD WHICH COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WESTERN GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND THE EASTERN TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK
MODELS. A PERSISTENT LACK OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS
SYSTEM CALLS INTO QUESTION HOW STRONG OF A FEATURE WILL ACTUALLY
MATERIALIZE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THIS DISTURBANCE. IF THE
SYSTEM FORMS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WOULD
LIE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
WEAK AND DISORGANIZED IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...THERE
WOULD BE ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE TEXAS COAST VERY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HENCE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES GULF COAST FROM THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS
FROM NHC CONCERNING THIS FEATURE.

I cannot see any evidence of an LLC on satellite loops - and in the actual observations across the islands. What I do see is some evidence that the westerly wind shear is beginning to relax a little as the upper low moves more rapidly westward than the disturbance is advancing. This is resulting in increasing convection east of the wave axis. If I was to point to a place to track for a possible LLC formation tomorrow, I'd point to 21.6N/72.3W, just south of the western tip of the convection. But I see no LLC there yet.

It remains to be seen if the upper low will continue moving out of the picture tonight/tomorrow. I think it will, and that should allow for gradual development on Thursday. Could be a TD in 24 hours if it's not hit by shear again tonight. Once it does gain that LLC in an environment of decreasing shear (assuming that happens), then it's a short jump to TS status east of Florida.

I don't buy the "hurricane models" (HWRF/GFDL) taking it toward the central peninsula. They assume it's already developed, and it hasn't. I prefer a continued WNW movement that would take the center near the Keys Friday afternoon/evening then on a heading of around 280 degrees into the Gulf for 24 hours until high pressure north of the system relaxes Saturday afternoon. Then, assuming it does develop, it could begin turning WNW-NW. This increases the threat farther west toward Louisiana. My track, in fact, now takes it inland SSW of New Orleans Sunday afternoon/evening. However, that's a VERY LOW CONFIDENCE forecast which is dependent on variables which we do not know (like if and when it will develop, and when the ridge will break down). I think that the FL Panhandle may be out of the woods now as far as a possible hurricane (or TS) landfall. I don't think it's coming to Texas as a TC, maybe if it doesn't develop at all we could get some rain out of it.

Oh, and I just calculated a 12-hr movement on the upper low NW of the disturbance. I got a movement of 289 degrees at 15.3 kts. That's a good 5-6 mph faster than the disturbance. Should result in steadily decreasing shear.

Remember, we never expected wind shear to drop off until tomorrow, anyway. So it's not behaving much differently than was originally forecast 3-4 days ago.