JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

[mcheer23]

EURO also has a patch of 10-12 inches of rain to the east of Houston metro...Livingston down through Liberty

[stormlover]

Srain, what do u mean by much sharper trough ?

[srainhoutx]

Srain, what do u mean by much sharper trough ?

Meaning there is a bit of a wind shift along the trough axis creating a bit more lift potentially generated. Some of those higher rainfall totals may be related. An open wave or very little wind action along the trough tends to favor less in the way of rainfall.

[stormlover]

Thanks

[Ounce]

Looks like south and west of SA is getting the splattering of rain, presently. Looking outside, I see tons more blue than clouds. Closest little spark of rain is SW of Brenham moving north. To be capped or not be capped around here. That is the question.

[mckinne63]

I started to notice it just after the cool front swept through after Ike.

Our Bradford Pear tree bloomed early that year, the biggest most beautiful blooms we have ever seen on it. Now it just gets a few blooms. It has not been the same since Ike. I think Ike did have a major impact on our weather here and messed up the trees and other things.

[DoctorMu]

It's interesting that lately we seem to be in a drought and get caught up in rain all at once only to go back to drought a few weeks later. Hoping for 3-4 days of good soaking rains from this.

Been that way for years, seems like it really started with the Rita near-miss in 2005. Since then, the tree canopy has been almost decimated by pine beetles and intermittent droughts. Just when we get enough moisture to pull things out of stress, it starts up again.

That's what I've noticed, and have a record of the rain pattern. Fewer in frequency and more varied.

I put the trees on a program a few years ago to get them through the summers: Superthrive, Medina, gypsum, sulfur, Miracle Gro, occasional fertilization, 10 gal extra water/week past sprinkler system

[Rip76]

Big towers firing right now.

[jasons2k]

The rain missed me by a few miles. That cell in NW Harris County / SW Montgomery County is still going. Pretty impressive storms this evening.

[srainhoutx]

No rain here today, but we are seeing that moisture is slowly creeping upward and that should continue into the weekend. PW's should near 2 inches on Saturday and increase further on Sunday/Monday to 2.3 to 2.5 inches which is impressive for this year so far.

I noticed that the 12Z TC Genesis Probabilities in the Western Gulf increase by 120 hours to 40 to 50% and become higher in the 120 to 240 hour range which I find interesting. Wind shear appears to try to relax over portions of the Western Gulf around hour 96 via the GFS. While no one is expecting any sort of real development from 91L, the 7:00 PM Tropical Weather Outlook holds the 0% chance over the next 48 hours and 20% chance through the 5 day period.

[jasons2k]

The BOC and Western GOM have a long, storied history of storms trying to wrap-up at the last minute. There are certain factors that just cannot be reliably modeled very well this far out, such as any pockets of relative low shear sandwiched in-between areas of higher shear, moisture envelopes (or dry air), possible outflow enhancers (or inhibitors) related to nearby tropical systems or troughs, etc.

There are still a lot of variables on the table to sort out before declaring the fate of 91L, but for now the prudent call is a land-falling sharp wave along the Texas coast.

[mcheer23]

NAM is trying to develop 91L ...but then again it's the NAM.

[stormlover]

Yeah I see that but I do think it might have a 24 hour period where it could try form little depression

[mcheer23]

NAM, GFS and CMC are all more bullish tonight.

[DoctorMu]

The rain missed me by a few miles. That cell in NW Harris County / SW Montgomery County is still going. Pretty impressive storms this evening.

Got to within 5 miles of College Station and then Death by Aggiedome (OK, it was actually the sun setting). Not a drop.

[don]

I think there could be an opportunity for 91L to develop, on Saturday into Sunday, models do show it moving quickly though, the system seems to make "landfall" on the GFS and Canadian models as early as Sunday Afternoon.

[Andrew]

I think there could be an opportunity for 91L to develop, on Saturday into Sunday, models do show it moving quickly though, the system seems to make "landfall" on the GFS and Canadian models as early as Sunday Afternoon.

An ULL over the BOC could provide some ventilation/ reduce shear over the western gulf but it is forecasted for a rather short period. That is why you see that quick vort max show up at 850mb. Still, I have my doubts anything meaningful could spin up.

[srainhoutx]

Thursday morning briefing from Jeff:

Locally heavy rainfall possible Sunday-Tuesday

Tropical feature over the western Caribbean Sea will move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and the western Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Development of this system appears to be low due to strong wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico, but this wind shear will be weakening this weekend so this system will need to be monitored for any attempts at development over the weekend. The NHC currently places the 5 days development chances at 10%.

Large influx of moisture will begin on Saturday as the wave axis approaches the TX coast and then slowly moves inland Sunday and Monday. Global models have come into slightly better agreement that the main axis of moisture looks to be aimed at the upper TX coast Sunday and Monday. The forecast for Saturday is more uncertain as the moisture may begin to arrive late delaying the best rain chances until the afternoon into the evening hours. Sunday and Monday looks to have widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Rainfall Amounts:
Not much change to the widespread 2-5 inches with isolated higher amounts over a 2-3 day period. Any sort of banding features or training of storms would result in quick rainfall accumulations and much higher totals on a local level. Air mass will become extremely moist with PWS of 2.1-2.6 inches by Sunday and a nearly saturated profile indicating storms will maximize their rainfall efficiency. Short durations storm totals of 2-3 inches will be possible in an hour or less under any organized storms or any areas of S to N training.

While confidence continues to increase on the widespread rainfall amounts, where any particular location may see the higher isolated totals remains unclear.

Hydro:
Grounds are dry over the region and will be able to absorb the first few inches of rainfall without much run-off. Flash flood guidance remains in the 4-6 inch range for 6 hours over the area. Main concern at this point would be any location that receives intense short duration rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches in an hour or less. Even with dry grounds this is a large amount of rainfall in a short period of time and would likely result in street flooding and ponding. Grounds will gradually saturate as the event moves into Monday and Tuesday and more significant amounts of run-off may be generated at that time.

Marine:
As the tropical wave axis moves into the western Gulf of Mexico conditions across the coastal waters will be deteriorating this weekend. Long fetch ESE/SE winds of 20-25kts will begin to build seas starting on Saturday and peaking Sunday/Monday in the 7-10 foot range. Long period swells will begin to arrive along the TX coast late Saturday into Sunday and latest ET surge guidance is indicating water level and wave run-up closer to advisory levels along the Gulf beaches on Sunday. ET surge is showing nearly 1 foot of storm surge on top of the normal tide cycle by early Sunday with total water level of just over 3 feet at Galveston Pleasure Pier.

Forecasted Rainfall Totals (5-days today-Tuesday…most of this will fall Sun-Tues):

[wxman57]

Development chances still appear slim. Chances of widespread rainfall totals 2-5 inches look high. Could be some training of echoes in some locations that may result in rainfall totals of 10 inches, or more. Impossible to tell where those locations will be. Generally a beneficial rain event, with some street flooding at times.

[tireman4]

This weekend rainfall forecast....