More wish casting on Christmas eve, but train is correct in that the overall prospect is COLD. How this will be manifested in any wintry mischief will be uncertain for awhile.
For the second day in a row, the HGX forecasters are mentioning the infamous 'McFarland' like upper air pattern mid next week. Going to be a very close call to see if IAH reaches 32F early tomorrow morning as well.
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srainhoutx wrote:For the second day in a row, the HGX forecasters are mentioning the infamous 'McFarland' like upper air pattern mid next week. Going to be a very close call to see if IAH reaches 32F early tomorrow morning as well.
I'll agree that the models can give you a general idea, albeit somewhat unreliable past two or three days out. I chuckle at models predicting winter weather in this area ten to fifteen days out. We've all seen those bust numerous times with nothing what the models showed.
The weather is predictably unpredictable and I can think of a few events that took us by complete surprise, no models suggesting even a glimpse of what we received.
There's just not an exact science to reliably predict with certainty what the weather will do.
Prime example is today when the forecast called for a low cloud deck with little to no precipitation tonight and it's sprinkling outside tonight with temps in the mid 40's. I'd be surprised if anyone gets anywhere near the freeze mark tonight, in fact I don't see the temps getting much below 39 degrees, at least south of I-10.
45 here just south of Pearland. On and off mist. Probably wont get much colder beyond a couple degrees tonight. Nasty to be out in regardless because cold + wet + wind = suck
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
400 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
At 300 AM, surface high pressure was located over central Oklahoma. A tight pressure gradient continued over the western Gulf and impinged on the coastal counties. An upper level disturbance brought some very light rain to the area last night but more importantly, the system kept clouds in place limiting the temperature drop. Where skies have cleared (Crockett), temperatures are already at 30 degrees. But further south, clouds have hung in and temperatures are still in the mid/upper 30s. Will let the Freeze Warning ride as satellite imagery is showing a few breaks and the cloud shield is slowly eroding from the north. Clouds will gradually thin today and the area should receive some sunshine later today as high pressure moves toward Missouri. Despite some sun, cold air advection will continue albeit weaker than yesterday but daytime highs today will struggle to reach 50 degrees. The surface high shifts far enough east tonight and Saturday for onshore winds to redevelop. Not sure the magnitude of the onshore wind will be sufficient to mitigate another night of near freezing temperatures. The best potential for freezing temps will be in areas that have already experienced freezing temperatures and freeze warnings have already been issued for those areas so no additional freeze warning is expected for tonight.
Warm air advection will begin on Saturday as a weak warm front tries to develop. Fcst soundings show saturation deepening from the sfc to around 850 mb. Would not be surprised if a few showers began to develop as early as Saturday aftn but more likely Saturday night and Sunday as the warm front moves north. The GFS and ECMWF both show a weak s/wv late Sunday and Sunday night and this feature should generate some additional showers across most of the region. A weak cold front will approach the region early Monday and there will enough convergence along this feature for another slight chance of showers especially over the eastern half of the region where deeper moisture is available.
850 mb temps really warm on Mon/Tues and max temps could approach the upper 70s on both afternoons. Things become a bit more muddled by the middle of next week as another strong cold front will cross the region. Still some timing differences between the now slower GFS and the faster ECMWF. Yesterday, the EC was slower and the GFS faster. Still both models are showing the front but differ in the timing and available moisture. Used a blend of model solutions given the uncertainty of the pattern evolution. 43
&&
.MARINE...
Strong cold air advection and a tight pressure gradient continue to lead to gale force winds mainly over the offshore waters early this morning. Guidance and models have the winds diminishing below gale force by mid morning. However, advisory conditions will likely persist over the offshore waters through mid afternoon. Closer to the coast within 20 nm, advisory conditions will probably let up by around midday.
Winds will swing around to out of the east later this afternoon and persist through tonight. On Saturday moderate onshore winds will develop with caution conditions likely at least over the offshore waters both Saturday and Sunday. A weak front is expected on Monday with a stronger front moving off the coast during the mid week period -- model differences suggest either Wednesday or early
Thursday morning.
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for the following zones: Austin... Brazos...Burleson... Colorado... Grimes... Harris... Houston... Liberty... Madison... Montgomery... Polk... San Jacinto... Trinity... Walker... Waller... Washington.
GM... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for the following zones: Galveston Bay... Matagorda Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM... Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.
Gale Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM... Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.
Cloud deck saved us from reaching the freezing mark at IAH this morning. NE of Metro Houston, skies cleared so the Piney Woods of East Texas did freeze. Possibly we get a chance tonight as the clouds scour out before a return flow off the Gulf becomes established on Saturday.
The next shot of Arctic air arrives Wednesday with a chance of temperatures reaching the low to mid 30's followed by a third shot of Arctic air next weekend.
The longer range ensemble guidance continues to advertise a possible McFarland like upper air pattern with the possibility of even colder Arctic air arriving just before Christmas. The Teleconnection indices do suggest a -AO/+PNA/-WPO/-EPO Hemispheric Pattern meaning the potential exists for a strong shot of Arctic air with a cross Polar flow established sending RE enforcing shots of very cold Arctic air funneling from Eurasia/Siberia across the North Pole into NW Canada and the establishment of a Tropospheric Polar Vortex anchored over Southern Canada into the Northern Plains. If the very cold upper trough suggested by the ensemble guidance digs into the Great Basin as they currently suggest, will need to monitor for the potential of some potential wintry mischief across a large portion of the Lone Star State later next weekend into the week before Christmas. It is certainly too soon to know with any certainty exactly what our sensible weather will be beyond 2-3 days, but even the most seasoned Meteorologists are suggesting the possibility of this pattern exists, so we will continue to monitor.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
513 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR ceilings expected through mid afternoon with the deck then scattering out. Winds will be the main issue today. Breezy north winds will become northeasterly and diminish 15Z to 17Z for most inland sites. KLBX will be a bit slower to respond and KGLS should see about 14 knots through the afternoon period. With clouds thinning out, freezing temperatures once again expected tonight over the northern sites - KCLL, KUTS, KCXO - and possibly at KIAH. Incoming VFR cloud cover may help alleviate temperature concern at KIAH.
I think Conroe bottomed out at 35. No freeze in Montgomery County last night. Tonight's latest forecast has me at 29. Technically, since we have not had our first freeze yet, a fresh new freeze warning should be issued for tonight but they won't....
I will be home after the 16th for Winter Break, so a nice winter-type scenario would be fine with me. Although I don't believe my significant other would enjoy driving all the way to the Medical Center if we were to get any frozen precip.
Hopefully most employers and emergency personnel will get the word out long before any possible event occurs and folks stay off the roads if warranted.
The 12Z ECMWF suggests a somewhat worrisome pattern for those hoping for warm weather. That McFarland signature sure seem to keep showing up in the medium to long range.
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