January 2016: Mardi Gras WX Outlook

[snowman65]

that would be very interesting for my trip to N. Alabama....hhmmm

Band - NE Texas through NC. That's long, long way out...

So don't get your hopes up, snowman65.

I never get my hopes up that far in advance.

[nuby3]

I have no control over my hopes. they get up unwarranted all the time

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Radar already showing a good bit of light rainfall cross the region this morning as low level dry air mass is pushed out by returning Gulf moisture.

Coastal warm front has developed ENE of coastal trough/surface low off the middle TX coast and radar shows a few stronger thunderstorms have developed along this feature this morning. TX TECH WRF seems to have a decent handle on the ongoing situation and brings decent amounts of showers and some thunderstorms across the region today and tonight as the tail end of the passing southern plains short wave provides lift over the region. Could see some heavy rainfall from mid afternoon through the evening hours with amounts of 1-2 inches possible.

Rains will end from the west Thursday morning, but the break will be short lived as the next in a series of short wave currently moving into the southern CA coast moves eastward into TX. Rapid moisture return on Friday will yield another chance of rainfall by Friday evening into the overnight period. Moisture does not look as plentiful as with the current system, but enough to squeeze out some rainfall. Much colder air mass surges southward behind this system on Saturday with temperatures falling from highs in the 70’s on Thursday and Friday to the 40’s and 50’s by Sunday. Could see lows near freezing Monday morning over portions of the area, but increasing clouds late Sunday into early Monday ahead of another disturbance may prevent freezing temperatures as the clouds will help to act as a blanket over the region. With all that said, will need to keep an eye on the Monday morning period as this disturbance might have enough moisture over our northern counties to produce some very light precipitation Monday morning when temperatures are coldest. Right now see no reason to expect anything other than some light sprinkles.

Rain chances increase Monday and Tuesday as a weak coastal trough develop advecting moisture northward over the cold dome at the surface.

[srainhoutx]

A couple of things to monitor across the Hemisphere this morning. A developing tropical cyclone SW of Hawaii looks well on its way to organizing thanks to the very warm El Nino waters that are situated across the Central Pacific and that MJO Pulse that we have been posting about.

01062016 13Z 90C avn-l.jpg

01062016 MJO twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

Also the Climate Prediction Center Day 11+ Analogs based off the 00Z GFS suggest a general stormy and chilly pattern may be possible just beyond the mid January timeframe. The Arctic Oscillation continues its dive into strongly negative territory suggesting a very strong to possibly severe Blocking Regime across the Northern Hemisphere is increasing especially if we see the -AO drop to the -4 to -5 Range. While the Pacific North American hovers near a positive 1 which may indicate any Western Ridging will not be as strong therefore allowing more cold air to seep further S into the Great Basin and the Plains. We will see.

01062016 CPC Day 11+ GFS Analogs 500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

01062016 AO ao_sprd2.gif

01062016 PNA pna_sprd2.gif

[BigThicket]

Looks like Ms. Valley to me...which can deliver us some cold air...we will see

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 11+ Analogs seem to fit well with past stronger El Nino Winter years. That would place us in the mid to late January timeframe.

[wxman57]

I'm seeing nothing to suggest more than a light freeze or two next week, along with a bit of cold rain next Thu/Fri. Though there will be a series of west Gulf lows forming over the coming weeks, we'll need a bit colder air for anything other than rain. It's a pattern that could eventually bring snow to Houston, though.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Yep, the gulf (low) cruisers are the ones that bring us snow a la 2009.

[Katdaddy]

Increasing showers and a few thunderstorms this evening across SE TX and especially along the Middle TX Coast with a few severe cells well offshore.

[Katdaddy]

SPC Mesoscale Discussion 3 issue for the Middle TX Coast:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0003
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0535 PM CST WED JAN 06 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PART OF THE MIDDLE TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 062335Z - 070100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR TSTM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE TX COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES EVOLVING WITHIN A N/S BAND OF
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION E/NE OF A SFC MESO-LOW ANALYZED NEAR ALICE
TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY PRIMARILY ELEVATED...AS VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY EARLIER SUGGESTED AGITATED/GLACIATING CUMULUS EVOLVING ATOP
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTED BY
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A HIGH-LEVEL
JET STREAK OVERLYING THE AREA IMPLIED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
ASSOCIATED VERTICAL CIRCULATION RELATED TO THE EXIT REGION OF THIS
JET STREAK SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOSTER LOW-LEVEL POLEWARD FLUXES OF
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE. THE CRP VWP INDICATES 40-50 KT OF MID-LEVEL
WSWLYS ABOVE A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE THAT COULD CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...AS EVIDENT WITH A CELL OVER NRN
SAN PATRICIO COUNTY. OTHER CELLS EVOLVING ALONG THE WARM ADVECTION
PLUME FARTHER S MAY MATURE/INTENSIFY. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH OVERALL WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
TEND TO LIMIT THE RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS. ALSO...LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVERALL...PRECLUDING ANY MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED SVR RISK.

[Kevin Queen]

I'm seeing nothing to suggest more than a light freeze or two next week, along with a bit of cold rain next Thu/Fri. Though there will be a series of west Gulf lows forming over the coming weeks, we'll need a bit colder air for anything other than rain. It's a pattern that could eventually bring snow to Houston, though.

1. Fine with me. Like snow.

2. One thing that would spoil the fun, though: if the snow turned out to be wet and heavy. That kinda snow brings down power lines and stops traffic cold (Heh-Heh) dead. Any of you guys see that happenin' 'round here? Not that I'm worried or anything like that, just curious.

[wxman57]

I'm seeing nothing to suggest more than a light freeze or two next week, along with a bit of cold rain next Thu/Fri. Though there will be a series of west Gulf lows forming over the coming weeks, we'll need a bit colder air for anything other than rain. It's a pattern that could eventually bring snow to Houston, though.

1. Fine with me. Like snow.

2. One thing that would spoil the fun, though: if the snow turned out to be wet and heavy. That kinda snow brings down power lines and stops traffic cold (Heh-Heh) dead. Any of you guys see that happenin' 'round here? Not that I'm worried or anything like that, just curious.

It would take a tremendous amount of snow to have a chance at taking down power lines. Such an event would be extremely unlikely here. Of more concern in that respect would be freezing rain.

[Kevin Queen]

It would take a tremendous amount of snow to have a chance at taking down power lines. Such an event would be extremely unlikely here. Of more concern in that respect would be freezing rain.

Yeah, wouldn't want that. Good news is that I haven't seen any forecast models that predict anything like that for H-Town. Course, I could be reading them things wrong.....

[Rip76]

Getting a good amount of rain in the Pearland area.

*sidenote* - is it him, or a new one?

[Kevin Queen]

Getting a good amount of rain in the Pearland area.

*sidenote* - is it him, or a new one?

Well, I didn't get my lightning fix, but I sure did got a lot of rain.

"sidenote"---what do you mean him? what are you talking about?

[Katdaddy]

Thunderstorms overnight and early this morning associated with the strong shortwave have moved E of the Houston-Galveston areas. 1-2" rains were common with 1.47" at the house. A Spring-like afternoon with clearing skies and mid 70s ahead of the next strong short wave Friday night. The SPC has SE TX in a marginal risk area for severe thunderstorms with large hail being the primary threat.

[srainhoutx]

Morning brief from Jeff:

Highly active and fast upper level flow will bring yet another storm system across the region Friday night.

Active Wednesday evening into the overnight period has ended with several locations across the region picking up 1-2 inches of rainfall and a good bit of lightning and thunder. The short wave responsible for all the overnight activity has moved east of the region this morning along with all of the rain and thunderstorms. No significant air mass change will occur behind this departing wave with dewpoints remaining in the 50’s and under clearing skies temperatures warming into the 70’s this afternoon.

Fog will be possible through the mid morning and again tonight with wet grounds, light winds and clear skies. Next short wave moving ashore of southern CA this morning will rapidly progress eastward and into TX Friday. Moisture returns across the TX coastal plain during the day on Friday and stronger lift arrives Friday evening. Expect another round of showers and thunderstorms. Elevated instability could reach into the 500-1000 J/kg range or enough for a few strong or even marginally severe storms…main threat would be hail.

A strong Canadian cold front will sweep across the region early Saturday with temperatures returning to much colder values on Sunday with highs in the 40’s and 50’s and lows in the 30’s.

Another short wave will approach on Monday with the cold air in place at the surface. Will at least go with overcast conditions on Monday and will likely need to add rain chances for much of the region. Right now it appears everything will remain liquid and rain chances look to continue along and south of I-10 into Tuesday and maybe Wednesday as the sub-tropical jet stream positions over the NW Gulf.

SPC Day 2 (Friday) Severe Weather Outlook:

01072016 Jeff 1 unnamed.gif

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[srainhoutx]

Satellite Imagery shows the parade of Pacific storms marching toward California continues. In the Lower left of the Water Vapor loop you can see newly formed Tropical Depression 1C SSW of Hawaii near the Equator. The overnight GFS based Day 11+ Analogs continue to suggest an unsettle pattern across the Southern tier of States with the continued chance for Coastal low development and occasional shots of chilly air entering into the longer range outlook.

[snowman65]

Sure wish I knew how to read these...lol. I will be in N. Alabama at this time. Not sure what this is telling me

[srainhoutx]

Sure wish I knew how to read these...lol. I will be in N. Alabama at this time. Not sure what this is telling me

The chart is at the 500mb height or about 18,200 feet up. The blue shades indicate a general trough or colder air potential while the reds indicate high pressure and possible warmer air.