December 2015 -Year Ends As One Of Wettest On Record

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Next week thru NYD looks cool and slightly below average overall. Thank God! The weather this week is depressing for Christmas.

[srainhoutx]

The morning forecast challenge will focus on Christmas Day into early next week as a powerful Winter Storm system currently moving across the Gulf of Alaska drops SE into the developing Western Trough and cuts off from the main Polar jet stream across Southern Arizona/Northern Mexico and deepens into a very cold core upper low as very chilly spills South from the Canadian Prairies into the Great Basin/Upper Rio Grande Valley of New Mexico and eventually spills East over the Continental Divide into the Plains during the upcoming weekend. Leeside cyclogenesis, or a strong surface low pressure system is expected to develop across West Texas and slowly move ENE and then NE into the Ozarks as a very strong blocking SE Ridge of High Pressure prevents any storm system of being progressive, or quickly moving East across the Lower 48. That blocking SE Ridge will keep the Eastern 1/3rd of the United States very warm, but trouble lurks across our Region into the Southern/Central Plains as well as the Southern/Central Rockies as folks head home from the busy Christmas Holiday travel period. There is still some uncertainty to the eventual track of the cut off cold core low, but past experience in years that have had a strong El Nino tend to suggest that a more slow meandering Southern track across Mexico to Texas South of the Big Bend and on East into the Permian Basin would be the most likely solution. That eventual storm track will likely not be realized until Christmas Day as the shortwave and the dynamics associated with the cold air currently over Greenland spill SW into the Canadian Prairies and all features enter the RAOB network for ingestion into the computer schemes.

As of this morning will go with a powerful Winter Storm and possible Blizzard condition across New Mexico, Colorado, portions of West Texas into the Panhandle where wind blown snow likely will approach or exceed 2 feet. Depending on the eventual storm track, locations across portions of Oklahoma into portions of Kansas on North may well experience very heavy wind blown snow with the potential of Blizzard conditions across portion of the Southern and Central Plains.

In the warm sector ahead of this developing Storm, a stalled frontal boundary will lift slowly North as a strong low level jet off the Gulf develops in response to rapid pressure falls across Northern Mexico, New Mexico and West Texas ahead of the cold core upper low and developing deep surface low. While there may be a chance for strong to severe storms across Central, N Central, SE and East Texas this coming weekend, too much uncertainty in the low track and just how quickly the storm race SE along a very strong cold front associated with the surface low lends to a VERY uncertain forecast challenge.

Looking ahead into next week in the wake of this power storm, a generally deep Western trough appears to be carved out across the Western 2/3rd of the United States with a continuation of an active storm track as well as a very active sub tropical jet stream over Texas. Stay Tuned as the next 10 days unfold in what could be one of the most challenging forecast period we have seen in a long time.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Overall wet weather pattern will continue through next weekend.

Stream of sub-tropical moisture continues overhead this morning with upper level short waves noted over central MX and another over the SW US. The central Mexican short wave will move across SE TX later this morning into this afternoon and help draw the area of showers over the Gulf of Mexico northward into SE TX during this period. There is some uncertainty on how far inland this activity may move, but think areas south of I-10 have the best chances of seeing any light rain and showers.

Other item to contend with is the fog and coastal sea fog. Will see only very slow recovery today with fog as conditions are favorable to help maintain the fog bank for most of the morning…especially along the coast. Surface dewpoints continue to run near/just over coastal water temperatures and winds have become fairly light resulting in a dense sea fog bank. This sea fog bank will likely persist through much of the week and move inland at times.

Stronger short wave over the SW US will move across N TX tonight and this wave will result in a severe weather outbreak across the mid south on Wednesday including the potential for a few long tracked tornadoes. Winds become increasingly SW in the mid level later today and this should advect warming mid level temperatures across SE TX later this afternoon. Short wave will scoot just north of SE TX and while lift will be there, looks like capping may hold over much of the area. Will favor the northern and northeastern areas for any thunderstorm development and in this area maybe an isolated severe storm, but best chances will be northeast of our region.

Should see gradual “drying” on Wednesday with a weak frontal boundary attempting to move off the coast. Boundary will likely stall out at some point and expect the coastal areas to remain on the warm/muggy/foggy side of the boundary. Boundary begins to move northward Christmas Eve morning and expect a return of fog and rain chances during the day on Thursday from the coast inland.

Christmas is looking wet and warm with a good chance that sea fog continues along the coast. Upper level jet will be overhead and expect ripples of energy in this feature to help focus periods of showers and thunderstorms from Thursday night-Saturday. Temperatures will remain extremely warm for late December running a solid 10-20 degrees above normal.

A powerful storm system will approach TX next weekend with a clash of warm and muggy air over east TX and modified Canadian air spilling southward down the plains. Track and intensity of this storm system will ultimately determine what transpires over SE TX in the Sunday-Tuesday period. Current indications are that this period could be fairly active with both some severe weather and heavy rainfall.

In summation: a mostly cloudy, foggy, muggy, warm and at times wet week.

[wxman57]

I would not trust the GFS beyond 3-4 days, go with the Euro. Euro is forecasting upper 70s from Christmas Day to Sunday. Cold front moves through Sunday evening and knocks temps back down into the 40s-50s for a few days. Back to near 70 degrees for New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. Not even a hint of a snow threat, or even a freeze.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

GFS shows a freeze for my location around New Years, but it is the GFS.

Come on Phase 7/8 of the MJO. I'm ready for a 1997esque Winter Storm in these parts. Or at least a December 2008/2009.

[srainhoutx]

Come on Phase 7/8 of the MJO.

Give it time...but that will be in a January Topic...

[Cromagnum]

Definitely did not have a fall, and lookjng to not have any winter either. Just one big perpetual spring/summer.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Winter is coming.... Shades of 72-73, 57-58, 62-63

[ticka1]

Winter is coming.... Shades of 72-73, 57-58, 62-63

I like this post

[unome]

still no GOES-13 Sounder IR data http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/index.html

does anyone know how/if this may affect forecasting ability ? it appears to be only the Goes-13 Sounder that's affected

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Operations/GOES/13/index.html
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Operations/GOE ... under.html

SPECIAL MESSAGE:

GOES-13 Sounder IR data is not available. All products from GOES-13 (GOES-East) Sounder IR data have been halted and distribution has been stopped. Engineers are investigating the problem.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

18z GFS doesn't have Northern Harris county (and north) getting out of the 40s until Friday of next week.

That low is going to do a number to the upper air pattern around here if the latest run holds.

[snowman65]

thunder and lightning here...is it December or July????

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Each model run gets colder for next week! We will see a couple of freezes at my house before 2015 is gone. Let's go and have a frigid start to 2016!

[DoctorMu]

Each model run gets colder for next week! We will see a couple of freezes at my house before 2015 is gone. Let's go and have a frigid start to 2016!

I'm seeing 40s and below from late on the 28th through Jan 6 in CLL for this GFS run.

[djjordan]

For our friends in the extreme Northern part of the CWA area here in the Houston/Galveston responsibility area.

Tornado Watch issued for the overnight hours until 7AM CDT.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 556
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EAST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1205 AM UNTIL 700 AM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HAIL AND...WITH TIME...POSSIBLY
A COUPLE TORNADOES...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP / INCREASE OVER EAST TEXAS
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA AS WARM ADVECTION /
MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST
TEXAS UPPER TROUGH.

TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON ANGELINA BOWIE
CAMP CASS CHEROKEE
FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON
HENDERSON HOPKINS HOUSTON
MARION MORRIS NACOGDOCHES
PANOLA RAINS RED RIVER
RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
SHELBY SMITH TITUS
TRINITY UPSHUR VAN ZANDT
WOOD

[DoctorMu]

NW of the area, but some major mischief on the GFS the 28th and 29th:

[Katdaddy]

Severe weather threat pushing E of TX this morning. A significant and widespread severe weather event to unfold across the Central Gulf Coast and lower MS Valley N to the Upper Great Lakes region and Ohio River Valley. A moderate risk area has been posted for E AR, N MS, W TN, W KY, SE MO, and S IL. If you have friends and family in those areas, be sure they are weather aware today. Surrounding the moderate risk is a large enhanced area from N LA to middle TN and S Indiana and IL.

Back home across SE TX expect a very warm day with low 80s with clearing skies. NTX to also have sunny skies today and tomorrow with upper 60s and low 70s. Moisture and clouds begin to return tomorrow along the TX Coast with the continue strong SW flow aloft ahead of a major storm system for the weekend.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Low position is moving way south per latest model run!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

This is the depressing part of living in SE Texas. My family and friends from Longview to Dallas have a good shot at Winter with this track. We don't see these types of low tracks very often.

I need a good coastal low this Winter to spin up as we get an Arctic Front.

[srainhoutx]

Concern continues to grow regarding the Christmas Weekend Storm with virtually all potential weather warnings very possible across the Lone Star State and the surround Region. Both severe thunderstorm potential with damaging winds and a potential for a quick spin up of a tornado or two along and ahead of a potentially powerful squall line looks to advance from Central Texas on S and E rather quickly on Sunday and depending on the eventual movement of the powerful cold core low out of Northern Old Mexico into the Big Bend Sunday night into Monday.

In the cold sector, a Major Winter Storm is looking very likely with the potential for crippling travel impacts across New Mexico, Colorado, West Texas, The Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into Kansas. Blizzard potential appears to be growing that may also include the introduction of an Ice Storm ahead of the Storm as a very cold 1050mb+ Arctic High builds into Colorado and the Upper Rio Grande Valley.

The various dynamical and ensemble computer schemes suggest a lot of snow falling across the Central/Southern Rockies into the Central and Southern Plains providing insolation of possibly another storm system arriving near or just beyond the New Years Day timeframe.

Teleconnection Indices continue to suggest a +PNA/-AO/negative to neutral EPO regime becomes established as well as the MJO and a very robust Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave advancing East across the Eastern Pacific as we head toward the end of December. A robust Kona Low near Hawaii is evident via the Water Vapor imagery suggesting Central and Eastern Pacific convection will continue to spread East into Mexico and Texas through the end of the month. The Western trough continues to dig very far south into the Baja Region of Mexico and the shortwave that will eventually close off and become cut off from the Northern Jet stream marches SE toward the Pacific NW this morning. Stay tuned and be weather aware during the hectic Christmas and New Years Eve/Day Holiday period.



Winter Storm 00Z Euro Ensemble:

12232015 00Z Eruo mean 120 ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_6.png

Storm Prediction Center Day 4 Outlook:

12232015 SCP Day 4 day4prob.gif

Storm Prediction Center Day 5 Outlook:

12232015 SCP Day 5 day5prob.gif

Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave: (Shades of purple and red indicate strong tropical convection and associated deep tropical moisture)

12232015 Kelvin Wave 28.gif