Good morning all. My $.02 for today:
1) When I woke-up at 4am and it was raining, I thought 'I'm so glad it's raining, but it figures - I seem to get half my rain when it's not supposed to'
2) NWS now says 28 for me tomorrow AM. 28!! Two weeks before Thanksgiving!! NO!! That's just insane. Gonna be a busy night with prep work. I'd rather be watching Thursday Night football. Grrrrr.
November 2014: Nice Seanonal Thanksgiving Ahead
I've been watching the 10 day for next weekend, 11/22 & 11/23. I have kids in multiple outdoor functions. Yesterday, it looked warm & dry, now this morning it's showing chance of rain for Dallas/Austin/San Antonio corridor. What's the story on that?
-
wxman57
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2621
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:34 am
- Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)
- Contact:
It's too early to be confident in the forecast for the 22/23. What is your area of concern? Houston? Dallas? San Antonio?texoz wrote:I've been watching the 10 day for next weekend, 11/22 & 11/23. I have kids in multiple outdoor functions. Yesterday, it looked warm & dry, now this morning it's showing chance of rain for Dallas/Austin/San Antonio corridor. What's the story on that?
Currently, it looks like light onshore flow will lead to clouds and light rain across Texas by the 22-23rd.
-
Heat Miser
- Posts: 229
- Joined: Wed Nov 27, 2013 12:48 pm
- Location: FM 528 @ I45 border of League City, Webster, Friendswood
- Contact:
Already long john weather, what. 
You were right srain; this definitely did not give us a glancing blow.
You were right srain; this definitely did not give us a glancing blow.
Light rain might be okay. I've got kids' sporting events in both Dallas and San Antonio. thanks!wxman57 wrote:It's too early to be confident in the forecast for the 22/23. What is your area of concern? Houston? Dallas? San Antonio?texoz wrote:I've been watching the 10 day for next weekend, 11/22 & 11/23. I have kids in multiple outdoor functions. Yesterday, it looked warm & dry, now this morning it's showing chance of rain for Dallas/Austin/San Antonio corridor. What's the story on that?
Currently, it looks like light onshore flow will lead to clouds and light rain across Texas by the 22-23rd.
-
BlueJay
- Posts: 938
- Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:47 am
- Location: Alden Bridge-The Woodlands, Texas
- Contact:
We received no rain this morning. Our morning low was 35F and currently reporting 41F. The long johns have certainly been in use at my house.
2014 has been unreasonably cold. We did not reach 90F in May and very few, if any, 100F degree temps during the summer. This year must be vying for a position in the coldest year contest.
2014 has been unreasonably cold. We did not reach 90F in May and very few, if any, 100F degree temps during the summer. This year must be vying for a position in the coldest year contest.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19623
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
I see no significant changes to the earlier thinking regarding the weekend into early next week via the 12Z suite of Global guidance. This unusual early Winter like pattern continues to offer well below normal temperatures for Mid November across a large portion of the Lower 48. Subtle nuances with the progressive upper air disturbances will be the 'devil in the details' regarding our sensible weather.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1059 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014
VALID 12Z SUN NOV 16 2014 - 12Z THU NOV 20 2014
...COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...
...OVERVIEW...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN OVER CANADA AND ALASKA WILL
SUSTAIN AND MAINTAIN THE NORTH AMERICAN ARCTIC AIRMASS THROUGH
THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE PATTERN SPREADS
THE MODIFIED-ARCTIC AIRMASS DEEP INTO SOUTHERN
STATES...FLORIDA...THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
THE DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ALONG THE WEST
COAST PRODUCES AN ACTIVE PACIFIC JET AND A GRADUAL EQUATORWARD
MIGRATION OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF THE NATION FOR DAYS 6-7.
...UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...
IT CANNOT BE OVERSTATED HOW IMPORTANT THE SUSTAINED PRESENCE OF
ARCTIC AIR AND THE REPLENISHMENT OF THE AIRMASS DURING THIS MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD WILL BE---TO SETTING UP A WINTRY P-TYPE PATTERN ALONG
ITS OUTER FRINGES---IN REGIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND GREAT
BASIN/LEE OF THE CASCADES.
IN THE WEST...THE UNCERTAINTY AND FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
ABILITY OF ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW---AT LOW LEVELS AND AT JET
LEVEL---TO SCOUR OUT THE DRY/COLD CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
DRAPE...EXPANDING OVER A GREATER SURFACE AREA OF THE WESTERN
STATES.
IN THE SOUTH...THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE ABILITY OF THE JET-LEVEL
WINDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN
TROUGH...TO PROMOTE LIFT AND ELEVATE THE PROSPECTS FOR A WINTER
P-TYPE REGIME FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GULF COAST.
...MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE CANADIAN...ECMWF...GFS AND UKMET 13/00Z CYCLE AND THE
ECENS...GEFS...NAEFS REASONABLY DEPICT THE MASS FIELDS THROUGH DAY
5. THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC RUNS VERSUS THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS---FOCUS ON TIMING OF THE PRIMARY AND SECONDARY
MID-LEVEL WAVE ENERGY TRANSPORT---ALONG AN ACTIVE UPPER-LEVEL JET
AXIS. FOR THE DAY 5-7 TIME FRAME...A 50/30/20 BLEND OF THE 13/00Z
ECENS-NAEFS-GEFS RESPECTIVELY SHOULD YIELD GOOD RESULTS FOR THE
APPROXIMATE POSITION/ALIGNMENT OF THE POLAR JET (564DM HEIGHT
LINE) AND THE ARCTIC JET (522DM HEIGHT CONTOUR) ACROSS THE NORTH
AMERICAN CONTINENT.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD---THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS AND ACCELERATED
JET-LEVEL WINDS ADVANCING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...MIGRATE EASTWARD
AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES---DOWNWIND OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (ALONG 90W ON TUESDAY/DAY5). THE SURFACE
FEATURE/WAVE TRACKING FROM THE MS DELTA TO THE OUTER BANKS SHOULD
USHER IN THE 'NEW' ARCTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH PRECIPITATION WHISKING RAPIDLY INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN BY DAY 5. THE DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC 13/00Z ECMWF MIGHT PROVIDE THE BETTER "MIDDLE
GROUND" DETAILS WITH THE THE ENTIRE TROUGH AXIS CARVING OUT FROM
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY---VERSUS A
SLIGHTLY FASTER CANADIAN AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTION BEYOND DAY 5. IN PARTICULARLY...THE TIMING OF THE
EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS
ACROSS KEY AREAS---INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES (BIG LAKE-EFFECT
SNOWS)...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA/THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
(CONVECTION OVER OPEN WATERS MOVING ATOP A COLD AIRMASS) AND
EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING/COLORADO AND NORTHEAST TEXAS (STREAKS OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENESIS). NOT A PERFECT PROG...BUT
HELPFUL WITH THE VERY SUBTLE...BUT WINTRY P-TYPE DETAILS
ABOVE/WITHIN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS---AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
IN THE WEST...FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND PRESENCE OF AN ACTIVE NORTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC JET UPWIND OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WESTERN
CANADA'S HIGH TERRAIN CREATES A VERY CHALLENGING
'SPLIT-FLOW/NEGATIVE-TILT' CONFIGURATION THAT INITIALLY PRODUCES
THE THREAT OF OVER-RUNNING MOISTURE FOR
WASHINGTON...OREGON...IDAHO. THEN ITS MIGRATION SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
COAST...INTO CENTRAL-SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE SIERRA AND
DOWNSTREAM INFLUENCES ACROSS NEVADA CREATES SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES. SOMETHING MORE---DETERMINISTIC CANADIAN-ECMWF "LIKE"
WOULD BE RECOMMENDED TO BETTER HANDLE THE TRICKY OFFSHORE-ONSHORE
TRANSITION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS PRESUPPOSITION INCLUDES
THE SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY AND MIGRATION OF A MODERATELY-INTENSE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CASCADE/SIERRA SPINE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. ITS PRESENCE REINFORCING THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS INTO DAY
4-5...AND DELAYING THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING PACIFIC TROUGH AND ITS
CHARACTERISTICS/CONFIGURATION---IE CUTOFF AND/OR OPEN-WAVE.
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
A VERY PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOCAL LAKE-EFFECT SNOWFALL EVENTS WILL
PREVAIL AT VARIOUS TIMES ACROSS ALL 5 GREAT LAKES. WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ALREADY PRESENT...HARD TO IMAGINE HOW MUCH MORE
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE...PROLIFIC? NUMBERS ARE POSSIBLE. ANOMALOUS?
CERTAINLY. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE COLD AIR...EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND RELENTLESS CYCLONIC FLOW (THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PARAMETERS
IN PLACE) THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY 4-7 PERIOD TO GIVE EACH LAKE
AND THEIR SHORELINES THE THREAT OF UNUSUALLY-HIGH AMOUNTS OF
ACCUMULATION. OBVIOUSLY...THE SHORT-TERM WIND DIRECTION WILL PLAY
A CRITICAL ROLE. THE VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY AND INTENSITY OF LAKE-EFFECT DOWNSTREAM---WITH FAVORED
WINDWARD SLOPES AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC FEATURES PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FLOW...BEARING THE BRUNT OF THE LAKE-EFFECT PROCESS.
WELL-BELOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE NATION... RANGING FROM 10-25F BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MIDWEST
AND PLAINS. THE MODIFIED...BUT STILL THE AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE AND CHILLY MORNINGS FOR THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA.
SECONDARY SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR---WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/GREAT BASIN IN THE DAY 3-4 PERIOD 'SETS UP' AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR LOW SNOW LEVELS AND THE THREAT OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN. THE DEPTH OF AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE WEST
COAST...AND ACTIVE 'SCOURING PROCESS' OF THE MODIFIED-ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE...WILL BE A LOCALLY-SENSITIVE SENSIBLE WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH DAY 6.
VOJTESAK
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1059 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014
VALID 12Z SUN NOV 16 2014 - 12Z THU NOV 20 2014
...COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...
...OVERVIEW...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN OVER CANADA AND ALASKA WILL
SUSTAIN AND MAINTAIN THE NORTH AMERICAN ARCTIC AIRMASS THROUGH
THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE PATTERN SPREADS
THE MODIFIED-ARCTIC AIRMASS DEEP INTO SOUTHERN
STATES...FLORIDA...THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
THE DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ALONG THE WEST
COAST PRODUCES AN ACTIVE PACIFIC JET AND A GRADUAL EQUATORWARD
MIGRATION OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF THE NATION FOR DAYS 6-7.
...UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...
IT CANNOT BE OVERSTATED HOW IMPORTANT THE SUSTAINED PRESENCE OF
ARCTIC AIR AND THE REPLENISHMENT OF THE AIRMASS DURING THIS MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD WILL BE---TO SETTING UP A WINTRY P-TYPE PATTERN ALONG
ITS OUTER FRINGES---IN REGIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND GREAT
BASIN/LEE OF THE CASCADES.
IN THE WEST...THE UNCERTAINTY AND FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
ABILITY OF ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW---AT LOW LEVELS AND AT JET
LEVEL---TO SCOUR OUT THE DRY/COLD CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
DRAPE...EXPANDING OVER A GREATER SURFACE AREA OF THE WESTERN
STATES.
IN THE SOUTH...THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE ABILITY OF THE JET-LEVEL
WINDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN
TROUGH...TO PROMOTE LIFT AND ELEVATE THE PROSPECTS FOR A WINTER
P-TYPE REGIME FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GULF COAST.
...MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE CANADIAN...ECMWF...GFS AND UKMET 13/00Z CYCLE AND THE
ECENS...GEFS...NAEFS REASONABLY DEPICT THE MASS FIELDS THROUGH DAY
5. THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC RUNS VERSUS THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS---FOCUS ON TIMING OF THE PRIMARY AND SECONDARY
MID-LEVEL WAVE ENERGY TRANSPORT---ALONG AN ACTIVE UPPER-LEVEL JET
AXIS. FOR THE DAY 5-7 TIME FRAME...A 50/30/20 BLEND OF THE 13/00Z
ECENS-NAEFS-GEFS RESPECTIVELY SHOULD YIELD GOOD RESULTS FOR THE
APPROXIMATE POSITION/ALIGNMENT OF THE POLAR JET (564DM HEIGHT
LINE) AND THE ARCTIC JET (522DM HEIGHT CONTOUR) ACROSS THE NORTH
AMERICAN CONTINENT.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD---THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS AND ACCELERATED
JET-LEVEL WINDS ADVANCING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...MIGRATE EASTWARD
AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES---DOWNWIND OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (ALONG 90W ON TUESDAY/DAY5). THE SURFACE
FEATURE/WAVE TRACKING FROM THE MS DELTA TO THE OUTER BANKS SHOULD
USHER IN THE 'NEW' ARCTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH PRECIPITATION WHISKING RAPIDLY INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN BY DAY 5. THE DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC 13/00Z ECMWF MIGHT PROVIDE THE BETTER "MIDDLE
GROUND" DETAILS WITH THE THE ENTIRE TROUGH AXIS CARVING OUT FROM
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY---VERSUS A
SLIGHTLY FASTER CANADIAN AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTION BEYOND DAY 5. IN PARTICULARLY...THE TIMING OF THE
EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS
ACROSS KEY AREAS---INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES (BIG LAKE-EFFECT
SNOWS)...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA/THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
(CONVECTION OVER OPEN WATERS MOVING ATOP A COLD AIRMASS) AND
EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING/COLORADO AND NORTHEAST TEXAS (STREAKS OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENESIS). NOT A PERFECT PROG...BUT
HELPFUL WITH THE VERY SUBTLE...BUT WINTRY P-TYPE DETAILS
ABOVE/WITHIN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS---AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
IN THE WEST...FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND PRESENCE OF AN ACTIVE NORTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC JET UPWIND OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WESTERN
CANADA'S HIGH TERRAIN CREATES A VERY CHALLENGING
'SPLIT-FLOW/NEGATIVE-TILT' CONFIGURATION THAT INITIALLY PRODUCES
THE THREAT OF OVER-RUNNING MOISTURE FOR
WASHINGTON...OREGON...IDAHO. THEN ITS MIGRATION SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
COAST...INTO CENTRAL-SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE SIERRA AND
DOWNSTREAM INFLUENCES ACROSS NEVADA CREATES SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES. SOMETHING MORE---DETERMINISTIC CANADIAN-ECMWF "LIKE"
WOULD BE RECOMMENDED TO BETTER HANDLE THE TRICKY OFFSHORE-ONSHORE
TRANSITION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS PRESUPPOSITION INCLUDES
THE SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY AND MIGRATION OF A MODERATELY-INTENSE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CASCADE/SIERRA SPINE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. ITS PRESENCE REINFORCING THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS INTO DAY
4-5...AND DELAYING THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING PACIFIC TROUGH AND ITS
CHARACTERISTICS/CONFIGURATION---IE CUTOFF AND/OR OPEN-WAVE.
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
A VERY PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOCAL LAKE-EFFECT SNOWFALL EVENTS WILL
PREVAIL AT VARIOUS TIMES ACROSS ALL 5 GREAT LAKES. WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ALREADY PRESENT...HARD TO IMAGINE HOW MUCH MORE
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE...PROLIFIC? NUMBERS ARE POSSIBLE. ANOMALOUS?
CERTAINLY. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE COLD AIR...EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND RELENTLESS CYCLONIC FLOW (THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PARAMETERS
IN PLACE) THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY 4-7 PERIOD TO GIVE EACH LAKE
AND THEIR SHORELINES THE THREAT OF UNUSUALLY-HIGH AMOUNTS OF
ACCUMULATION. OBVIOUSLY...THE SHORT-TERM WIND DIRECTION WILL PLAY
A CRITICAL ROLE. THE VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY AND INTENSITY OF LAKE-EFFECT DOWNSTREAM---WITH FAVORED
WINDWARD SLOPES AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC FEATURES PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FLOW...BEARING THE BRUNT OF THE LAKE-EFFECT PROCESS.
WELL-BELOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE NATION... RANGING FROM 10-25F BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MIDWEST
AND PLAINS. THE MODIFIED...BUT STILL THE AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE AND CHILLY MORNINGS FOR THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA.
SECONDARY SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR---WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/GREAT BASIN IN THE DAY 3-4 PERIOD 'SETS UP' AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR LOW SNOW LEVELS AND THE THREAT OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN. THE DEPTH OF AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE WEST
COAST...AND ACTIVE 'SCOURING PROCESS' OF THE MODIFIED-ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE...WILL BE A LOCALLY-SENSITIVE SENSIBLE WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH DAY 6.
VOJTESAK
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Maybe the flip side is we'll get our last freeze around New Year's and an early spring. One can hope at least....
Quick glance at Hi-res Euro shows 35 tonight and 31 next week. Hmmm.
Quick glance at Hi-res Euro shows 35 tonight and 31 next week. Hmmm.
This arctic blast punched us right in the kisser.Heat Miser wrote:Already long john weather, what.
You were right srain; this definitely did not give us a glancing blow.
Last edited by cperk on Thu Nov 13, 2014 4:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
sky are beinging to clear....I would not trust that guidance its going to get cold I am guessing 27 for Conroe. What everyone else think?
Well, as the NWS just noted, it will be tricky due to passing clouds. Their latest point-to-click forecast has me at 29, so that's what I'm betting on at the casa.
Freakin' way too cold too early but that's just me.
Freakin' way too cold too early but that's just me.
-
BlueJay
- Posts: 938
- Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:47 am
- Location: Alden Bridge-The Woodlands, Texas
- Contact:
Sky to the North and East are clear as a bell but it is cloudy to the South and West. Our high temperature today was 45F and is beginning to slowly drop.
I think we will hit the freezing mark and a bit lower-maybe 29F (?). The bigger concern is how long will the temperatures be below 32F? 8-10 hours is too long.
I like jasons' positive outlook. I'd be very pleased to welcome spring in January 2015!
Keep alert and warm everyone!
I think we will hit the freezing mark and a bit lower-maybe 29F (?). The bigger concern is how long will the temperatures be below 32F? 8-10 hours is too long.
I like jasons' positive outlook. I'd be very pleased to welcome spring in January 2015!
Keep alert and warm everyone!
didn't stay at freezing temps very long, but it did get there, so glad I covered the plants
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/gmap.p ... density=10
http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/o ... loope.html
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
442 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
COLD MORNING WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH. AFTER COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICE...WILL KEEP THE FREEZE WARNING UP FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL EXPIRATION TIME JUST IN CASE A LOCATION OR TWO DOWN SOUTH BREAKS OUT OF THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THAT HAS BEEN KEEPING SOUTHERN TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO THE FREEZING LEVEL. WEEKEND WEATHER STILL LOOKS INCREASINGLY CLOUDY AND WET AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE WARMER. 42
from NOAA http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail2.p ... iaTypeID=1
A cold front sweeping deep into the Southern U.S. is bringing freezing temperatures to large parts of the country. This image from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model shows the minimum surface air temperature expected from November 13th through midnight EST on the 14th. Areas shaded blue are at or below freezing. The National Weather Service has issued freeze warnings for an area that stretches from eastern Texas to Georgia. This cold snap is expected to bring an end to the growing season for much of the Gulf region.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/gmap.p ... density=10
http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/o ... loope.html
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
442 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
COLD MORNING WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH. AFTER COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICE...WILL KEEP THE FREEZE WARNING UP FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL EXPIRATION TIME JUST IN CASE A LOCATION OR TWO DOWN SOUTH BREAKS OUT OF THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THAT HAS BEEN KEEPING SOUTHERN TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO THE FREEZING LEVEL. WEEKEND WEATHER STILL LOOKS INCREASINGLY CLOUDY AND WET AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE WARMER. 42
from NOAA http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail2.p ... iaTypeID=1
A cold front sweeping deep into the Southern U.S. is bringing freezing temperatures to large parts of the country. This image from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model shows the minimum surface air temperature expected from November 13th through midnight EST on the 14th. Areas shaded blue are at or below freezing. The National Weather Service has issued freeze warnings for an area that stretches from eastern Texas to Georgia. This cold snap is expected to bring an end to the growing season for much of the Gulf region.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19623
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
No official freeze at IAH, but it came close with a 34F reading before the clouds moved back in. I had a couple of hours at 32F here in NW Harris County. Clouds and slow warming today as the next upper air disturbance moves in from the W and up glide over the shallow cold at the surface weakens as the Arctic high shifts further E. Saturday looks like a heat wave as temperatures warm further in response to the Coastal Low/trough organizing along the Middle/Upper Texas Coast Saturday night. We may see some storms fire over the Coastal waters and into Beaumont/Lake Charles Saturday night into early Sunday. A strong upper air disturbance drops S from Canada on Saturday and that feature will drive another sharp cold front across Texas during the day on Sunday. There is still some disagreement in the computer guidance with a fast moving disturbance Sunday night across Texas. The Euro is a bit stronger and further S into Texas while the GFS and Canadian models are further N into the Southern Plains and have little if any moisture or lift associated with this short wave trough. Monday night still looks very cold, but I am cautious since the sub tropical jet still looks noisy and I'm not confident we will clear out just like what happened over night. We will see.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
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Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2509
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
Thanks to overcast skies the temps did not fall to the forecast lows with most areas in the mid to upper 30s. Freezing temp are N of I-10 with upper 20s from Conroe northward. The SE TX weekend weather looks wet with upper 50s and low 60s as low pressure and associated warm front move along the Middle and Upper TX Coast. There remains a slight chance of light rain changing to light snow or flurries across NTX Sunday.
-
wxman57
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2621
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:34 am
- Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)
- Contact:
The clouds kept me from winning the first freeze contest at work. I have the earliest date of any entry (Nov. 21st), so any freeze before then and I win. I've been trying to win one of these for over 15 years.
33F here. Banana trees still perky. A reprieve of a few days, anyway.
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Andrew
- Site Admin
- Posts: 3446
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
- Location: North-West Houston
- Contact:
I think you will have another shot next weekwxman57 wrote:The clouds kept me from winning the first freeze contest at work. I have the earliest date of any entry (Nov. 21st), so any freeze before then and I win. I've been trying to win one of these for over 15 years.
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I've officially gone into hibernation mode.... 