May: IAH Does Not Reach 90 During May. 1970 Mark Achieved

[srainhoutx]

After a number of long time record low temperatures were tied or broken, a quiet and rather benign pattern should set up for the next 6-7 days. There is growing consensus via the global and ensemble guidance that the Eastern Pacific tropical activity may begin to increase along the monsoonal trough and the Euro and GFS are sniffing tropical cyclone genesis possibilities once again next week. It appears the area favored for TC genesis will be just W of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the various guidance are suggesting another Western trough developing near the same time. While we will warm up, recent rains should help keep our temperature near or slightly above normal. Later next week as the Upper Ridge shift E, a return flow off the Gulf with some enhancement of deep tropical moisture from the NW Caribbean Sea and the Bay of Campeche should slowly increase our rain chances once again.

Looking longer range toward the late May time frame, it may be possible that tropical trouble may shift into our Basin in the Western Caribbean/SW Gulf as a robust Kelvin wave spreads convection and instability further E. In a transitioning pattern where El Nino may develop, we often see early season tropical systems develop in the NW Caribbean and Western Gulf. Time will tell.

[wxman57]

Not even a trace of rain on the 12Z GFS today. Beautiful temperature plot, though. Perfect cycling weather.

[redneckweather]

Awesome temperature plot indeed! It would of been nice for this rain to be spread out a bit but it definitely came at the right time. Y'all should see the San Jacinto River up here under I-45. I guess they are letting water out of Lake Conroe because it is as high as I have seen it in a VERY VERY long time! All the creeks along the San Jacinto River are backed up and can't drain off. A very welcome sight.

[srainhoutx]

The trend of below normal temperatures continue for Mid May. The good news for our neighbors in NW Texas and Western Oklahoma where an exceptional drought is ongoing, and the chances of increasing rainfall as the Western trough hangs up and ushers in moisture rounding the W side of the Gulf of Mexico Upper Ridge and some unsettled weather in the Eastern Pacific as we head into the late next week timeframe and the Memorial Day long weekend.

[jasons2k]

I spent the last week at Disney, so I got to see the deluge from afar. The system had some punch in Orlando too but luckily it didn't mess up our plans

I came home to 5.05" in the old rain bucket. That's the most rain since July of 2012. The grass is green and I am a happy camper.

Edit: I'm at 12.67" for the year. Almost half of that is in the last 2 weeks.

[jasons2k]

Euro sure paints a decent system moving through around Memorial Day. 2-3" most of SE Texas.

[Ptarmigan]

I am not a cold weather person but I must say I was concerned about a 2011 repeat. Change is good!

I do not think 2011 repeat will happen. The end of 2011 had La Nina, while we are seeing El Nino developing.

Euro sure paints a decent system moving through around Memorial Day. 2-3" most of SE Texas.

I hope that is the case, so we get more rain.

[jasons2k]

Not the latest run. A tenth or two through 10 days.

Yep - it's all gone now! No cooldown either.

[srainhoutx]

The good news is rainfall amounts continue to increase across areas that desperately need rain. As a +PDO regime continues which suggests a general Western trough and the Pacific becomes more active convective wise, I tend to believe that general pattern is slowly but surely shifting in the right direction.

05182014 09Z 7 Day QPF p168i.gif

05182014 06Z gfs-ens_apcpn_namer_63.png

[Ptarmigan]

The good news is rainfall amounts continue to increase across areas that desperately need rain. As a +PDO regime continues which suggests a general Western trough and the Pacific becomes more active convective wise, I tend to believe that general pattern is slowly but surely shifting in the right direction.

05182014 09Z 7 Day QPF p168i.gif

05182014 06Z gfs-ens_apcpn_namer_63.png

A warm (positive) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is more favorable for rain as the warm air from the Pacific holds more moisture. Houston sees more rain during warm PDO. The late 1970s to late 1990s was wetter as a result of warm PDO.

A positive PDO also means less hurricane activity, especially with a cool (negative) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). PDO is like El Nino in a way. However, when PDO and AMO are positive, it can lead to very active hurricane season like 1933, 1995, 2004, and 2005. Some of the most active season occurred in that combination. That same combination of warm PDO and AMO contribute to severe drought. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s occurred during positive PDO and AMO.

[srainhoutx]

The guidance continue to trend in favor of a good soaking multi day rain event across W, NW Texas and Oklahoma where they desperately need a good rain. If the Western trough continues to trend slower to eject out of the 4 Corners Region, the better chance that Pacific and Gulf moisture will spread across those areas as the Eastern Gulf Upper Ridge loosens its grip across the Lone Star State.

[jasons2k]

Euro has .2" early next week and moving into the 90's by the end of the week. Looks like summer is upon us....

[srainhoutx]

The guidance is slowly trending toward a multi-day heavy rainfall event across W, NW N and Central Texas extending into Oklahoma during the Memorial Day Weekend period. PW’s are expected to increase to at least two standard deviations above normal for this time of year. The Western trough and closed low should meander across the Great Basin into New Mexico and daily dry line convection should provide several episodes of copious rainfall potential that likely will shift into the Hill Country on Memorial Day. Those with travel plans to the Highland Lakes may want to keep a close eye to the sky for any rapidly developing storms.

[Katdaddy]

Low 70s, partly cloudy to cloudy skies, and humid this morning. Feeling like normal SE TX late May weather through the holiday weekend. We will be needing more rain by next week.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Upper level ridge of high pressure centered over eastern TX/western LA this morning with a deep upper level trough just inland of the US west coast and a second upper level trough located off the NE US coast southeast of ME. Main storm track extends from the four corners areas ENE across the central and northern plains and Midwest and then ESE across the NE US.

Pattern in place is supportive of dry and warm weather as a near summertime ridge has established itself over the region. Good news is that the feature appears to not be anchored in place and is forecast to flatten and build westward over the next 3-5 days as the western US trough moves toward the central plains. This will allow deeper Gulf moisture to surge into TX starting this weekend with rain chances increasing mainly west of I-35 or across the areas plagued by significant drought conditions. Pattern setup is potentially favorable for several periods of heavy rainfall across SW/W/NW TX starting this weekend so some additional drought relieve is possible.

Locally across SE TX the upper level ridge does not look to give enough ground and helps to shunt the upper level trough NW of our area. Increasing moisture and temperatures in the upper 80’s may be enough to from a few scattered showers or thunderstorms by Sunday with better chances Monday and Tuesday. With most of the upper support passing to our NW most of the activity will remain isolated to scattered with little surface focus except possibly the seabreeze front.

Until this weekend a daily repeat of the last few days with partly cloudy afternoon and gusty south winds and warm/humid overnight conditions. Highs near 90 and lows near 70.

[jasons2k]

Euro a little better today - shows 0.7" for IAH next Mon-Tue. GFS dry as a bone, just some trace streamers.

[srainhoutx]

Euro a little better today - shows 0.7" for IAH next Mon-Tue. GFS dry as a bone, just some trace streamers.

The 12Z GFS continues to advertise the upper low/trough will retrograde and sit over portions of Louisiana and SE Texas next week. I'm not sure I buy that, but the Euro and Canadian had been on board with that potential. We will see.

[BlueJay]

In other words... HOOK UP THE SOAKER HOSE!

[Ptarmigan]

Euro a little better today - shows 0.7" for IAH next Mon-Tue. GFS dry as a bone, just some trace streamers.

The 12Z GFS continues to advertise the upper low/trough will retrograde and sit over portions of Louisiana and SE Texas next week. I'm not sure I buy that, but the Euro and Canadian had been on board with that potential. We will see.

Nice to see areas that are in the worst drought getting rain. If we do not see rain and I see Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma getting most of the rain, I would be just as happy.

[Katdaddy]

Upper TX Coast skies are becoming tropical finally. 11 days until the official beginning of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Are you ready? It only takes one.