Yes. There was a chance of showers this evening with the front that came through. Very few I imagine are actually seeing rain though since the lower levels are dry. Most of rain on radar probably isn't reaching the ground.Rip76 wrote:Was it supposed to rain tonight?
February-Comfortable Days/Cool Nights To The Month
Blake
Boomer Sooner
Boomer Sooner
Unfortunately what's reaching the ground, is on the truck I washed this afternoon.
Thanks, I haven't had the chance to keep up in the last few weeks.
Thanks, I haven't had the chance to keep up in the last few weeks.
Is it just me, or does that disturbance heading SE (currently in North TX and in OK) a little more potent than models were showing? If I recall, Kansas City, MO was only expecting flurries tonight. However, looks like close to and around the city picked up near an inch or more of snow. Same for Oklahoma, they were only expecting flurries to a few snow showers and the are clearly seeing more than what was being predicted. Looks like the disturbance is quickly riding SE and I can only wonder if that would put our northern counties at a greater chance of "snow" than "flurries"?
Blake
Boomer Sooner
Boomer Sooner
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19623
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
A nice weekend is ahead for our Region with near Chamber of Commerce weather, so get out and enjoy it as change are ahead next week.
A very complex split zonal flow pattern develops where the cold air to the N and the return of Gulf and Pacific moisture will set the stage for a very potent Winter Storm to develop mid week across the Southern Great Basin and begin to slowly eject ENE into the Mid West later in the week. The trends overnight have been to slow the storm system down by about 24 hours and the Euro and ensembles have trend that way ~vs~ the faster North American model/ensemble (GFS/GEFS/Canadian) solution. Warm sector severe weather chances have increased with an impressive 100kt + jet streak crossing Texas on Wednesday into Thursday and the mean trough axis becomes neutral to negative tilted. Further N in the cold sector across the higher elevations of the Southern Central Rockies and Central/Northern Plains, blizzard conditions appear likely as cold air across Canadian is pulled S by the exiting early week storm complex over the NE. The mid week storm appear to be very powerful and will be very dynamic bring a wide spread storm to much of North America. It does appear another storm system will arrive later next week along the Pacific setting the stage for yet another storm event as we head into next weekend. The long range guidance continues to advertise this stormy, somewhat progressive pattern will linger into the last week of February.
Euro:
Euro Ensembles:
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2013
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH RUNS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...PARTICULARLY WITH
REGARD TO A STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DIG
INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEEP MID-LEVEL CLOSED
LOW MAY EVOLVE AS THE IMPULSE MIGRATES INLAND...BUT IT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...AS ANOTHER IMPULSE EMERGES FROM THE STRONG
UPSTREAM MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC JET...AND APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST BY MID WEEK.
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD SYSTEM...WHICH STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO
LIFT EAST NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING...SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...INCLUDING AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS...ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS MOST PROBABLE
THAT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED
ON THURSDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO
DESTABILIZATION...AND RETURN FLOW CONTINUES OFF AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AS THIS MOISTURE OVERRUNS A RESIDUAL COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
LINGERING OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
...THE MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER MAY NOT BECOME
PARTICULARLY BROAD. BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SIZABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...AT LEAST ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE ON THE MORE STRONGLY DIFLUENT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW... AND
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAY INCLUDE THE RISK FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW TORNADOES.
..KERR.. 02/16/2013
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
153 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2013
VALID 12Z TUE FEB 19 2013 - 12Z SAT FEB 23 2013
...SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY...
...OVERVIEW...
THREE AREAS OF UPPER RIDGING SURROUNDING THE CONUS /OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC... HUDSON BAY... AND NEAR CUBA/ SHOULD HELP
BLOCK/GUIDE SEVERAL SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK. SPLIT FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC
SHOULD DIG SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WEST BEFORE EJECTING OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. COLD CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE HIGH PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
...MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH SAT/D7. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES SEEN BETWEEN THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF/ECMWF
ENSEMBLES REMAIN THE SAME... WITH THE FORMER JUST A BIT QUICKER
THAN THE LATTER OVERALL. THOUGH A WEIGHTED COMPROMISE USUALLY
PROVES BEST... THE TREND IN THE PAST 24 HRS HAS BEEN TOWARD A
SLOWER EXODUS OF THE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SFC SYSTEMS IN THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THU/D5. THUS... OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS OVER THE GEFS SOLUTION.
THE UKMET/CANADIAN LARGELY SIDE WITH THE ECMWF CLUSTER AS WELL.
THE LARGEST SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES APPEARS BY SAT/D7 OVER THE
PAC NW... WHERE THE GFS/GEFS MEMBERS FORECAST ANYTHING FROM A
CLOSED LOW TO WEAK TROUGHING TO RIDGING. THE ECMWF MEMBERS SUGGEST
TROUGHING WITH DECREASED SPREAD SINCE 24 HRS AGO... BUT GIVEN ITS
ORIGIN UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC /WITH A 160KT+ JET/... THIS
MAY VERY WELL CHANGE AT LEAST IN TIMING IF NOT AMPLITUDE.
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
FIRST SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE/D3 SHOULD EXIT STAGE RIGHT
OVER MAINE ON WED/D4... WITH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS IN ITS
WAKE THAT SHOULD END BY THU/D5. IN THE WEST... DIGGING UPPER LOW
IS STILL FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH SOUTHERN
NV/NORTHERN AZ BEFORE REFORMING OVER SE CO THU/D5. WITH COLD AIR
IN PLACE TO THE NORTHEAST... EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD SET UP A DECENT
UPSLOPE EVENT IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH HEAVY SNOW EXTENDING
EASTWARD INTO NEBRASKA. WITH PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE LOW
AND HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST OVER 40MB... BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SEEM
QUITE POSSIBLE. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS THROUGH KANSAS... 12Z/15
ECMWF WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN ITS MEAN /AND THE GFS/ THOUGH GIVEN
THE SLOWER TREND IN THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SEEMED REASONABLE.
THE GULF SHOULD BE OPEN FOR BUSINESS BY THU/D5 WITH GEFS
PROBABILITY OF PW OF AT LEAST ONE INCH OVER 50 PERCENT UP TO KY/TN
BORDER. ENSEMBLE MEANS ALREADY PUTTING OUT ABOUT 1.50IN OF QPF IN
THE FRI-SAT/D6-7 TIME FRAME WITH SOME WETTER MEMBERS OVER 3 INCHES
/GEFS/ OR EVEN 5 INCHES /ECMWF ENSEMBLES/. SEVERE WEATHER ALSO A
POSSIBILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR /SEE SPC FOR LATEST DAY 4-8
OUTLOOK/. SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND THEN
POSSIBLY DEVELOPS ANOTHER MAIN SFC LOW OFFSHORE. WESTERN STATES
WILL SEE ANOTHER TROUGH DIG THROUGH THE SW FRI/D6... BUT LIKELY
NOT AS STRONG AS THE ONE PRIOR.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT MORE
VARIABLE IN THE EAST... OSCILLATING BETWEEN RELATIVELY WARMER AND
COLDER AHEAD OF AND BEHIND EACH SYSTEM... RESPECTIVELY. THE WEST
SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RELOADING TROUGH. THE
GULF COAST AND FLORIDA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER CUBA AND ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
FRACASSO
A very complex split zonal flow pattern develops where the cold air to the N and the return of Gulf and Pacific moisture will set the stage for a very potent Winter Storm to develop mid week across the Southern Great Basin and begin to slowly eject ENE into the Mid West later in the week. The trends overnight have been to slow the storm system down by about 24 hours and the Euro and ensembles have trend that way ~vs~ the faster North American model/ensemble (GFS/GEFS/Canadian) solution. Warm sector severe weather chances have increased with an impressive 100kt + jet streak crossing Texas on Wednesday into Thursday and the mean trough axis becomes neutral to negative tilted. Further N in the cold sector across the higher elevations of the Southern Central Rockies and Central/Northern Plains, blizzard conditions appear likely as cold air across Canadian is pulled S by the exiting early week storm complex over the NE. The mid week storm appear to be very powerful and will be very dynamic bring a wide spread storm to much of North America. It does appear another storm system will arrive later next week along the Pacific setting the stage for yet another storm event as we head into next weekend. The long range guidance continues to advertise this stormy, somewhat progressive pattern will linger into the last week of February.
Euro:
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2013
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH RUNS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...PARTICULARLY WITH
REGARD TO A STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DIG
INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEEP MID-LEVEL CLOSED
LOW MAY EVOLVE AS THE IMPULSE MIGRATES INLAND...BUT IT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...AS ANOTHER IMPULSE EMERGES FROM THE STRONG
UPSTREAM MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC JET...AND APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST BY MID WEEK.
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD SYSTEM...WHICH STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO
LIFT EAST NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING...SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...INCLUDING AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS...ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS MOST PROBABLE
THAT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED
ON THURSDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO
DESTABILIZATION...AND RETURN FLOW CONTINUES OFF AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AS THIS MOISTURE OVERRUNS A RESIDUAL COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
LINGERING OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
...THE MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER MAY NOT BECOME
PARTICULARLY BROAD. BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SIZABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...AT LEAST ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE ON THE MORE STRONGLY DIFLUENT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW... AND
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAY INCLUDE THE RISK FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW TORNADOES.
..KERR.. 02/16/2013
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
153 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2013
VALID 12Z TUE FEB 19 2013 - 12Z SAT FEB 23 2013
...SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY...
...OVERVIEW...
THREE AREAS OF UPPER RIDGING SURROUNDING THE CONUS /OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC... HUDSON BAY... AND NEAR CUBA/ SHOULD HELP
BLOCK/GUIDE SEVERAL SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK. SPLIT FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC
SHOULD DIG SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WEST BEFORE EJECTING OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. COLD CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE HIGH PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
...MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH SAT/D7. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES SEEN BETWEEN THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF/ECMWF
ENSEMBLES REMAIN THE SAME... WITH THE FORMER JUST A BIT QUICKER
THAN THE LATTER OVERALL. THOUGH A WEIGHTED COMPROMISE USUALLY
PROVES BEST... THE TREND IN THE PAST 24 HRS HAS BEEN TOWARD A
SLOWER EXODUS OF THE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SFC SYSTEMS IN THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THU/D5. THUS... OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS OVER THE GEFS SOLUTION.
THE UKMET/CANADIAN LARGELY SIDE WITH THE ECMWF CLUSTER AS WELL.
THE LARGEST SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES APPEARS BY SAT/D7 OVER THE
PAC NW... WHERE THE GFS/GEFS MEMBERS FORECAST ANYTHING FROM A
CLOSED LOW TO WEAK TROUGHING TO RIDGING. THE ECMWF MEMBERS SUGGEST
TROUGHING WITH DECREASED SPREAD SINCE 24 HRS AGO... BUT GIVEN ITS
ORIGIN UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC /WITH A 160KT+ JET/... THIS
MAY VERY WELL CHANGE AT LEAST IN TIMING IF NOT AMPLITUDE.
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
FIRST SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE/D3 SHOULD EXIT STAGE RIGHT
OVER MAINE ON WED/D4... WITH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS IN ITS
WAKE THAT SHOULD END BY THU/D5. IN THE WEST... DIGGING UPPER LOW
IS STILL FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH SOUTHERN
NV/NORTHERN AZ BEFORE REFORMING OVER SE CO THU/D5. WITH COLD AIR
IN PLACE TO THE NORTHEAST... EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD SET UP A DECENT
UPSLOPE EVENT IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH HEAVY SNOW EXTENDING
EASTWARD INTO NEBRASKA. WITH PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE LOW
AND HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST OVER 40MB... BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SEEM
QUITE POSSIBLE. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS THROUGH KANSAS... 12Z/15
ECMWF WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN ITS MEAN /AND THE GFS/ THOUGH GIVEN
THE SLOWER TREND IN THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SEEMED REASONABLE.
THE GULF SHOULD BE OPEN FOR BUSINESS BY THU/D5 WITH GEFS
PROBABILITY OF PW OF AT LEAST ONE INCH OVER 50 PERCENT UP TO KY/TN
BORDER. ENSEMBLE MEANS ALREADY PUTTING OUT ABOUT 1.50IN OF QPF IN
THE FRI-SAT/D6-7 TIME FRAME WITH SOME WETTER MEMBERS OVER 3 INCHES
/GEFS/ OR EVEN 5 INCHES /ECMWF ENSEMBLES/. SEVERE WEATHER ALSO A
POSSIBILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR /SEE SPC FOR LATEST DAY 4-8
OUTLOOK/. SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND THEN
POSSIBLY DEVELOPS ANOTHER MAIN SFC LOW OFFSHORE. WESTERN STATES
WILL SEE ANOTHER TROUGH DIG THROUGH THE SW FRI/D6... BUT LIKELY
NOT AS STRONG AS THE ONE PRIOR.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT MORE
VARIABLE IN THE EAST... OSCILLATING BETWEEN RELATIVELY WARMER AND
COLDER AHEAD OF AND BEHIND EACH SYSTEM... RESPECTIVELY. THE WEST
SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RELOADING TROUGH. THE
GULF COAST AND FLORIDA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER CUBA AND ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
FRACASSO
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19623
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
One last day for our Region to dazzle our guests for the NBA All Star Weekend festivities with Chamber of Commerce weather before changes begin as those guest depart. A very progressive and stormy pattern develops for our Region this week into the weekend as an active storm pattern with its origins across the N Pacific ride up and over a NE Pacific Ridge and dive SE into the Great Basin develops and tropical moisture from the Eastern Pacific and a noisy sub tropical jet become the main weather drivers during the next 10-12 days. SE Ridge become anchored across Florida and Cuba limiting intrusions of modified Continental air into the Gulf setting the stage for a series of stalling frontal boundaries and waves of embedded short wave energy sliding along those stalled boundaries allowing deep Gulf moisture to pool across the NW Gulf. Meanwhile to the W, multiple deep storm systems wrap up and move across the Rockies and Great Plains on E as a blocking regime develops over the NW Atlantic. While cold air in Canada will may some intrusions S into the Continental United States, the main theme will likely be Blizzard conditions across Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, South and North Dakota with freezing rain/sleet likely across the Mid West into the Mid Atlantic States.
Further S in the warm sector, rain and increasing chances for storms which may well become severe will be the major weather headline of the week. Our Region will be on the warm side of the storm systems which will begin to take shape tomorrow and extend into the coming work week and may well extend into the late next weekend time frame. One thing of note is the areas that have been affected by lingering drought conditions across the Central Plains may well benefit from such a stormy pattern. Across Texas, the first storm appears rather weak and brings the best chance of rains across NE Texas into Arkansas and Louisiana, Monday night into Tuesday with the first Pacific front to cross the area.
That front will stall along the Coastal areas and retreat N as a much stronger storm develops late Tuesday into Wednesday in Arizona and begins to slowly march ENE across Northern New Mexico with a trough axis becoming neutral to negative tilted by late Wednesday into Thursday. The dynamic with this storm are very impressive with 150+ kt winds in the 250mb level and 100+ kt at the 500mb level as well as strong lee side cyclogenesis expected across the Panhandles of TX/OK and Western Kansas. A squall line will likely develop across W Texas and slowly march E on late Wednesday into Thursday. The greatest threat for severe weather appears to be for areas E of the I-35 Corridor on Thursday with the highest chance of rotating super cells and tornadoes across E Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi.
A third very potent storm system is suggested by computer models to enter our region next weekend continuing the very active and storm pattern.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2013
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PHASING OF A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...WITHIN A SPLIT BELT OF WESTERLIES EMERGING
FROM THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER IMPULSE WITHIN A
BELT OF WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TURN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AS A STRONG DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
CONTRIBUTES TO THE EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST.
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD WAVE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGING
SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPPER HALF OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT...OF PACIFIC
ORIGINS...IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...PERHAPS OVERTAKING A DEVELOPING/SHARPENING DRY
LINE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET /50-70+ KT/ APPEARS LIKELY TO
FORM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY WELL INLAND OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS...WHERE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER MODEST. GIVEN THIS...AND A WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER STILL IN THE EARLY STAGES OF RECOVERY FROM
RECENT COOLING/DRYING...IT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THAT INLAND
MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN WEAK IN MAGNITUDE. SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL OCCUR
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MOST OF
THIS...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF VERY WEAK CAPE...ABOVE A RESIDUAL COOL
AND STABLE SURFACE BASED LAYER. AS A RESULT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE FOR MOST AREAS.
...PARTS OF ERN TX AND THE ARKLATEX INTO SRN AR...
MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION COULD
DEVELOP IN A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR...ALONG THE DEVELOPING DRY
LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY RETURN
AS FAR NORTH AS THE ARKLATEX...CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE GENERALLY ON THE
ORDER OF 500 J/KG OR LESS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AND CAPE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS
CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF THE PHASING OF THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
...AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO
EXIST FOR LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE THE FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE. AND...IF
THIS OCCURS...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUPERCELL OR TWO.
..KERR.. 02/17/2013
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2013
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC...JUST AHEAD OF THE CREST OF A BROAD... BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE...AN UPPER TROUGH...AMPLIFYING NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST AT
12Z TUESDAY...IS FORECAST TO TURN INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THE
LATTER FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN
PLATEAU BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND MAY GRADUALLY BEGIN TO COME IN PHASE
WITH A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC. AS THIS OCCURS...AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF STATES...A LOW/MID- LEVEL CYCLONE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD STALL ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA/NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... WHILE ADVANCING EAST OF MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
RECOVER FROM RECENT COOLING/DRYING...AND A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CONTRIBUTING TO
MOISTENING ABOVE THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT DESTABILIZATION ABOVE
THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BECOME
SUFFICIENT FOR AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.
..KERR.. 02/17/2013
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2013
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GENERAL TRENDS
OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS CONCERNING A MAJOR UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED STRONG JET STREAK THAT APPEAR LIKELY TO EMERGE FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH
AXIS STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND
DEAMPLIFYING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. PRIMARY SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN
KANSAS...BUT MODELS INDICATE SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS
OF NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AN EVOLVING SQUALL LINE...AND
INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...AS FORCING ENCOUNTERS BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGHEST SEVERE
PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO EXIST ON THURSDAY...AS THE WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE DEVELOP EASTWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE WAVE MAY REACH THE MID 60S ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DIFLUENT HIGH LEVEL
FLOW AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS NEAR/AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE... WITH A RISK FOR
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..KERR.. 02/17/2013
Further S in the warm sector, rain and increasing chances for storms which may well become severe will be the major weather headline of the week. Our Region will be on the warm side of the storm systems which will begin to take shape tomorrow and extend into the coming work week and may well extend into the late next weekend time frame. One thing of note is the areas that have been affected by lingering drought conditions across the Central Plains may well benefit from such a stormy pattern. Across Texas, the first storm appears rather weak and brings the best chance of rains across NE Texas into Arkansas and Louisiana, Monday night into Tuesday with the first Pacific front to cross the area.
That front will stall along the Coastal areas and retreat N as a much stronger storm develops late Tuesday into Wednesday in Arizona and begins to slowly march ENE across Northern New Mexico with a trough axis becoming neutral to negative tilted by late Wednesday into Thursday. The dynamic with this storm are very impressive with 150+ kt winds in the 250mb level and 100+ kt at the 500mb level as well as strong lee side cyclogenesis expected across the Panhandles of TX/OK and Western Kansas. A squall line will likely develop across W Texas and slowly march E on late Wednesday into Thursday. The greatest threat for severe weather appears to be for areas E of the I-35 Corridor on Thursday with the highest chance of rotating super cells and tornadoes across E Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi.
A third very potent storm system is suggested by computer models to enter our region next weekend continuing the very active and storm pattern.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2013
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PHASING OF A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...WITHIN A SPLIT BELT OF WESTERLIES EMERGING
FROM THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER IMPULSE WITHIN A
BELT OF WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TURN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AS A STRONG DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
CONTRIBUTES TO THE EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST.
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD WAVE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGING
SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPPER HALF OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT...OF PACIFIC
ORIGINS...IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...PERHAPS OVERTAKING A DEVELOPING/SHARPENING DRY
LINE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET /50-70+ KT/ APPEARS LIKELY TO
FORM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY WELL INLAND OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS...WHERE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER MODEST. GIVEN THIS...AND A WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER STILL IN THE EARLY STAGES OF RECOVERY FROM
RECENT COOLING/DRYING...IT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THAT INLAND
MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN WEAK IN MAGNITUDE. SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL OCCUR
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MOST OF
THIS...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF VERY WEAK CAPE...ABOVE A RESIDUAL COOL
AND STABLE SURFACE BASED LAYER. AS A RESULT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE FOR MOST AREAS.
...PARTS OF ERN TX AND THE ARKLATEX INTO SRN AR...
MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION COULD
DEVELOP IN A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR...ALONG THE DEVELOPING DRY
LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY RETURN
AS FAR NORTH AS THE ARKLATEX...CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE GENERALLY ON THE
ORDER OF 500 J/KG OR LESS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AND CAPE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS
CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF THE PHASING OF THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
...AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO
EXIST FOR LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE THE FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE. AND...IF
THIS OCCURS...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUPERCELL OR TWO.
..KERR.. 02/17/2013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2013
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC...JUST AHEAD OF THE CREST OF A BROAD... BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE...AN UPPER TROUGH...AMPLIFYING NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST AT
12Z TUESDAY...IS FORECAST TO TURN INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THE
LATTER FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN
PLATEAU BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND MAY GRADUALLY BEGIN TO COME IN PHASE
WITH A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC. AS THIS OCCURS...AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF STATES...A LOW/MID- LEVEL CYCLONE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD STALL ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA/NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... WHILE ADVANCING EAST OF MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
RECOVER FROM RECENT COOLING/DRYING...AND A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CONTRIBUTING TO
MOISTENING ABOVE THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT DESTABILIZATION ABOVE
THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BECOME
SUFFICIENT FOR AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.
..KERR.. 02/17/2013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2013
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GENERAL TRENDS
OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS CONCERNING A MAJOR UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED STRONG JET STREAK THAT APPEAR LIKELY TO EMERGE FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH
AXIS STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND
DEAMPLIFYING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. PRIMARY SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN
KANSAS...BUT MODELS INDICATE SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS
OF NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AN EVOLVING SQUALL LINE...AND
INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...AS FORCING ENCOUNTERS BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGHEST SEVERE
PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO EXIST ON THURSDAY...AS THE WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE DEVELOP EASTWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE WAVE MAY REACH THE MID 60S ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DIFLUENT HIGH LEVEL
FLOW AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS NEAR/AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE... WITH A RISK FOR
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..KERR.. 02/17/2013
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19623
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:12Z GFS & Euro have a Sunday/Monday signal for possiuble fun-derstorms, and the Thursday morning IMBY sounding has less of a 700 mb warm nose, great mid level instability and lots of shear, and even if storms are elevated, while low levels aren't unstable, not mondo-stable either, so maybe some 50 knot gusts mixing down?
It looks like we will get some additional RECON from Hawaii from the G-IV. Interestingly they will be flying E of HI toward the Baja sampling near the sub tropical jet.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EST SUN 17 FEBRUARY 2013
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z FEBRUARY 2013
WSPOD NUMBER.....12-079
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49
A. P52/ DROP 10 (22.3N 129.0W)/ 19/0000Z
B. NOAA9 13WSC TRACK52
C. 18/1930Z
D. 19 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 19/0600Z
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE
P53/ DROP 9 (15.5N 131.8W)/ 20/0000Z
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2508
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
A small window for a few strong to severe cells NE of the Houston area today however a more significant threat looks to be Thursday:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
523 AM CST MON FEB 18 2013
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-191130-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
523 AM CST MON FEB 18 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
TO 35 MPH IN SOME AREAS. WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE THIS
MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND A CAP OF WARM AIR ALOFT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY APPEARS SMALL AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCREASES
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
SOUTH AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG WIND SHEAR
AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM NORTH OF A BRENHAM...CONROE...LIVINGSTON
LINE. AT THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS AND
THE CAP MAY BE WEAKER. THE DETAILS OF THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
MAY STILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THIS TIME FRAME
NEEDS TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED TODAY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
NEEDED THURSDAY.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
523 AM CST MON FEB 18 2013
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-191130-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
523 AM CST MON FEB 18 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
TO 35 MPH IN SOME AREAS. WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE THIS
MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND A CAP OF WARM AIR ALOFT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY APPEARS SMALL AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCREASES
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
SOUTH AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG WIND SHEAR
AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM NORTH OF A BRENHAM...CONROE...LIVINGSTON
LINE. AT THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS AND
THE CAP MAY BE WEAKER. THE DETAILS OF THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
MAY STILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THIS TIME FRAME
NEEDS TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED TODAY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
NEEDED THURSDAY.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19623
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
As Katdaddy just posted, HGX has increased their interest in the overnight Wednesday into Thursday time frame for portions of SE Texas. The SPC has outlined a Slight Risk for portions of Central/North Texas in their Day 3 Outlook. It appears that the warm front will have retreated far enough N ( roughly near Waco to Jasper) that may allow for rotating super cells along and just ahead of an advancing Pacific front. Damaging winds with an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out roughly from Junction on E into Austin late Wednesday as a linear line of storms develop and progress E. Bowing segments appear to be the greatest threat at this time.
Heavy rainfall is possible as PW's increase to 1.6 which is near 2 standard deviation above normal for this time of year mainly across far E Texas/Louisiana and along and N of the Northern/NE Gulf Coastal Regions. That Pacific front may stall near the Coast allowing for continued rain chances into Friday as the parent storm system lifts N into the Central/Northern Plains. Rain and storm chances again increase Sunday into next Monday as yet another potent storm ejects from the Great Basin into the Southern/Central Plains.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
140 AM EST MON FEB 18 2013
VALID 12Z THU FEB 21 2013 - 12Z MON FEB 25 2013
...SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO IOWA
THURSDAY...
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
...OVERVIEW...
THE VERY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL STAY IN
PLACE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE GRAVY TRAIN OF PACIFIC
SYSTEMS TAKES THE SCENIC ROUTE THROUGH THE COUNTRY. THESE
SPRING-LIKE SYSTEMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER /THANKS TO THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO/ WITH MODEST
SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH. RIDGING OVER HUDSON BAY AND CUBA/BAHAMAS
SHOULD FORCE SYSTEMS IN BETWEEN WHILE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE
BETWEEN HAWAII AND ALASKA MAY EAST WESTWARD BY SUN-MON/D6-7.
...MODEL PREFERENCES...
LITTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE CHANGE HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES
OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH RESPECT TO THE GENERAL FLOW. THE
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE NUDGED THEIR FORECASTS AROUND A COMMON
FOCI WITH EACH ITERATION... AND THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE WELL
CORRELATED. A BLEND BETWEEN THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF WAS USED AS
THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST THROUGH DAY 7. THE UKMET WAS SOMEWHAT
IN BETWEEN THE TWO PRIMARY MODELS WHEN THEY DID DIFFER... BUT THE
CANADIAN REMAINS THE OUTLIER.
BY SUN-MON/D6-7... ANOTHER POTENT DIGGING WESTERN TROUGH OR
PERHAPS A CLOSED LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND OUT ONTO
THE PLAINS... IN SIMILAR FASHION TO THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
ON THU/D3. MODELS HAVE BEEN LESS CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING/STRENGTH
AND THE ENSEMBLES ARE FAIRLY WEAK... BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
MODEST SYSTEM GIVEN THE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF
PROBABLY ALONE FORGED A GOOD COMPROMISE POSITION... THE FASTER
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING SUGGESTED A BIT QUICKER PROGRESSION.
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW STILL FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS... WITH
SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD IOWA BY FRI/D4. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH FORECAST SFC WINDS NEAR 30KTS AND GUSTS OVER 40KTS
ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN NE INTO IA LATE THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
STILL A THREAT IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY THU/D3 /SEE LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK/. SYSTEM HEADS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS/SHEARS WITH ENERGY
TRANSFERRING TO THE COAST. SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT SHOULD GET
HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND... AND FLOW
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD PUMP IN AMPLE GULF
MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD. QPF PER THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS FOR DAYS 4-7 ARE STILL IN THE 4-6 INCH RANGE
WITH INCREASING NUMBERS SEEN IN THE MEANS /OVER 2 INCHES/.
LAST SYSTEM IN THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE A WEAKER VERSION OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM OF NOTE ON THU/D3... WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OR
CLOSED LOW MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS. STILL SOME MURKY DETAILS AT
THIS FAR OUT BUT A SWATH OF SNOW TO THE NORTH... MODERATE RAINS TO
THE SOUTH... AND COLDER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE ARE ALL POSSIBLE
BY EARLY IN THE WEEK IN THE CENTRAL CONUS. THOUGH ANECDOTALLY ALL
LOWS GO TO CHICAGO... 500MB CLOSED LOW CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS THIS "SW
FREEWAY" FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE WESTERN LAKES... SO A
REPETITIVE TRACK MAY INDEED BE POSSIBLE.
FRACASSO
Heavy rainfall is possible as PW's increase to 1.6 which is near 2 standard deviation above normal for this time of year mainly across far E Texas/Louisiana and along and N of the Northern/NE Gulf Coastal Regions. That Pacific front may stall near the Coast allowing for continued rain chances into Friday as the parent storm system lifts N into the Central/Northern Plains. Rain and storm chances again increase Sunday into next Monday as yet another potent storm ejects from the Great Basin into the Southern/Central Plains.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
140 AM EST MON FEB 18 2013
VALID 12Z THU FEB 21 2013 - 12Z MON FEB 25 2013
...SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO IOWA
THURSDAY...
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
...OVERVIEW...
THE VERY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL STAY IN
PLACE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE GRAVY TRAIN OF PACIFIC
SYSTEMS TAKES THE SCENIC ROUTE THROUGH THE COUNTRY. THESE
SPRING-LIKE SYSTEMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER /THANKS TO THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO/ WITH MODEST
SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH. RIDGING OVER HUDSON BAY AND CUBA/BAHAMAS
SHOULD FORCE SYSTEMS IN BETWEEN WHILE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE
BETWEEN HAWAII AND ALASKA MAY EAST WESTWARD BY SUN-MON/D6-7.
...MODEL PREFERENCES...
LITTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE CHANGE HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES
OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH RESPECT TO THE GENERAL FLOW. THE
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE NUDGED THEIR FORECASTS AROUND A COMMON
FOCI WITH EACH ITERATION... AND THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE WELL
CORRELATED. A BLEND BETWEEN THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF WAS USED AS
THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST THROUGH DAY 7. THE UKMET WAS SOMEWHAT
IN BETWEEN THE TWO PRIMARY MODELS WHEN THEY DID DIFFER... BUT THE
CANADIAN REMAINS THE OUTLIER.
BY SUN-MON/D6-7... ANOTHER POTENT DIGGING WESTERN TROUGH OR
PERHAPS A CLOSED LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND OUT ONTO
THE PLAINS... IN SIMILAR FASHION TO THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
ON THU/D3. MODELS HAVE BEEN LESS CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING/STRENGTH
AND THE ENSEMBLES ARE FAIRLY WEAK... BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
MODEST SYSTEM GIVEN THE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF
PROBABLY ALONE FORGED A GOOD COMPROMISE POSITION... THE FASTER
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING SUGGESTED A BIT QUICKER PROGRESSION.
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW STILL FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS... WITH
SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD IOWA BY FRI/D4. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH FORECAST SFC WINDS NEAR 30KTS AND GUSTS OVER 40KTS
ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN NE INTO IA LATE THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
STILL A THREAT IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY THU/D3 /SEE LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK/. SYSTEM HEADS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS/SHEARS WITH ENERGY
TRANSFERRING TO THE COAST. SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT SHOULD GET
HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND... AND FLOW
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD PUMP IN AMPLE GULF
MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD. QPF PER THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS FOR DAYS 4-7 ARE STILL IN THE 4-6 INCH RANGE
WITH INCREASING NUMBERS SEEN IN THE MEANS /OVER 2 INCHES/.
LAST SYSTEM IN THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE A WEAKER VERSION OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM OF NOTE ON THU/D3... WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OR
CLOSED LOW MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS. STILL SOME MURKY DETAILS AT
THIS FAR OUT BUT A SWATH OF SNOW TO THE NORTH... MODERATE RAINS TO
THE SOUTH... AND COLDER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE ARE ALL POSSIBLE
BY EARLY IN THE WEEK IN THE CENTRAL CONUS. THOUGH ANECDOTALLY ALL
LOWS GO TO CHICAGO... 500MB CLOSED LOW CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS THIS "SW
FREEWAY" FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE WESTERN LAKES... SO A
REPETITIVE TRACK MAY INDEED BE POSSIBLE.
FRACASSO
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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Morning e-mail from Jeff:
Highly progressive flow will result in rapid weather changes over the next several days.
An upper level trough currently moving into the central plains will push a cool front into the area late today into tonight. Prior to this a strong low level jet on the order of 30-40kts just above the surface will transport a modified Gulf air mass into the region today. Once the sun is up we will begin to see vertical mixing of the stronger winds aloft toward the surface. Expect easily sustained winds of 20-25mph from mid morning through mid afternoon with gust in the 30-35mph range. A Wind Advisory has been issued for all SE TX counties for today for strong south winds. As moisture increase today a few streamer showers will be possible under a building capping inversion in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Cool front arrives tonight and crosses the region by morning. Overall lack of instability due to poor quality moisture return off the Gulf and stubborn mid level capping suggest strong sheared environment will go untapped. Think the best we will do is a thin line of showers along the front with better chances for a strong or possibly severe storm over the Houston, Walker, Trinity, Polk, San Jacinto county region as with the past several frontal passages.
Area will see brief surface high pressure progress across the region on Tuesday before the next system begins to arrive on Wednesday and Thursday. Surface boundary off the coast will begin to lift northward as a warm front on Wednesday. Strong isentropic lift will develop over the top of this boundary and expect widespread low clouds, fog, light rain and drizzle to develop early Wednesday morning. Weak waves in the southern stream sub-tropical jet will support an enhancement of activity possibly Wednesday afternoon with a few thunderstorms possible. Warm front will clear north of SE TX Wednesday night as the region awaits the arrival of a Pacific cold front early Thursday. While moisture return does look more plentiful with this system, instability may be lacking yet again and capping could once again be an issue. While models are more supportive of a line of thunderstorms…some severe on Thursday morning…I think it is best to hold back on any severe concerns at this point as there are a few big negatives that will have to be overcome…especially that stubborn capping inversion that has been ever so persistent this late winter due to the storm track being slightly too far north. However with that said this system does bear close watch as shear will be very strong and if the cap can be overcome rotating updrafts would be possible especially near the warm front which will be straddling our north/northeast counties.
Thursday front slows near the coast as some additional energy digs into the trough over the plains. Front should finally get enough push to move well offshore by Friday with skies clearing. Once again, the fast progressive flow brings another system toward the area by late in the weekend or early next week.
Highly progressive flow will result in rapid weather changes over the next several days.
An upper level trough currently moving into the central plains will push a cool front into the area late today into tonight. Prior to this a strong low level jet on the order of 30-40kts just above the surface will transport a modified Gulf air mass into the region today. Once the sun is up we will begin to see vertical mixing of the stronger winds aloft toward the surface. Expect easily sustained winds of 20-25mph from mid morning through mid afternoon with gust in the 30-35mph range. A Wind Advisory has been issued for all SE TX counties for today for strong south winds. As moisture increase today a few streamer showers will be possible under a building capping inversion in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Cool front arrives tonight and crosses the region by morning. Overall lack of instability due to poor quality moisture return off the Gulf and stubborn mid level capping suggest strong sheared environment will go untapped. Think the best we will do is a thin line of showers along the front with better chances for a strong or possibly severe storm over the Houston, Walker, Trinity, Polk, San Jacinto county region as with the past several frontal passages.
Area will see brief surface high pressure progress across the region on Tuesday before the next system begins to arrive on Wednesday and Thursday. Surface boundary off the coast will begin to lift northward as a warm front on Wednesday. Strong isentropic lift will develop over the top of this boundary and expect widespread low clouds, fog, light rain and drizzle to develop early Wednesday morning. Weak waves in the southern stream sub-tropical jet will support an enhancement of activity possibly Wednesday afternoon with a few thunderstorms possible. Warm front will clear north of SE TX Wednesday night as the region awaits the arrival of a Pacific cold front early Thursday. While moisture return does look more plentiful with this system, instability may be lacking yet again and capping could once again be an issue. While models are more supportive of a line of thunderstorms…some severe on Thursday morning…I think it is best to hold back on any severe concerns at this point as there are a few big negatives that will have to be overcome…especially that stubborn capping inversion that has been ever so persistent this late winter due to the storm track being slightly too far north. However with that said this system does bear close watch as shear will be very strong and if the cap can be overcome rotating updrafts would be possible especially near the warm front which will be straddling our north/northeast counties.
Thursday front slows near the coast as some additional energy digs into the trough over the plains. Front should finally get enough push to move well offshore by Friday with skies clearing. Once again, the fast progressive flow brings another system toward the area by late in the weekend or early next week.
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Portastorm
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:^^ have been interested in late Wednesday into Thursday since mid week, and I'm close to becoming more optimistic than the current glass quarter full I have been, as 0Z models were encouraging. 12Z Models could bump be up to 5/16th or even 3/8t optimistic.
Still quarter full for now,
I'm with you on this one, Ed. Would love to see some heavy funderstorms in the AUS area (Hill Country too, actually) to help replenish the Highland Lakes chain. At the rate we're going, Lake Travis may drop below last year's levels by this summer. I didn't think it possible but in this drought, I guess anything is.
Hoping to see that glass become half full by lunchtime!
TORNADO WARNING
TXC339-407-471-182000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0001.130218T1931Z-130218T2000Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
131 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 200 PM CST
* AT 126 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR WILLIS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILLIS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3045 9517 3035 9544 3042 9552 3062 9535
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 232DEG 7KT 3043 9545
$$
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srainhoutx
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Nice little bust today as far as that forecast of little rain and nothing severe. It just goes to show that sometimes the models under estimate the capping and that may well be the case once again late Wednesday into Thursday. A brief look into the medium/long range suggests this pattern will not be quick to leave and we are likely to remain in a progressive/stormy pattern with some possible intrusions of 'colder' air as a blocking regime become well established (-NAO/-AO) over the NW Atlantic and a +PNA attempts to develop as we head toward the end of February. We will see.
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srainhoutx
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E-mail update from Jeff:
Strong to severe thunderstorms have develop early this afternoon over Montgomery and San Jacinto Counties with tornado warnings ongoing on two separate cells. Activity appears associated with modest heating which has helped to break the mid level capping inversion and possible weak upper air disturbance noted on water vapor images over central TX. Expect activity will continue for the next few hours especially north of I-10 where capping is weakest, but will need to keep a close eye on cells over Fort Bend and NW Harris Counties as if they are able to break through the cap and utilize the strong lwo level shear in place they could become tornadic.
Strong to severe thunderstorms have develop early this afternoon over Montgomery and San Jacinto Counties with tornado warnings ongoing on two separate cells. Activity appears associated with modest heating which has helped to break the mid level capping inversion and possible weak upper air disturbance noted on water vapor images over central TX. Expect activity will continue for the next few hours especially north of I-10 where capping is weakest, but will need to keep a close eye on cells over Fort Bend and NW Harris Counties as if they are able to break through the cap and utilize the strong lwo level shear in place they could become tornadic.
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srainhoutx
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0167
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX/SW LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 182008Z - 182115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS SE TX WHILE MOVING NEWD INTO SW LA. STORMS MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WINDS BUT THE THREAT SHOULD
BE TRANSIENT...LEADING TO A LOW PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE.
ADDITIONALLY...A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BE THE
THREAT APPEARS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENED WITHIN THE WAA REGIME
ACROSS SE TX. CLOUD COVER AND WARM PROFILES HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY
THUS FAR BUT MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST SOME
DESTABILIZATION. RECENT MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS SBCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG
AND MLCAPE AROUND 250 J/KG. THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
KEEP STORMS SHALLOW AND THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW.
HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS MODEST INSTABILITY...THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WINDS...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY CELL
MERGERS. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY REFLECTS THIS POSSIBILITY WITH
ROTATING STORMS NOTED IN MONTGOMERY AND SAN JACINTO COUNTIES IN SE
TX. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR...A BRIEF/TRANSIENT
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW.
..MOSIER/HART.. 02/18/2013
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX/SW LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 182008Z - 182115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS SE TX WHILE MOVING NEWD INTO SW LA. STORMS MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WINDS BUT THE THREAT SHOULD
BE TRANSIENT...LEADING TO A LOW PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE.
ADDITIONALLY...A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BE THE
THREAT APPEARS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENED WITHIN THE WAA REGIME
ACROSS SE TX. CLOUD COVER AND WARM PROFILES HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY
THUS FAR BUT MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST SOME
DESTABILIZATION. RECENT MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS SBCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG
AND MLCAPE AROUND 250 J/KG. THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
KEEP STORMS SHALLOW AND THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW.
HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS MODEST INSTABILITY...THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WINDS...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY CELL
MERGERS. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY REFLECTS THIS POSSIBILITY WITH
ROTATING STORMS NOTED IN MONTGOMERY AND SAN JACINTO COUNTIES IN SE
TX. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR...A BRIEF/TRANSIENT
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW.
..MOSIER/HART.. 02/18/2013
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
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srainhoutx
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Damage reports now coming in for the Shepherd area.
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TexasBreeze
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It helps to have the storms come in at peak heating and have the sun heat things up beforehand to break the cap!
000
FXUS64 KHGX 182203
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
403 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE DAY ON TWO FRONTS...HIGH ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND A FEW NORTHERN COUNTY DISCREET
THUNDERSTORM CELLS THAT DISPLAYED GOOD ENOUGH ROTATION IN PROMPTING
A FEW TORNADO WARNINGS. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE EXPIRING AT THE
TOP OF THE HOUR AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH MID-EVENING. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET AND WEAKEN THIS TIGHT ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
RADAR DEPICTS A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH MANY INDIVIDUAL CELLS
DISPLAYING VERY WEAK ROTATION...LOWERING DBZ TRENDS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM...TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FROPA
WILL BRIEFLY TURN WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND EAST BEFORE COMING
ONSHORE AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS...WITH JUST SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...AS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL COME IN WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL (OR THE
AVERAGE UPPER 60S). MID-WEEK WEATHER TURNS MORE OVERCAST AND WET
AS A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH AN EVENTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH POPS
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED...BECOMING NUMEROUS INTO THURSDAY...RAIN
EPISODES WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AS WAS THE CASE TODAY...A
DEVELOPING LL JET WILL INCREASE 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES SO MANY CELL
UPDRAFTS WILL ROTATE. LOWER THERMO INDICES ALBEIT HIGHER THAN
TODAY...WITH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA CAPES NEARING THE 1K CAPE
(NAM)...WHILE THE MORE WET GFS SOLUTION IS MUCH MORE STABLE (LITTLE
TO NO CAPE WITH LOWER K-INDICES DUE TO A WARMER MORE MOIST COLUMN).
ALL AND ALL...DEFINITELY HWO WORTHY AS DISCRETE CELLS...ESPECIALLY
JUST AHEAD OF AN EARLY THURSDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD BEST TAP
INTO THIS LL SHEAR AND BETTER THERMODYNAMICS DURING A TIME THAT
THE UPPER LEVELS ARE MOST CONDUCIVE (DIFFULENT) IN SUPPORT OF
STRONG DISCREET CELLS OR EVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (ACROSS NORTHEASTERN INTO EASTERN CWA) THURSDAY
MORNING. LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONT MAY
BECOME STATIONARY AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL FOCUS. EXTENDED
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A WEEKEND WESTERN UPPER TROUGH...THE
SLOWER ECMWF INCREASES SUN-MON RAIN CHANCES WITH THE GFS REMAINING
DRY THROUGH PERIOD`S END. 31
&&
.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AN
SCA WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WILL MAINTAIN AN SCEC FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND POSSIBLE
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 45 67 45 57 55 / 20 10 30 70 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 50 69 47 60 60 / 50 10 20 70 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 55 64 53 65 65 / 30 10 20 60 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
FXUS64 KHGX 182203
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
403 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE DAY ON TWO FRONTS...HIGH ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND A FEW NORTHERN COUNTY DISCREET
THUNDERSTORM CELLS THAT DISPLAYED GOOD ENOUGH ROTATION IN PROMPTING
A FEW TORNADO WARNINGS. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE EXPIRING AT THE
TOP OF THE HOUR AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH MID-EVENING. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET AND WEAKEN THIS TIGHT ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
RADAR DEPICTS A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH MANY INDIVIDUAL CELLS
DISPLAYING VERY WEAK ROTATION...LOWERING DBZ TRENDS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM...TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FROPA
WILL BRIEFLY TURN WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND EAST BEFORE COMING
ONSHORE AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS...WITH JUST SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...AS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL COME IN WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL (OR THE
AVERAGE UPPER 60S). MID-WEEK WEATHER TURNS MORE OVERCAST AND WET
AS A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH AN EVENTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH POPS
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED...BECOMING NUMEROUS INTO THURSDAY...RAIN
EPISODES WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AS WAS THE CASE TODAY...A
DEVELOPING LL JET WILL INCREASE 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES SO MANY CELL
UPDRAFTS WILL ROTATE. LOWER THERMO INDICES ALBEIT HIGHER THAN
TODAY...WITH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA CAPES NEARING THE 1K CAPE
(NAM)...WHILE THE MORE WET GFS SOLUTION IS MUCH MORE STABLE (LITTLE
TO NO CAPE WITH LOWER K-INDICES DUE TO A WARMER MORE MOIST COLUMN).
ALL AND ALL...DEFINITELY HWO WORTHY AS DISCRETE CELLS...ESPECIALLY
JUST AHEAD OF AN EARLY THURSDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD BEST TAP
INTO THIS LL SHEAR AND BETTER THERMODYNAMICS DURING A TIME THAT
THE UPPER LEVELS ARE MOST CONDUCIVE (DIFFULENT) IN SUPPORT OF
STRONG DISCREET CELLS OR EVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (ACROSS NORTHEASTERN INTO EASTERN CWA) THURSDAY
MORNING. LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONT MAY
BECOME STATIONARY AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL FOCUS. EXTENDED
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A WEEKEND WESTERN UPPER TROUGH...THE
SLOWER ECMWF INCREASES SUN-MON RAIN CHANCES WITH THE GFS REMAINING
DRY THROUGH PERIOD`S END. 31
&&
.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AN
SCA WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WILL MAINTAIN AN SCEC FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND POSSIBLE
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 45 67 45 57 55 / 20 10 30 70 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 50 69 47 60 60 / 50 10 20 70 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 55 64 53 65 65 / 30 10 20 60 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
I was going through my old weather pictures I have on my computer (hence finally after two years I put an avatar up), and came across this picture. I thought I might would help those feeling down on the winter we've had so far and think twice on wanting to rush into Spring/Summer. Of course, wxman57 will fall in love with this.
The true heat of summer really kicked on on the last day, Sunday.
The true heat of summer really kicked on on the last day, Sunday.
Blake
Boomer Sooner
Boomer Sooner
I'll put up with the 100* days in the summer in order to wear flip flops and shorts while the rest of the country is shoveling snow.
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TexasBreeze
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