The HPC stated the 12Z OP Euro was bogus as well. They're expecting the 00Z Euro ensembles have a better handle on things at this time. That said as we all well know, meso features are darn near impossible to forecast 24 hours out and confidence remains low to medium at best.
By Sunday, the global models should have an excellent handle on tomorrow's weather.
Well the flood watch was just issued, so the timing is about right for the models to pull the rug out and dry slot us. I wouldn't be such a cynic if I didn't see it happen so often hehe.
It appears the Canadian may well be the winner of the various model solutions over the past 24 hours regarding how events will unfold today across Central/SE Texas as EPAC Miriam and Norman remnants spread NE from Mexico. The Canadian has been more correct in suggesting S Central TX would be the area to watch and now the 00Z UKMet has joined that solution. Areas S of San Antonio has seen rounds of stronger storms and Flash Flood Warnings as well as a Severe Thunderstorm Warning since 1AM. It appears a meso low will move NE along the HWY 59 Corridor and pass directly over the Houston Metro tonight/early Sunday morning. Heavy showers/storms continue to develop near and to the W of Victoria heading N while the meso low and developing surface low pressure moves NE. The HPC 1-2 Day QPF Forecast just issued now places along and N of HWY 59 in the 'favored' area with some 5+ inch isolated rainfall totals. The latest SPC Updated also suggests that stronger storms with gusty winds are not out of the question as well. Some rainfall rates in the 1-3 inch per hour range may not be out of the question and we'll need to monitor for training cells as the flow off the Gulf increases this morning ahead of the advancing surface low to our S and W. It does appear as if everyone in SE TX will see some rainfall from this event before the surface low and upper low over W Texas passes us off to the E tomorrow ending our rain chances as we end September.
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
546 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2012
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 29/1200 UTC THRU OCT 02/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1...
UPDATED...OPTED TO GIVE THE FINAL DAY1 QPF OVR A LITTLE MORE
'AMPLIFIED' LOOK UPPING AMTS ALONG THE DEFORMATION ZONE ASOCTD
WITH THE H7 LO. THE GEM REGIONAL CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL OF
CHOICE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARING TO HAVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES. OTHERWISE..ADJUSTED FCST BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
...TX TO THE LOWER MS VLY...
THE VRY IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL MSTR PLUME OBSERVED IN CURRENT STLT
IMAGERY..AND SHRTWV ENERGY EMBEDDED IN IT WORKING NEWD INTO TX IS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A VRY SGFNT RNFL EVENT ACROSS THE AREA.
PROBLEM HOWEVER IS AT WHAT LATITUDE TO PLACE THE MAXIMA PCPN
TOTALS WITH THERE BEING DIFFERENT FCST CAMPS IN THIS REGARD. THE
UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE ON THE SIDE OF A MORE SRN SOLUTION
CLOSER TO COAST AND THE BETTER PWS AND INSTABILITY WHILE THE NCEP
MODELS AND YDAS ECMWF ARE FARTHER TO THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE
DEFORMATION AXIS ASOCTD WITH THE MID LVL CNTR. AT THIS TIME FEEL
THE FORCING ASOCTD WITH THE FORMATION OF THE SFC LO INVOF THE TX
COAST AROUND MID PD AND THE LACK OF STG MID LVL CNTR SUGGESTS
BUYING INTO THE MORE SRN SOLUTION. IN ADDITION..LAST NIGHTS GEM
REGIONAL DID A BANG UP JOB PARTICULARLY ON THE IDEA OF HVY CNVCTN
RAINS DVLPNG OVR S CNTRL TX TNGT AS COMPARED TO THE NCEP GLOBAL
MODELS AND THE ECMWF. THE FACT THAT THE UKMET NOW SUPPORTS TNGTS
GEM REGIONAL SCENARIO AT LEAST IN REGARDS TO THE MAXIMA LENDS MORE
CREDENCE TO THE GEMS FCST. FINALLY..IF THE MORE SRN SOLUTION
WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SFC BNDRY OCCURS..IT SHOULD LIMIT THE
MSTR FLUX NWWD TO THE DEFORMATION ZONE/ISENTROPIC LIFT CLOSER TO
THE TRACK OF THE H7 CNTR.
Attachments
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/29/12 0705Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-14 0645Z
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...LUB...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...MOD TO HEAVY RAINS
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGEST A SOLUTION WHERE RAINFALL WITH UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKELY
IS EVOLVING INTO TO MAX AREAS. ONE SITUATED ALONG THE DEEP SOUTH AND
CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF TX...WHILE THE OTHER N AND W ACROSS CENTRAL
TX. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3" ARE POSSIBLE THRU 12Z...WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST AREA MENTIONED.
DEEP SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTAL TX...COLD CLOUD-TOP COMPLEX OF TSTMS IS
FINALLY BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN TX AS IT
HEADS TOWARD CORPUS CHRISTI AND SURROUNDING AREAS. BOTH RADAR AND IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CELLS TRACKING NNW FROM
GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 20-25 KT LLVL SRLY FLOW. ANTICIPATING SEVERAL
CELL MERGERS TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS WITH THESE CELLS AND COLD
CLOUD-TOP COMPLEX MOVING EWD.
ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND N OF A STATIONARY SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WARM
MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO OVERRUN IN VERY DIFFLUENT REGION OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM. EXPERIMENTAL SATELLITE DERIVED DIVERGENCE PRODUCT HAS BEEN
SUGGESTING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER
THE LAST FEW HRS ACROSS THIS AREA...WITHIN DEFORMATION ZONE. MCV IS
SLOWING TRYING TO PULL AWAY...NEAR MIDLAND...BUT THIS WILL BE A RATHER
SLOW PROCESS WITH MOD TO HEAVY RAINS PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
TX FOR THE NEXT 4-6 HRS.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0700-1200Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SEEMS TO BE ADVANCING MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR A BIT FASTER THAN MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS.
WITH THAT SAID...THINKING MOD TO HEAVY RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL TX MAY BEGIN
TO WIND DOWN BY MID TO LATE MORNING. KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR POTENTIAL
TORRENTIAL RAINS IN AND AROUND CORPUS CHRISTI NEXT 1-3 HRS AS CELL MERGES
IN VERY MOIST AIRMASS COULD RESULT IN RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2.0"/HR.
.
Attachments
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
The first MCS just helped to 'prime the pump' so to speak. A warm front has retreated N of Metro Houston and now that dry layer that was present in the sounding done last night at CLL has been fully saturated. Keep an eye out W of the San Antonio/Austin area this afternoon as the surface low and upper low meander E this evening into the overnight hours. No bust just yet...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Low center is near San Angelo now. Should pass near Waco this afternoon and be between Lufkin and Longview in the morning. This means heaviest rain should pass well to our north, as the Euro has been forecasting since yesterday. Cold front moves through near sunrise tomorrow. Rain should end a bit before then. May see a break in the rain here in Houston over the next few hours as the western edge of the first round of rain is nearly to Houston.
Seems like the more a rain event is hyped the less rain we actually get lol. Drizzle here for hours...not enough to water the plants...just enough to be a pain in the butt
cancelles super chevy at royal purple raceway today and VW CAr show in tomball for all this rain we are suppose to get! oh well. lazy saturday spent in the house!
txflagwaver wrote:Seems like the more a rain event is hyped the less rain we actually get lol. Drizzle here for hours...not enough to water the plants...just enough to be a pain in the butt
Yeah, I've had a whopping .29" here with round 1, and most of that was from one cell earlier this morning. Round 2 not looking as robust either. Par for the course.
Just a nice lovely long lasting rain.
