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srainhoutx wrote:Major change with the 12Z GFDL. That Hurricane model no longer is suggesting a Major Hurricane in the Central Gulf and is further W than it had been suggesting as well.

forgive my ignorance but what does that mean for us?

Belmer wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:Major change with the 12Z GFDL. That Hurricane model no longer is suggesting a Major Hurricane in the Central Gulf and is further W than it had been suggesting as well.

The further west it has wouldn't be good for us. However, I'm not sure why they are making Ernesto a weak hurricane when it gets in the Gulf.

In my opinion, I think this is a time when we should be watching the trends, not necessarily each specific model run. The GFDL may be trending towards global guidance which favors a weaker system and more southern track. That said, I feel that Ernesto could still make a run at South Texas.



^The above is my opinion and not based on fact.

kellybell4770 wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:Major change with the 12Z GFDL. That Hurricane model no longer is suggesting a Major Hurricane in the Central Gulf and is further W than it had been suggesting as well.

forgive my ignorance but what does that mean for us?

Too soon to tell. The GFDL has been the far right outlier of the Hurricane guidance and also much stronger in suggesting a Major Hurricane. Frankly I don't have much confidence in these models until we see a better consensus, or less spread and that may be the trend to watch for in future guidance output.

I'm not buying the models right now. This thing is going to be stronger than any of them predict which will affect the track

EURO looks to be coming in farther east through 96 hours. Will post when I know for sure though.

EDIT to add it jumps it completely west along the Yucatan

Looks like to me that Mr. Ernesto has made a slight jog to the north. I think we should have a better idea with these models by 11pm tonight.

Andrew wrote:EURO looks to be coming in farther east through 96 hours. Will post when I know for sure though.

EDIT to add it jumps it completely west along the Yucatan

Just N of Belize near Cancun/Cozumel...

18Z Tracks & Intensity:

NCAR/UAlbany Experimental AHW4
http://www.hfip.org/data/index.cgi?dsKe ... eter=sfc_p



NRL/COTC Experimental COAMPS TC
http://www.hfip.org/data/index.cgi?dsKe ... eter=sfc_p

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EARLIER THIS MORNING FOUND A WEAKER
CYCLONE...BUT DURING THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER AROUND
NOON...THE PLANE REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO
1004 MB FROM 1008 MB...AND FOUND A BETTER DEFINED CIRCULATION
CENTER. SINCE THAT TIME...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED
TO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL
ESTABLISHED WHICH IS NOT COMMON FOR A CYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. T-NUMBERS WERE 3.5 AND 3.0 AT 1800 UTC...AND OBJECTIVE
NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 4.3 ON THE DVORAK SCALE DURING THE PAST HOUR.
ON THIS BASIS...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN CONSERVATIVELY BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD TO 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...
THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE PLANE COULD FIND STRONGER WINDS.

AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...I DO NOT HAVE ANY REASONS TO
FORECAST WEAKENING AS SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT...
INCLUDING THE HWRF AND THE GFDL. THE SHEAR IS LOW AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE AND ERNESTO WILL MOVE OVER AN OCEAN WITH HIGHER HEAT
CONTENT. GIVEN SUCH CONDITIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS SUGGESTED
BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.

ERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16
KNOTS...EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS
GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...RESULTING
IN ERNESTO TURNING MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
SOLUTION OF MOST THE GLOBAL MODELS...BRINGING ERNESTO OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT THIS
TIME...THE NHC FORECAST DISREGARDS THE NORTHWARD TURN INDICATED BY
THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 14.8N 70.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 15.2N 72.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 15.7N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 16.0N 79.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 16.5N 81.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 18.0N 84.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 19.5N 87.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 21.5N 90.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

The 18Z GFS clearly suggests a vertically stacked, deepening cyclone approaching the NE Mexico Gulf Coast...

Both a strong system, AND a second Mexico landfall? Not going to happen. Something has to give. I've never seen a big bad Hurricane have a way out and not take it.

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Amazing how good it looks on satellite, still, compared to how weak recon is finding it.

He's looking better by the hour. Was on a down pulse of strength about 3 hours ago, now on a big up phase.

texoz wrote:

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Amazing how good it looks on satellite, still, compared to how weak recon is finding it.

He's looking better by the hour. Was on a down pulse of strength about 3 hours ago, now on a big up phase.

That is the problem though, there is no consistency. Recon is indicating that it is still not vertically stacked.

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Globals, especially GFS and Euro, have been handling the very slow pace of strengthening well. I suspect 18Z GFS forecast may be close to what happens.

I agree. I don't think the 00z models are going to shift farther south though. I am thinking they will follow close to the eventual landfall of the 18z gfs.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 00:19Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 0:01:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°06'N 71°49'W (15.1N 71.8167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 240 miles (387 km) to the S (172°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,492m (4,895ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 59 nautical miles (68 statute miles) to the E/ESE (101°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 138° at 44kts (From the SE at ~ 50.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 114 nautical miles (131 statute miles) to the ENE (74°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,582m (5,190ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,563m (5,128ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the east quadrant at 23:21:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 13kts (~ 15.0mph) in the southwest quadrant at 0:09:30Z

Now a 1007mb storm?? I can't recall when I've seen a storm like this before. Where it looks so good and healthy on satellite, but in reality, it's just a mid level tropical storm.
Surely looks like this will be a south Mexico landfall

it will be thursday before getting in the GOM. passing over the yuctan will weaken it too. i dont see a big hurricance developing!

The storm needs to slow down in order to become vertically stacked thus stronger.

http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail2.p ... iaTypeID=1

At 370 meters per pixel, the infrared imagery of the Suomi NPP satellite provides amazing detail of the cloud structures of Tropical Storm Ernesto. The satellite passed over Ernesto on August 3, 2012 at 05:12z as the storm approached the Lesser Antilles.

huge, unlabeled version here: http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/images/2012080 ... labels.png