February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[Snowman]

Jeff, srain said he accidentally deleted your post while moving it to the february thread. what did that post say?

[Ptarmigan]

agree...once it dives down it will cut off tap the GOM/EPAC and game on.....

Many snow events in Houston happen because of a low pressure system that taps moisture from GOM and EPAC.

[radiogirltx]

Good Evening from Port Lavaca!! Found yall via Storm2k a few months back. Been lurking, but finally decided to register.

Quick question. Where can I find weather archives for my area? I seem to remember my area being unseasonably warm, with a couple a days of thick seafog a few days before the foot of snow we got 12/04....which is the same kind of weather we had prior to FROPA. I would like to find out if my memory is correct.

Welcome radiogirltx. Here is a great place to start...

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html

Thanks everyone for the warm reception. Felt good on this cold night. LOL!

After doing some quick reserach on the link yall provided, it seems my memory was pretty good.

Max temps in Port Lavaca Leading up to the Christmas eve snow.

20th- 69.8
21st- 75.2
22nd- 66.2
23rd- 44.6

While the archive did not have a data field for fog..... the dew point and temps where in line on 21st and 22nd to support fog.


So indeed the weather leading up to this system was similar to 2004! NOW, if we can just squeeze a few inches of snow out of this bad boy!

[srainhoutx]

Wow. The GFS is interesting...

[helloitsb]

Wow. The GFS is interesting...

in a good or bad way? I'm Nervous to look at it

[TexasMetBlake]

10pm Temps:

IAH: 27 (down 1 degree)
Conroe: 23: (down 2 degrees)
Huntsville: 22 (same as last hour)
College Station: 23 (down 1 degree)
Hooks: 24 (down 1 degree)

[snowman65]

we are 28 in orange.....they have dropped the forecast to near 20 tonight...interesting..

[Mr. T]

in a good or bad way? I'm Nervous to look at it

It's pretty similar to previous runs. Still light on QPF, but farther north with the expansion of snow all the way to the OK border...

[ticka1]

Wow. The GFS is interesting...

Come on don't tease us! Spill the beans!

[jabcwb2]

Wow. The GFS is interesting...

Come on don't tease us! Spill the beans!

YES! I need my beauty sleep!!!! What is it? What is it?

[TexasMetBlake]

Not much change, guys. Still shows large expanse of snow for our area. I did notice that the qpf is heavier near Brownsville.

[BiggieSmalls]

Still light on QPF, but farther north with the expansion of snow all the way to the OK border...

Perfect

[TexasMetBlake]

Did anybody notice the temp in Dallas? It is 15 degrees at 10pm!!!!!!!! They have lowered their lows to 7 overnight. WOW. If very, very loose rule of thumb is IAH's low is usually 10 degrees warmer than Dallas' low. That gives us a low of 17 tonight...which is currently our dewpoint. I wouldn't rule it out.

[snowman65]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif

[Baseballdude2915]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif

That relates to 3 inches for most of the viewing area.
I would think everyone will see something.
Banding areas could produce 6''+

[TexasMetBlake]

Houston:

NEW MODEL DATA ARRIVING THIS EVENING HAS SOUNDINGS THAT STILL SUPPORT A
FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT SOME SPOTS COULD EASILY RECEIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...AND
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE ANY KIND OF BANDING
DEVELOPS. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST UNTIL
ALL 00Z DATA ARRIVES. 42

[Alvin Girl]

Any thoughts on what kind of snow can we expect in the Alvin area / south of town?

I just scanned through the local weather forecasts - I know we still need to make it through this week, but one forecast was hinting a similar temp set up for next Tuesday.....lows in the lower 20s. Does anyone have more info on this?

[Mr. T]

Actually this run has slightly more QPF for IAH. Now has around 0.1"....

[Andrew]

Lets do this all over again in 7 days.

[TexasMetBlake]

OKC is at 10 degrees and looking for a low of -1. Tomorrow night they are looking for -5 below!!! Gotta look upstream folks to get an idea of how cold it could get here.