January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[tireman4]

Well Mr Cane....Txagwxman said no chance for us to get into party, but he did say Never say Never. LOL

[srainhoutx]

Let's look at our source regions. The afternnon Alaskan Update paints an interesting picture regarding the Upper flow and the W Coast Ridge and how that telecommunicates colder air south bound. Interesting days ahead, folks...

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
159 PM EST FRI JAN 14 2011

VALID 12Z TUE JAN 18 2011 - 12Z SAT JAN 22 2011

THE EXTREME PERSISTENT UPPER ANTICYCLONE NW OF THE STATE FINALLY
FINALLY GETS SQUEEZED WESTWARD INTO SIBERIA....WEAKENING EARLY IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST AS HEIGHT FALLS WORK SWD FROM THE POLE
INTO THE VERY AREA THAN HAD RECENTLY BEEN DOMINATED BY THE HIGH.

THE NEXT WEATHER PLAYER WILL BE A DEEP UPPER LOW SHOWN BY MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES DRIFTING FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC INTO THE FAR WRN
ALEUTIANS. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE QUITE
EXTENSIVE...SPREADING FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC ALL THE WAY INTO
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC LATE IN THE FORECAST. EAST OF THIS DEEP
TROUGH...AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD NORTHWARD OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY DAYS
6-7. ONCE ESTABLISHED...THIS MODERATE AMPLITUDE RIDGE SHOULD HOLD
STEADY OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THE NEW
2Z/14 GFS IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF IN
BUILDING A RIDGE NEAR 130W BY WEDNESDAY DAY 5. TELECONNECTIONS ON
THE HUGE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LOW FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW DECENT ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR
THIS NEW RIDGE....AND ANY IMPULSES MOVING THRU IT CAN BE EXPECTED
TO MINOR OUT. THE NEW 12Z CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE ON THE FLAT SIDE
OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS RIDGE WHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE AMPLIFIED
SIDE.

THE BLEND THAT WAS CHOSEN WAS 40% EACH OF THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF
AND ECENS AND 20% OF THE NAEFS. THIS BLEND GIVES A REASONABLE
PATTERN CONSIDERING THE CLUSTERING OF OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION GLOBAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE LOWS...WHILE SMOOTHING OUT LOW CONFIDENCE
SMALLER SCALE VARIABILITY.

FLOOD

[biggerbyte]

I'm right there with you guys. Bring on the cold and winter precip.. I'm determined to squeeze out a fun winter this year for our area. Just give us one week of freeze your nose off cold and some sort of frozen precip.. It just makes the next season worthwhile.

In the meantime... Somebody needs to call mother nature about her son, heat miser. He's not playing nice.
His time to play is Spring and Summer. Quick... Where's the rope.

Muhahaha

[tireman4]

Stop it Srain...dang it son..you are giving us hope....noo noo.....*


(* he knows I am kidding....)

[tireman4]

I'm right there with you guys. Bring on the cold and winter precip.. I'm determined to squeeze out a fun winter this year for our area. Just give us one week of freeze your nose off cold and some sort of frozen precip.. It just makes the next season worthwhile.

In the meantime... Somebody needs to call mother nature about her son, heat miser. He's not playing nice.
His time to play is Spring and Summer. Quick... Where's the rope.

Muhahaha

I swear Mr Heat Miser (Wxman57) is changing his stripes. He is ushering in this cold. Maybe he is a double agent or channeling Dan and his snow gun!!!

[srainhoutx]

As I said. Interesting days ahead...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
215 PM EST FRI JAN 14 2011

VALID 12Z MON JAN 17 2011 - 12Z FRI JAN 21 2011

...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW QUITE AN INTERESTING FLOW PATTERN
OVER NOAM OVER THE NEXT WEEK...

GUIDANCE IN A LARGER SENSE AGREES THAT A COOLING/UNSETTLING AND
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STEADILY PROGRESS FROM THE
EAST-CENTRAL US TO WRN ATLANTIC TUE-THU. IN THIS FLOW EMBEDDED
SYSTEM AND STREAM PHASING ISSUES THOUGH INTRODUCE INCREASED
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AT LOWER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW
DEVELOPMENTS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOCUS. SOME OF THIS UNCERTAINTY
SEEMS RELATED TO THE LOW LEVEL RESPONSE TO HOW POTENT LEAD
ENERGIES DIGGING OUT FROM THE WRN US INTO THE BASE OF THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH VERIFIES ACROSS THE US SRN TIER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE 00 UTC GFS/CANADIAN AND
THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. A SOLUTION ALOFT ON THE MORE
AMPLIFIED PORTION OF THE FULL SOLUTION ENVELOPE PROVIDED BY
GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
AT LOWER LEVELS THE 06 UTC GFS DID SUPPORT A MORE DEFINED SURFACE
WAVE AND THE 12 UTC GFS HAS NOW TRENDED TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM. HPC PROGS MAINTAIN REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH A LOW
TRACK/CYCLOGENESIS OVER/OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC THEN NEW ENG
TUE/WED...ALBEIT WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY CONSIDERING RECENT
GUIDANCE SENSITIVITY INCLUDING THE 12 UTC ECMWF THAT IS NOW
SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED/DEVELOPED THIS SYSTEM.

UPSTREAM...THE 00/12 UTC ECMWF/UKMET OFFER A STRONGER SOLUTION
THAN THE 00/06/12 UTC GFS AND CANADIAN WITH RE-EMERGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH ENERGY ALOFT SLATED TO DIG INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL US
MIDWEEK AND ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL NRN TIER OF THE US INTO
THU/FRI THAT WOULD FAVOR QUITE AN ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL SURGE OF
BITTER COLD AIR INTO MUCH OF THE EAST-CENTRAL US AT THAT TIME.

ALSO...THE 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 00 UTC
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN MEANWHILE DEPCIT MUCH SHARPER DIGGING OF
TROUGH ENERGIES FARTHER BACK DOWN THROUGH THE US WEST COAST. THIS
LEADS TO CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF SRN CA
BY DAYS 5-7 WED-FRI COMPARED TO MUCH BROADER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL STATES IN
RECENT GFS/CANADIAN MODEL AND ENSEMBLE RUNS. THE 12 UTC GFS
THOUGH HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN PRIOR 00/06 UTC
RUNS BUT THE 12 UTC ECMWF/UKMET HAVE TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THEIR PRIOR RUNS...SEEMINGLY ALL WORKING SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO A MORE
CONCENSUS SOLUTION AT THIS POINT.

AS PER THESE TWO GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES HIGHLIGHTED JUST ABOVE...A
DEEPLY AMPLIFIED LOW/TROUGH ANCHORING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC
NEXT WEEK DOES HAVE QUITE A BIT OF JET ENERGY RUNNING UNDERNEATH
TO VARIOUS DEGREES. THIS NONETHELESS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO FAVOR
MAINTAINING FOR A LONGER PERIOD A GREATER DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
AMPLITUDE ON THE HIGHER SPECTRUM OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS
ACROSS THE NERN PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD THEN LEAD TO AN INCREASED
OPPORTUNITY FOR AT LEAST REASONABLY VIGOROUS DOWNSTREAM
DIGGING/AMPLITUDE WITH BOTH THE WRN US AND N-CENTRAL US SYSTEMS
MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERING THIS...BUT WITH STILL AMPLE
FORECAST SPREAD WITHIN ALL GUIDANCE...THE PRELIM HPC SOLUTION WAS
PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A NEAR EVEN BLEND OF THE QUITE AMPLIFIED 00
UTC ECMWF AND A SOMEWHAT LESS ROBUST 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
FINAL HPC GUIDANCE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY STRENGTH OVER THE
N-CENTRAL US...BUT DID TREND TOWARD A SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE
CA/SW US SYSTEM AFTER CONSIDERATION OF LATEST 12 UTC MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE GUDIANCE.

SCHICHTEL

[wxman57]

My stripes are the same, I just call it as I see it (the weather). As for next week, the Euro does suggest the possibility of a Southern Plains ice storm around next Thu/Fri. Shallow layer of Arctic air with a disturbance moving across. IF it was to verify, then central to NE Texas up through Oklahoma and eastward may be in for a big freezing rain event. It doesn't indicate any freezing rain for Houston, however. Just cold rain.

Canadian and GFS don't see anything of interest next Thu/Fri. Is the Euro right this time? Who knows? Both the Euro and GFS were wrong with this week's nor'easter. The Canadian nailed it. Could be the Canadian is right again, and all we'll see is a moderate front that drops our lows into the lower 30s for a day or two.

Just something to keep an eye on, as there is now cold air in NW Canada, which wasn't there last week.

[harpman]

LOL! ...and the thread........STOPS.....

[srainhoutx]

Nah. We're just getting started. As I said the other day, this thread will bust 200 pages+ in no time. Stepping down...

[tireman4]

Srain...you are just evil sir. Just evil. Post the morsels and we come running. Aiiggghhhh...I cannot stop looking at this...LOL

[redneckweather]

Just something to keep an eye on, as there is now cold air in NW Canada, which wasn't there last week.

Yep.

[srainhoutx]

Little doubt via the 12Z Euro Ensembles where all the cold air is settling (N America on left of images and Eurasia on the right of images) from a N Hemisphere view.

[srainhoutx]

Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let's not forget that the weekend is looking damp. Some heavy rainfall could well be ahead for Sunday as a Coastal Low/trough forms as well as an approaching short wave...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
311 PM CST FRI JAN 14 2011

.DISCUSSION...
COASTAL TROF SETTING UP WITH LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE EXTENDING INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE STREAMING NWD INTO CNTL TX. EXPECT SOME DZ/-RA
TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING JUST WEST OF THE
AREA AS LLVLS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN. AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
THRU THE DAY SAT AND EXPAND INTO NRN PARTS OF SE TX AS IT FLOWS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE H5 RIDGE SITUATED OFFSHORE THE TX/LA
COAST. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ALONG THE SRN NV/AZ/MEXICO BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH TONIGHT AND SAT THEN EJECT ACROSS S TX ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL COVERAGE TO FURTHER EXPAND EWD IN COVERAGE
IN RESPONSE TO ENHANCED LARGE SCALE LIFT AND THE H85 RIDGE MOVING
FURTHER TO THE E. COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON SUNDAY
AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT. MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING A SFC
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL TROF THEN MOVING ENE THRU SE TX.
POSITION/TIMING OF THE FEATURE IS CURRENTLY NOT NAILED DOWN BUT APPEARS
GREATEST THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG & NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 59. RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 TROF
AXIS EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN FCST TEMPS BEYOND MON AND SUSPECT THERE COULD BE
SOME SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES IN THE DAYS TO COME. EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO SE TX SOMETIME TUE. ECMWF/GFS ARE ABOUT 12
HOURS APART IN TIMING AND ALSO VARY IN THE SWD EXTENT IT GOES.
RETURN FLOW QUICKLY FOLLOWS 12-18 HOURS LATER (BUT AGAIN TIMING IS
AN ISSUE). STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THURS MORNING (GFS) OR
THURS NIGHT (ECMWF). QUALITY & TIME OF RETURN FLOW WILL DETERMINE
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THIS FRONT. FOR NOW...SPLIT THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS AND WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS REFINE AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

[harpman]

The current GFS?

[srainhoutx]

The current GFS?

Nothing but a tropical storm moving into S TX/NE MX...

[C2G]

srain's goal is to instigate conversations on this site, which he does a great job.
Butttttt, if you'll look back at one of his post he says "wintry weather for parts of Texas".
I did not read southeast Texas, nor am I trying to since I loathe winter.
As most of you know Texas is a gigantic state, so I really don't get overly excited with the mention of wintry weather in Texas.
That could be the panhandle area, which is a long ways from southeast Texas.
Sure I like to see a snowflake or two, but around here we usually get cloudy and miserable weather, not snow, barring the 2004-2008-2009 miracles/anomalies.
When wxman57 jumps on board the snow for southeast Texas bandwagon I start to believe.
Until then I'll enjoy all this "Wish-casting".

[Andrew]

srain's goal is to instigate conversations on this site, which he does a great job.
Butttttt, if you'll look back at one of his post he says "wintry weather for parts of Texas".
I did not read southeast Texas, nor am I trying to since I loathe winter.
As most of you know Texas is a gigantic state, so I really don't get overly excited with the mention of wintry weather in Texas.
That could be the panhandle area, which is a long ways from southeast Texas.
Sure I like to see a snowflake or two, but around here we usually get cloudy and miserable weather, not snow, barring the 2004-2008-2009 miracles/anomalies.
When wxman57 jumps on board the snow for southeast Texas bandwagon I start to believe.
Until then I'll enjoy all this "Wish-casting".

I really don't think anyone is wishcasting. Members on here are just posting their thoughts and feelings towards weather. I also haven't seen anyone posting that SE Texas was going to receive wintry weather. I have only seen posts of the possibility of some colder weather around Jan 20th. As for srain all he is doing is posting models, his thoughts, and feelings just like anyone else. If you don't want us to "wishcast" what should we talk about? I personally think everyone on here has done a wonderful job and has continued to enhance their weather knowledge.

[tireman4]

Agreed 100 percent with Andrew. Those of us who are long time oldies here used to kid with each other so much. Dan took so much ribbing from us it was hilarious...

[wxman666]

Agreed 100 percent with Andrew. Those of us who are long time oldies here used to kid with each other so much. Dan took so much ribbing from us it was hilarious...

I miss Dan.

[Katdaddy]

Yep Tireman we are the oldies. I set back and watch the discussions until we have a definite potential of a significant weather event. I remember my younger days when I would live and die by model runs especially regarding snow possibilites. Many disappointments such as 1983 and 1985......then comes a 2004 Christmas Eve snowfall. That made up for all Winter weather disappointments for 30 years. Consistent models runs across multiple models for a week's period begin to peak my interests.