January 2025

[Brazoriatx979]

This may come down to a models be damnned type thing to a straight up now casting event lol
Wtf am I awake? I gotta go to work at 4 am lol

[biggerbyte]

This may come down to a models be damnned type thing to a straight up now casting event lol
Wtf am I awake? I gotta go to work at 4 am lol

We have had to nowcast many times over the years. I've learned to just go with it. I'm concerned about ice and power outages.

[Pas_Bon]

We have had the ability to track a hurricane and winter storm within several months of each other. Insanity, this is. Bring it. Hold the ice.

[Tx2005]

I really really really hope we avoid ice and the related power outages, especially if things will be a standstill until Thursday/Friday like some are concerned about.

[Stratton20]

Also one big important thing to note is that if we have power outages, it will be more of a local issue ( centerpoint) than the main grid ( ercot) because this einter storm wont be impacting the entire state with snow/ ice, this winter storm is confined from central texas to se texas and maybe south texas, the grid itself shouldnt have any real problems

[biggerbyte]

GFS and CMC shows ice. Not all do. Saturday, and especially Sundays outlook could not come any quicker.

[Tx2005]

Also one big important thing to note is that if we have power outages, it will be more of a local issue ( centerpoint) than the main grid ( ercot) because this einter storm wont be impacting the entire state with snow/ ice, this winter storm is confined from central texas to se texas and maybe south texas, the grid itself shouldnt have any real problems

That's a good thing obviously, because that 2021 power outage issue was a nightmare.

With that said, if ice becomes a big enough issue locally, I don't imagine we will be seeing power restored until things thaw out (hopefully on Wednesday vs Thursday/Friday).

[biggerbyte]

It's worth noting that the Euro and ICON still show snow.

[Brazoriatx979]

Bur isn't the snow moving more towards Louisiana

[Brazoriatx979]

Beaumont is already under a winter storm watch. Wonder when hou/gave will pull it for us? Probably the last minute like they always do

[Tx2005]

I’m just going to assume this is an ice storm at this point. I sure was hoping we could avoid this mess, but it is what it is.

[Dls2010r]

All the models are showing ice then snow this morning.

[biggerbyte]

Beaumont is already under a winter storm watch. Wonder when hou/gave will pull it for us? Probably the last minute like they always do

At some point. You are right about the crazy delays.

[Brazoriatx979]

will see what the mesoscales say today and go from there. But id prepare freezing rain first then maybe snow possibly afterwards if you are south of I-10

[Brazoriatx979]

From Jeff...

1-18-25

Prolonged period of cold weather including hard freezes likely next week…cold weather advisory in effect for early Sunday.

Winter storm likely late Monday into late Tuesday

Significant travel disruption with near impossible travel on Tuesday

Cold front will move through the area this morning followed by increasingly colder conditions into Sunday and next week. Clearing skies will help to offset some of the post frontal cooling today followed by a more substantial drop in the temperatures tonight into Sunday. Freezing line will enter the area tonight and make it down toward the north and western sides of the metro area Sunday morning and when combined with gusty northerly winds of 15-25mph wind chills will fall into the 10’s and 20’s for much of the area. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the expected low wind chill values on Sunday morning.

More significant freeze is likely Monday AM with lows into the 20’s for much of the area and into the low 20’s north of HWY 105 with similar lows on Tuesday AM. Potentially the coldest night will be Wednesday morning with possible ice/snow cover and clearing skies resulting in maximum cooling conditions. Guidance continues to resolve this period a bit better with a trending down of low temperatures. Possible much of the area could fall into the upper 10’s with the beaches into the mid 20’s on Wednesday AM.

Other item to consider is the sub-freezing duration of temperatures. Much of the area looks to fall below freezing Monday early evening and not rise above freezing until Wednesday afternoon and even then it may only be a few degrees above freezing for a few hours. This results in sub-freezing duration of potentially 36-45 hours over much of the area and possibly longer.

Monday AM Forecasted Low Temperatures:

North of HWY 105: 22-26
North of I-10: 25-29
Houston metro (inside Beltway): 27-29
Coastal Counties: 28-30
Beaches/Galveston: 31-33

Tuesday AM Forecasted Low Temperatures:

North of HWY 105: 22-26
North of I-10: 26-30
Houston metro (inside Beltway): 27-29
Coastal Counties: 28-30
Beaches/Galveston: 30-32

Wednesday AM Forecasted Low Temperatures:

North of HWY 105: 17-20
North of I-10: 18-21
Houston metro (inside Beltway): 19-21
Coastal Counties: 19-24
Beaches/Galveston: 30-32

Maximum preparations and precautions for sub-freezing conditions for many hours should be completed this weekend. Failure to complete proper precautions may result in significant damage to vegetation and infrastructure.

Protect sensitive vegetation.
Protect any exposed outdoor pipes (sprinkler systems should be shut off and properly drained). Pipes in attics and along exterior walls of structures could freeze at these levels.
Prepare proper shelter and warmth for animals and livestock and make sure water sources are not frozen.
Persons should limit outside exposure to a minimum.

Winter Precipitation:

Once the cold air is in place on Monday an upper level trough will move across the state of Texas late Monday through the day on Tuesday. This feature will force a surface low along the lower Texas coast that will help to draw moisture northward into the cold air mass. Clouds will quickly increase from south to north Monday followed by the development of precipitation late Monday afternoon into the evening hours. The GFS model is slightly warmer at the surface and aloft compared to the ECMWF model resulting in more freezing rain/sleet on the GFS and more snow on the ECMWF. This system is starting to come into the range of our more reliable high resolution models and this should help with both P-type challenges and accumulations over the next 24 hours. Will favor a more snow profile along and north of I-10 with the potential for a mixture of freezing rain/sleet/snow south of I-10. Guidance continues to suggest the potential for mesoscale banding within the precipitation shield that can locally result in much higher totals of precipitation. This has occurred in recent snow events locally in 2004, 2008 and 2009.

Snow accumulations of 1-3 inches is possible along and north of I-10 with locally higher amounts under banding features…lower amounts south of I-10 to the coast with the probabilities of .10 or greater snow now 70-85% for much of the area. Probabilities for .01 or greater ice has increased some south of I-10 into the 35-50% range.

I will continue to caution that the start of this winter weather event is still 72 hours away and changes in the P-type and accumulations are almost certain over that period.

Impacts:

Given surface temperatures will be well below freezing while the precipitation is falling…significant travel impacts can be expected initially on elevated surface and eventually surface streets. Travel disruption late Monday into early Wednesday will be significant and at times potentially impossible over the area. Recovery of area roadways…especially elevated surfaces may be slow depending on the amount of accumulation…it is possible the area is still dealing with travel issues into Thursday morning.

Aviation will be heavily impacted with expected significant delays and cancellations Monday night into Tuesday night. De-icing of aircraft will be required and accumulations on runways is likely.

[Brazoriatx979]

Judging by this the only people who would see all snow would be College station, Livingston and Huntsville..but I'm sure it will change tonight when the higher end mesoscale models start rolling in

[Brazoriatx979]

Pow

[txsnowmaker]

NWS still showing heart of Houston with 3.4 inches of snow.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... =0&dd=&bw=

Also heartened to see forecast discussion this morning talking about only a “glaze of ice” possible south of I-10.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[jasons2k]

The initial front has been long advertised as coming through here Midday Saturday. When I woke up the wind was already blowing out of the north.

[DoctorMu]

The cold front blew through here just after midnight ; overperforming as expected. Nothing really has changed much. Snow above I-10. Mix below I-10.