January 2025

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Private Pyle is clearing his throat again.
Cpv17
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I’m not worried about it. Nothing really changed IMO.
Cromagnum
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Tx2005 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:43 pm I'm pretty ignorant about the weather overall. So I'm assuming this "warm nose" everybody is referencing means this could end being an ice storm vs snow?
What they mean is warmer air at higher levels. The entire column of air has to be cold for snow to happen. A small warm layer could cause sleet or graupel, but a larger warm nose could cause rain which freezes when it gets closer to the ground.
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 8:33 pm Cpv17 david paul just said not only tuesday but plan on staying home wednesday , looks likes hes not buying much of a warm up on wednesday either
Looking pretty Euro.
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snowman65
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DoctorMu wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:58 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 8:33 pm Cpv17 david paul just said not only tuesday but plan on staying home wednesday , looks likes hes not buying much of a warm up on wednesday either
Looking pretty Euro.
not going down without a fight...
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DoctorMu
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Gird yer loins...
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biggerbyte
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It's all kinda sad. Im not sure this brand of weather forecasting is ever going to get better.
Stratton20
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00z Euro caved to the GFS, more of a mix now, still 4-6 inches of snow, but now thats on top of an inch of sleet and .25 of ice, that would be an absolute mess, i guarantee wed be below freeing tuesday and all of wednesday with that
txsnowmaker
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Herzog at 13 sounding a lot more measured, and that was before the new Euro. Damn.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1DA9ba ... tid=WC7FNe
biggerbyte
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:34 pm 00z Euro caved to the GFS, more of a mix now, still 4-6 inches of snow, but now thats on top of an inch of sleet and .25 of ice, that would be an absolute mess, i guarantee wed be below freeing tuesday and all of wednesday with that
So much for 6 to 12 inches of snow. LOL I think all knew that was not going to happen. Not in this area.
Stormlover2020
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You must be a lefty!! Always whiny
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captainbarbossa19
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biggerbyte wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:38 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:34 pm 00z Euro caved to the GFS, more of a mix now, still 4-6 inches of snow, but now thats on top of an inch of sleet and .25 of ice, that would be an absolute mess, i guarantee wed be below freeing tuesday and all of wednesday with that
So much for 6 to 12 inches of snow. LOL I think all knew that was not going to happen. Not in this area.
There is still a lot of uncertainty. Euro has around 10 inches of snow in Liberty County. It all depends on the low track and where heavy bands of snow set up now.
txsnowmaker
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Euro not so bad at all if you want snow in Houston. I’d feel much better if the Euro and Icon weren’t so far out of step with Canadian and GFS. My understanding is that the Euro busted pretty badly in terms of overstating snowfall with the most recent front.
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captainbarbossa19
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Euro is trending a lot colder now for Wednesday so I am really doubting that travel will be possible until Thursday or Friday even at the earliest.
Stratton20
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captainbarbossa19 yeah if we get several inches of snow on top of sleet and ice, i dont see us making it to freezing on wednesday either, tv mets have highs in the mid 40’s on wednesday, im seriously doubtful of thag
Cpv17
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Things are really trending for Louisiana. More moisture there.
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captainbarbossa19
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:55 pm captainbarbossa19 yeah if we get several inches of snow on top of sleet and ice, i dont see us making it to freezing on wednesday either, tv mets have highs in the mid 40’s on wednesday, im seriously doubtful of thag
Yeah I don't know how mid-40s are going to happen unless we just have sleet, but even then the amount will be enough to increase surface albedo and greatly chill the ground causing it to remain colder. If several inches of snow fall, it won't be hard for it to struggle to hit freezing at all.
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sambucol
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IMHO, it seems like the model runs change in the overnight computations, then swing back to more in line during the morning/daytime runs.
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DoctorMu
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captainbarbossa19 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:52 pm Euro is trending a lot colder now for Wednesday so I am really doubting that travel will be possible until Thursday or Friday even at the earliest.
A timing thing. That's the easterly trend I saw previously.

We'll see if it is really a trend or there's a bounceback.
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DoctorMu
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ICON has come in stronger.
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