January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[wxman57]

As much as it pains me to have to admit this - I did change the title of this thread to reflect a possible 2nd Arctic air outbreak next week. As much as I'd like to believe the GFS, the Canadian may be onto something with respect to a bigger southward surge of Arctic air around the 19th. Stay tuned...

[srainhoutx]

As much as it pains me to have to admit this - I did change the title of this thread to reflect a possible 2nd Arctic air outbreak next week. As much as I'd like to believe the GFS, the Canadian may be onto something with respect to a bigger southward surge of Arctic air around the 19th. Stay tuned...

I knew you would come around to your senses. The spread via the Euro and GFS ensembles are as wide as one would ever see.

[Portastorm]

As much as it pains me to have to admit this - I did change the title of this thread to reflect a possible 2nd Arctic air outbreak next week. As much as I'd like to believe the GFS, the Canadian may be onto something with respect to a bigger southward surge of Arctic air around the 19th. Stay tuned...

To whoever posted this ... who are you and what have you done with Wxman57?

[biggerbyte]

With very low humidity and calm winds, yet cloudy skies, I would suggest upper twenties to low thirties scattered about the area.
Some mid. thirties for folks that are not out in the boonies like me.

[Ptarmigan]

As much as it pains me to have to admit this - I did change the title of this thread to reflect a possible 2nd Arctic air outbreak next week. As much as I'd like to believe the GFS, the Canadian may be onto something with respect to a bigger southward surge of Arctic air around the 19th. Stay tuned...

Code: Select all

FIELD  TEMPERATURE   DEW POINT       TEMPERATURE    TEMPERATURE   
LEVEL      2M             2M           850 MB         500 MB 
UNITS      DEGC            DEGC          DEGC           DEGC 
 HR
+  0.     13.2           12.3            9.7           -9.7
+ 12.      9.8            7.6           10.0          -11.3
+ 24.      5.7            4.0            8.6          -12.7
+ 36.      5.6            1.7            6.6          -13.1
+ 48.      4.1           -0.5            5.8          -13.6
+ 60.      6.8            0.7            7.2          -13.0
+ 72.      7.0            2.1            7.3          -13.7
+ 84.      9.4            7.0            7.9          -14.9
+ 96.      8.7            6.6            8.6          -15.8
+108.     12.0           10.6           10.9          -14.4
+120.     17.4           17.2           11.9          -14.5
+132.     19.0           18.5           12.8          -13.6
+144.     15.6           15.2           12.0          -12.8
+156.      8.2            6.1           10.5          -12.6
+168.      3.6            1.5            9.8          -14.1
+180.      8.5            5.3            9.6          -14.6
+192.      4.6            2.9            9.0          -16.6

The 1200Z says no freeze. Models keep changing.

[biggerbyte]

Also, the dewpoint right now in my area is 15. Although that will likely come up, as will the humidity a tad overnight, even with cloudy skies, folks away from the city, and maybe away the airport, should watch out for a freeze tonight. The NWS is advertising low twenties. Unless skies clear, and dewpoints stay real low, I don't get that at all. Maybe they are seeing something I am not. They have not wavered all day. Bloody strange, if you ask me.

[C2G]

Wxman57, it pains my wallet in paying those gigantic heating bills every time mother nature pulls a cruel trick on us via an Arctic outbreak.
Let us pray this possible surge near the 20th will be the last of this season.
I'm looking forward to an early spring.

[wxman57]

As much as it pains me to have to admit this - I did change the title of this thread to reflect a possible 2nd Arctic air outbreak next week. As much as I'd like to believe the GFS, the Canadian may be onto something with respect to a bigger southward surge of Arctic air around the 19th. Stay tuned...

The 1200Z says no freeze. Models keep changing.

The 12Z deterministic forecast from the GFS doesn't see it, but the GFS may have the wrong 500mb pattern for next week. So the GFS extended 2m temp predictions may be out to lunch.

[Andrew]

It's pretty cold in Canada




It's really cold

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=PFYU

[txsnowmaker]

As much as it pains me to have to admit this - I did change the title of this thread to reflect a possible 2nd Arctic air outbreak next week. As much as I'd like to believe the GFS, the Canadian may be onto something with respect to a bigger southward surge of Arctic air around the 19th. Stay tuned...

I knew you would come around to your senses. The spread via the Euro and GFS ensembles are as wide as one would ever see.

I will be flying from DC back to Houston on the 21st. Do either the Euro or Canadian give any signs that travel could be an issue that day?

[Ptarmigan]

The 12Z deterministic forecast from the GFS doesn't see it, but the GFS may have the wrong 500mb pattern for next week. So the GFS extended 2m temp predictions may be out to lunch.

The temperature map of Canada that Andrew posted makes me think there will be another freeze next week.

[TexasMetBlake]

[Andrew]

http://data.hamweather.net/contours/wx4 ... points.png

So what do you think Candy Cane? You see another blast coming?

[TexasMetBlake]

I don't really see anything on the gfs of concern. I'm about to look at the Euro and Canadian.

Just *glanced* at the CMC and Euro and I don't see anything of great concern yet. Wxman, what am I missing? If YOU of all people changed the title, you must have some sort of confidence in SOMETHING in the next 7-10 days.

[srainhoutx]

Dodge City offers a 'hint'...

THE FLOW LOOKS TO BUCKLE DURING WEEK TWO AS THE SW TROUGH BEGINS TO
SLIDE EAST. THIS PRODUCES A LARGER MERIDIONAL COMPONENT IN THE UPPER
FLOW WHICH SHOULD DRIVE THE COLD AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL
STICK WITH THE COOLING TREND FOR WEEK 2.

[tireman4]

Wxman57:

As much as it pains me to have to admit this - I did change the title of this thread to reflect a possible 2nd Arctic air outbreak next week. As much as I'd like to believe the GFS, the Canadian may be onto something with respect to a bigger southward surge of Arctic air around the 19th. Stay tuned...

He has changed. He has done it. He is Mr Cold Miser....Woo Hooo.......!!! I gotta tell Porta.....!!!

[biggerbyte]

Hahaha


Wiping runny nose with arm as he says....

Ur Phunny

The cold is coming again. Verification comes on Sunday.

[redneckweather]

Come again wxman? Kind of made me sit up in my chair when I read that from YOU. Especially since you weren't gung ho on this arctic front last week and you were correct. Hmmm, this is too much for my brain to handle.

[Andrew]

Remember everyone this doesn't exactly mean wxman is predicting this to happen. I think he is just throwing that out there and with the cold air already building in Canada I can see why he would have more confidence then last time.

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z’s are running. That model continues to advertize some light moisture across the Hill Country. We will see. The weekend is looking wet as well. I suspect the night crew will be active, yet again…