EX TC Don- Inland near Baffin Bay "Don Is Dead"

[jgreak]

Really anxious to hear what wxman thinks at this point...

[srainhoutx]

I'd take some time to read the afternoon forecast discussion from HGX before dismissing any lack of impacts locally...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
355 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

...TROPICAL STORM DON FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...

.DISCUSSION...
NHC HAS DECLARED THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE JUST NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN HAS STRENGTHENED TO TROPICAL STORM DON. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM WOULD RESULT IN IMPACTS ACROSS SE TX IN THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

HIGHLY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SE ZONES (PWS 2.1-2.3
INCHES) WHILE SOME DRYING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN ZONES (PWS
DOWN TO 1.7 INCHES). CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS SO FAR BEEN RATHER
SPARSE EXCEPT OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. ONGOING ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS
FORECAST SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WHERE PWS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
2.1-2.3 INCHES. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNCAPPED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING RESULTING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL STORM MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
AREAS THURSDAY AFTN...AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF SE TX RESULTING
IN A TEMPORARY LULL IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HAVE KEPT MOST OF
THE CWA DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH PERSISTENCE FOR
TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM DON WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS SE
TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE STORM FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL JUST WEST OF THE CWA AS A TROPICAL STORM...THE MAIN
IMPACTS WOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
SEVERAL FACTORS MAY HELP MITIGATE THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR INLAND
FLOODING: THE SMALLER AREAL SIZE OF THE STORM...THE STEADY
FORWARD SPEED...AND OF COURSE THE ONGOING EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT.
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE WESTERN
COASTAL AREAS...ALONG WITH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND BAYS. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. PERSONS ACROSS SE TX SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION FROM NHC.

HAVE GENERALLY INCREASED POPS AND CLOUD COVER AND LOWERED
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.

TROPICAL STORM DON WILL MOVE QUICKLY INLAND AFTER LANDFALL AND
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION COULD PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS
TEXAS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. BASED ON MODEL CONSISTENCY AND FORECAST 850 MB
TEMPS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR OF THIS
VERY HOT SUMMER ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK. EVEN THE CONSERVATIVE MEXMOS
IS FORECASTING HIGHS CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES IN HOUSTON. HAVE BUMPED
UP TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. KEPT 20 POPS GOING EACH DAY FOR
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

[jgreak]

Latest from Mr. Lindner:

Discussion:
Tropical wave now in the SE Gulf of Mexico has organized enough to be declared a tropical cyclone and at 400pm advisories have been initiated. Recon aircraft have reported flight level winds of 47mph with gust to 52mph in the heavy convection on the southern side of the system. Reduction to the surface gives wind speeds strong enough to declare the system a tropical storm. Surface pressure recorded was 1001mb per a dropsonde. Per recon TS force winds only extend outward 45 miles from the center….this is a small system, so where it makes landfall is extremely important from an impact point of view.

Track:
Since this morning models have become more in line with a solution aiming at the middle TX coast around Matagorda Bay. 12Z model runs go as follows: HWRF near Matagorda Bay, GFS east side of Matagorda Bay, GFDL near Galveston, and EURO south of Corpus. Multi model consensus is just west of Port O Connor and so there is growing confidence of a landfall near/along the middle TX/coastal bend part of the TX coast. Still some uncertainty in the exact track as much depends on the high to the NE of TX and how much this high break down possibly allowing a more NW turn as the system nears the coast. Track looks very similar to Claudette 2003. Official track forecast has the center making landfall near Port O Connor around midnight Friday night.

Intensity:
Conditions over the Gulf of Mexico will be favorable for intensification and it appears the system will approach hurricane intensity at landfall. Latest HWRF run peaks the system as a 70kt hurricane prior to landfall and this is in line with the SHIPS intensity model also showing a hurricane, while the GFS and GFDL show little intensification. Small system such as this one can spin up very quickly if deep thunderstorms develop over their inner core and can undergo rapid intensification (Humberto 2007 comes to mind). Given at least 36 hours over the warm Gulf under fairly favorable conditions I would not rule out rapid intensification especially as the system nears the coast on Friday. Guidance shows a 19% chance of a 25kt increase in wind speed in the next 48 hours or 1.5 times what would normally be expected.

Impacts:
Will keep impacts fairly general for now and firm them up with greater detail on Thursday morning or later this evening once warnings/watches are issued. Again this is NOT forecast to be a large hurricane (like IKE), but a small system similar to Humberto so the impacts will be local to the area within about 50-60 miles of the center.

Rainfall:
An average of 3-5 inches can be expected along and about 80 miles to the east of the landfall area with isolated amounts of 6 inches possible. While the area is suffering from exceptional drought, rainfall of this magnitude in a short period of time (12-24 hours) may result in significant run off and rises on area watersheds.

Wind:
Strong damaging winds of 60-75mph with gust to near 80mph will be possible near and within about 40 miles of where the center crosses the coast. This puts the core of strong winds across the Matagorda Bay region south to near Rockport Friday night. Tropical Storm force winds will likely onset within the next 50 hours between Matagorda County and Aransas County. There remains some uncertainty with the forecast track and should the track shift to the north or the south the wind forecast will need to be updated.

Storm Surge:
Due to the small size of this system storm surge should be lower than 5 feet along the TX coast with the greatest surge near and just to the right (east) of where the center crosses the coast. Tides will run 1-3 feet above normal well to the east of the track due to wave run up including much of the upper TX coast. Tides of this level should not cause significant coastal flooding, but some overwash will be possible at times of high tide along the barrier islands. Storm surge values near the point of landfall may reach up to 3-4 feet (near or within Matagorda Bay)

Actions:
Residents along the middle and upper TX coast should review their hurricane plans and should be prepared to enact these plans first thing Thursday morning as we will be within 48 hours of the landfall of TS force winds by early Thursday.

For locations around Matagorda Bay (Calhoun, Jackson, Matagorda, Aransas counties):

Windows in structures along the coast (beachfront) should be covered and outside objects secured. Boats should be moored or removed to prevent damage.

Main focus should be on heavy rainfall and possible strong winds which may bring down trees and power poles near where the center moves ashore causing widespread power outages. Lower end category 1 winds of 75-80mph can cause minor roof and window damage and similar damage to that of hurricane Claudette in 2003 in the same region will be possible.

Will likely send another update late this evening as hurricane/TS watches/warnings will likely be issued at this time.

[singlemom]

In terms of 18Z models, I'm assuming that it's "flip flop model" time, since the models seem to be pointed toward the Mexico border again?

I'd be careful re: track models at this point. The spread seems to be in 2 camps. One for the Middle TX Coast and the other further S near Brownsville. New data from the Hurricane Hunters and additional high altitude NOAA aircraft will begin to be injested into guidance tonight and tomorrow.

You're right again, 'srain. (Pulls out "Weather Forum Manual" and turns to Chapter 1: "Put no faith in model guidance until you're close to the event.....exhibit patience."]

[jasons2k]

A professional met who goes by 'Cheeznado' on another forum went Bret-99 territory, strong TS or minimal hurricane, and I'd tend, in my unofficial and amateur way, think that is probably the smart money.

Actually, almost every pro-met on that site is consitently calling for this to be steered by the deeper easterly flow into the Lower (not mid-upper) TX coast, south of CRP.

Bret-99 is lower Texas (between CRP and BRO). Actually.

Really? It was?? That's news to me! I thought there was some *other* Bret that made landfall in Galveston. /sarcasm

Seriously...FWIW I was agreeing with you that not only was Cheeznado was calling for the Lower TX Coast...so was pretty much every other Pro met on said site. Maybe that got lost in translation, so my apologies.

[Paul]

TX/LA to CC is where I peg this....I would not discount a cat 1 or cat 2 somewhere in between....Just my 2 cents....

[djmike]

TX/LA to CC is where I peg this....I would not discount a cat 1 or cat 2 somewhere in between....Just my 2 cents....

Curious as to why you feel as far north TX/LA? I'd love for this to move a little further northward up the coast!

[djmike]

I have a feeling this will be a more upper TX coast storm! JMO... I think ALL of TX is STILL at play here.

[ticka1]

Here is another station's met's take on TS Don....

http://www.click2houston.com/weather/28 ... etail.html

who knows...going to be a 48 hours until landfall.

I don't discount the landfall south of corpus nor do I discount the one near Houston.....its really too soon and NO model conscensos.

[jeff]

A professional met who goes by 'Cheeznado' on another forum went Bret-99 territory, strong TS or minimal hurricane, and I'd tend, in my unofficial and amateur way, think that is probably the smart money.

Actually, almost every pro-met on that site is consitently calling for this to be steered by the deeper easterly flow into the Lower (not mid-upper) TX coast, south of CRP.

Bret-99 is lower Texas (between CRP and BRO). Actually.

I would say the mid coast...Corpus to Matagorda Bay. Could even go as far north as Matagorda County. Storms tend to bump the ridge more than the models think...looks a lot like 2003's Claudette, maybe a bit stronger at landfall.

[jeff]

[
A professional met who goes by 'Cheeznado' on another forum went Bret-99 territory, strong TS or minimal hurricane, and I'd tend, in my unofficial and amateur way, think that is probably the smart money.

I would say the mid coast...Corpus to Matagorda Bay. Could even go as far north as Matagorda County. Storms tend to bump the ridge more than the models think...looks a lot like 2003's Claudette, maybe a bit stronger at landfall.

[/quote]

Remember this one is going to be fairly small...so where it hits is more important than usual. Little area will get a fairly good hit however.

[wxman57]

I would say the mid coast...Corpus to Matagorda Bay. Could even go as far north as Matagorda County. Storms tend to bump the ridge more than the models think...looks a lot like 2003's Claudette, maybe a bit stronger at landfall.

I agree, Jeff. CRP to Matagorda. Could be 75-80 kts at landfall. Small storm, not too much of a storm surge.

[perk]

I live in Fort Bend county Richmond/Rosenberg area, if it comes in around Matagorda i think i will get some much needed rain.

[djmike]

Ok, question...why is there such a difference/split in models for the 8pm on these two sites? One has alot of models and the other has just a couple...please explain why some show and some dont. Which are the most reliable for this particular system? Thanks

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realti ... _early.png

and

http://www.stormpulse.com/

[jeff]

I would say the mid coast...Corpus to Matagorda Bay. Could even go as far north as Matagorda County. Storms tend to bump the ridge more than the models think...looks a lot like 2003's Claudette, maybe a bit stronger at landfall.

I agree, Jeff. CRP to Matagorda. Could be 75-80 kts at landfall. Small storm, not too much of a storm surge.

yea, not much surge..similar to Claudette 03 which produced about 3-4 feet on the side side of Matagorda Bay. Could go in a little south of that with a more favorable surge runup into San Antonio Bay, but nothing higher than 5 feet.

[jeff]

I live in Fort Bend county Richmond/Rosenberg area, if it comes in around Matagorda i think i will get some much needed rain.

I am hard pressed to forecast much for Fort Bend COunty if the current track holds just sough of Seadrift. Small storm size would likely limit impacts to squalls in the NE quad with 1-2 inches of rain and some gusty winds. However, should the track come more up the coast closer to Matagorda, then impacts would be greater

[Rip76]

What's the last storm to hit Matagorda directly?

[tireman4]

Claudette?

[weatherrabbit]

What's the last storm to hit Matagorda directly?

going back into history could go back to the '42 or '45 storm...

[perk]

I live in Fort Bend county Richmond/Rosenberg area, if it comes in around Matagorda i think i will get some much needed rain.

I am hard pressed to forecast much for Fort Bend COunty if the current track holds just sough of Seadrift. Small storm size would likely limit impacts to squalls in the NE quad with 1-2 inches of rain and some gusty winds. However, should the track come more up the coast closer to Matagorda, then impacts would be greater

Thanks jeff.