March Weather Disccusion: Severe Storms Possible Tues/Wed

[srainhoutx]

Anyone notice KHOU forum is on Standard time? Or maybe MDT?

Did you go to your user control panel and change your setting to DST?

Board setting currently:

System timezone: [UTC - 6] Central Standard Time

Time Enable Summer Time/DST: Yes

[jasons2k]

Looking at the local windfield and and surface obs on GRLevel3, it appears that's indeed the surface 'warm front' to me. Although if it's moving south, isn't it now technically a '"cold front" again? hehe.

[TexasBreeze]

Anyone notice KHOU forum is on Standard time? Or maybe MDT?

Did you go to your user control panel and change your setting to DST?

Board setting currently:

System timezone: [UTC - 6] Central Standard Time

Time Enable Summer Time/DST: Yes

That requires work. I guess I'll stay on MDT for now. My car is on MDT until October.

Anyhow, did I mention the 15Z RUC is quicker to break out showers, maybe storms than the 12Z NAM?

That's funny my truck radio is mdt too until October too. I can't figure out that crazy thing.
Theres thinning of cloud cover at my house but still not enough to initiate overly exciting instability for storms let alone anything severe. That coastal front is still south and moving well not much at all.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0303
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE RIO GRAND VALLEY ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND SRN PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291918Z - 292115Z

HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EDWARDS
PLATEAU REGION OF TX SUPPORTS INCREASING -- BUT STILL CONDITIONAL --
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOT OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY NEAR AND N OF DRT /DEL RIO TX/...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW INTO
THE 70S TO 80S. WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EVIDENT IN THIS REGION...ON WRN
FRINGE OF A WAVY FRONT DRAPING SEWD INVOF THE RIO GRANDE...AND THEN
EWD ACROSS S TX AND INTO THE MIDDLE TX COAST.

WHILE CAPPING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION...LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX EJECTING ENEWD ACROSS
NRN MEXICO AND INTO W TX COMBINED WITH CONTINUED HEATING WILL ACT TO
WEAKEN THE CAP WITH TIME. FIRST HINTS OF DEEPER CU/CB DEVELOPMENT
ARE EVIDENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO SW OF DRT -- EVIDENCE OF
THE INCREASING ASCENT...AND IT APPEARS THAT POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LIKEWISE INCREASE NEWD INTO TX WITH TIME.

WHILE STILL CONDITIONAL UPON CAP EROSION/STORM DEVELOPMENT... SEVERE
THREAT -- PARTICULARLY IN THE FORM OF HAIL -- WOULD LIKELY EVOLVE
SUBSEQUENT TO STORM INITIATION...AS 30 TO 35 KT MID-LEVEL WSWLYS
SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED CELLS. WHILE TIMING
REMAINS UNCERTAIN...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR SIGNS OF
MORE IMMINENT DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 03/29/2011


ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors to the E...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0304
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA...SRN MS...FAR SRN AL...FAR SE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291948Z - 292115Z

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEPENING CU FIELD OVER
SRN LA /WITH OBSERVED LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE PAST HR/. AN
EXPECTED UPSWING IN CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE
ISSUANCE OF A WW...PERHAPS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

LATEST SFC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATELY TO VERY
UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY INHIBITED ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MLCAPE VALUES MAXIMIZED OVER S-CNTRL LA /WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S/. BROKEN CLOUD COVER HAS
LIMITED HEATING OVER E TX/WRN LA AND SRN MS/AL...AND WILL LIKELY
DELAY CONVECTIVE INITIATION. DEEPENING CU FIELD/RECENTLY OBSERVED
LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SRN LA APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO AN ANALYZED MARINE/WARM FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE SHORT-TERM...BUT THE PRESENCE OF SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING
OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING MAY PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT
SAID...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 40 KTS WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAY EXIST
/PARTICULARLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
ENHANCED/...BUT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAK
0-1 KM FLOW.

..ROGERS.. 03/29/2011


ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

[srainhoutx]

Tornado Watch issued for Southern Louisiana/Mississippi...

[srainhoutx]

Svere Thunderstorm Watch issues to the W of Houston Metro...

Code: Select all

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 73
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 73 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC007-013-019-021-025-029-031-055-057-091-123-127-131-137-149-
163-171-175-177-187-209-249-255-259-265-271-273-283-285-287-297-
311-323-325-355-385-391-409-453-463-465-469-479-493-507-
300400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0073.110329T2055Z-110330T0400Z/

TX
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARANSAS              ATASCOSA            BANDERA
BASTROP              BEE                 BEXAR
BLANCO               CALDWELL            CALHOUN
COMAL                DEWITT              DIMMIT
DUVAL                EDWARDS             FAYETTE
FRIO                 GILLESPIE           GOLIAD
GONZALES             GUADALUPE           HAYS
JIM WELLS            KARNES              KENDALL
KERR                 KINNEY              KLEBERG
LAVACA               LA SALLE            LEE
LIVE OAK             MAVERICK            MCMULLEN
MEDINA               NUECES              REAL
REFUGIO              SAN PATRICIO        TRAVIS
UVALDE               VAL VERDE           VICTORIA
WEBB                 WILSON              ZAVALA

SPC Update:

...20Z UPDATE...

...SRN/ERN TX INTO LWR MS VALLEY...
PRIOR OUTLOOK HAS GENERALLY BEEN MAINTAINED WITH LITTLE CHANGE.
ASIDE FROM HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER... AND
THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION NORTH/NORTHEAST OF DEL
RIO...LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
REMAINS UNCLEAR. EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
REGION...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION IS STILL
ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. HOWEVER...HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE SOUTH AND WEST OF HOUSTON INTO THE VICINITY OF SAN
ANTONIO. IT MAY BE THAT THIS FEATURE BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR THE MOST
VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS COUPLING OF POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES CONTRIBUTES TO INCREASING DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW
BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPSCALE
CONVECTIVE GROWTH INTO AN EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
SOME STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS LATE MAY SUPPORT THE
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES.

[srainhoutx]

HGX thoughts...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
350 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...
AIRMASS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY SET UP FOR EVENTS TONIGHT...WITH THE
OPERATIVE WORD BEING SLOWLY. WARM FRONT THAT WAS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INLAND THIS AFTN SEEMS TO BE DRAGGING AND IS STILL CURRENTLY LING-
ERING OVER OUR FAR SWRN COUNTIES AOA THE MIDDLE TX COAST. HOWEVER
SHORT-TERM PROGS KEEPING WITH THE IDEA OF MOVING THIS BOUNDARY IN-
LAND BEFORE THAT LONG. THIS COUPLED WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH AND A DISTURBANCE OR TWO FROM THE WSW WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE THE BEST CHANCES OF (NEEDED) RAIN WE HAVE HAD IN A WHILE.
BUT THE PRICE TO PAY MAY BE IN THE FORM OF POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS
AS PER THE PROGGED UPPER JET DYNAMICS...INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AMS
AND LATEST VERTICAL WIND PROFILES. WHILE HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY...
THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS/GUSTS STARTING FOR
OUR MORE N/NWRN COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING (00-03Z) BEFORE TRANS-
LATING OFF THE COAST (06-09Z). ATTM THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES APPEAR
TO BE WITH THE TIMING/TRACK OF THIS WARM FRONT...WHICH COULD BE A
FACTOR WITH WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL OCCUR.

THE LINGERING UPPER TROF AXIS WILL HELP KEEP LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR
SE TX INTO WEDS NIGHT AS MODELS INDICATE ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGIES
MOVING IN FROM THE WSW. HOWEVER INCREASINGLY DEEPENING NWLY WINDS
WILL CLEAR THINGS OUT BY EARLY THUR. DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDIT-
IONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR
THE WEEKEND. 41

[srainhoutx]

Late Update from Corpus. They are buying the WRF solution regarding convection...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
428 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 73 WAS JUST ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE NEARBY COASTAL
WATERS UNTIL 04Z. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE OVER THE AREA AS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FINALLY MATERIALIZE. THERE STILL COULD BE
A SMALL WINDOW FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA...BUT MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE FOR AREA OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN MEXICO TO THE WEST OF EAGLE PASS AND SOUTH OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...LOCATED FROM TEMPLE TO JUNCTION TO SANDERSON AT 21Z. AIR MASS
MORE UNSTABLE ALONG THE BORDER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINT
TEMPS HOLDING IN THE MID 60S...PROVIDING CAPES 2500-3000 J/KG. EXPECT
AREA OF CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH ASSISTANCE FROM
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK COMING OUT OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CHIHUAHUA. THE 4KM WRF MODEL WITH
EXPLICIT CONVECTION LEADS TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH CAPE AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG
EXPECTED OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR STILL AROUND 50
KNOTS THIS EVENING...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE WEAK AND
THREAT FOR TORNADOES TO BE MINIMAL.

[Andrew]

If this cap could break some more things could get going but it looks a little late right now... Overnight into tomm looks eventful as for rain. Hopefully.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0307
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0559 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW/S-CENTRAL TX...PRIMARILY SRN HILL
COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU TO MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND COASTAL
BEND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 73...

VALID 292259Z - 300100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 73
CONTINUES.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FCST TO INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT OVER THIS REGION AS FRONT IMPINGES ON HIGHER-THETAE
WARM SECTOR OVER S TX...LARGE HAIL AND OCNL DAMAGING GUSTS EXPECTED.


LAST SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM NEAR GTU WSWWD ACROSS
EDWARDS/VAL VERDE COUNTIES...AND CROSSING RIO GRANDE S OF
6R6...MOVING SSEWD AT ABOUT 15 KT. S OF FRONT...CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO FORM OVER SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE IN COAHUILA...BUT
GENERALLY HAS BEEN WEAKENING AFTER MOVING E OF MOUNTAINS AND AWAY
FROM OROGRAPHIC FORCING SOURCE. STILL...CINH MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
ALLOW ONE OR TWO SUCH TSTMS TO ACQUIRE SUSTAINED ROTATION AND REACH
RIO GRANDE AFTER 00Z...ESPECIALLY ANY LEFT-MOVERS OR BOWS THAT MAY
FORM. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH 40-50
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. PRONOUNCED COUNTERCLOCKWISE CURVATURE IN
PREFRONTAL/LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...BOTH AS OBSERVED IN DFX VWP AND AS
PREDICTED REASONABLY WELL BY RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...YIELDS FAR MORE
NEGATIVE THAN POSITIVE SRH FOR ALL BUT EXTREMELY DEVIANT/FAST
RIGHT-MOVERS...WHICH ARE UNLIKELY EXCEPT WHERE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT.

ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOPING N OR NE OF MEX MOUNTAINS MAY BE UNDERCUT
BY ZONAL SEGMENT OF COLD FRONT SOON THEREAFTER...AS HAS ISOLATED
CELL OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEEPENING
FARTHER ENE ALONG MORE SW-NE ALIGNED FRONTAL SEGMENT FROM
EDWARDS-LLANO COUNTIES AS OF 2230Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY HAVE ACCESS
TO WARM-SECTOR AIR MASS FOR MORE SUSTAINED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ANY
TSTMS THAT CAN AVOID ACQUIRING LEFT-MOVING SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS AND MOVE EWD/SEWD AT LEAST IN STEP WITH BOUNDARY
TRANSLATION. MOST STORM MOTIONS NEAR FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
HODOGRAPH...WITH FRONTAL FORCING EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTING TO DOMINANT
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE.

..EDWARDS.. 03/29/2011


ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

[Ptarmigan]

If this cap could break some more things could get going but it looks a little late right now... Overnight into tomm looks eventful as for rain. Hopefully.

Let's hope that cockroach ridge breaks and we get some rain.

[jasons2k]

It just figures that we have a watch to the east and to the west...and here we sit, sandwiched in-between.

[jasons2k]

I don't think I've ever seen a day quite like today. A "warm front" that actually retreated back south, ahead of an advancing cold front...I'm almost speechless. And yet, it advances onshore EAST of us, in LA, and placing them in the warm sector. Huh? No wonder we saw no posts from Wxman57 today...it's just insanity. The Gods must be crazy...or just really angry with H-town, it seems.

[srainhoutx]

HGX suggests a slight cap in the aviation update...

THE 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF KCRP AND KLCH BOTH INDICATED A SLIGHT CAP
IN PLACE. THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND NAM12 TIME SECTIONS INDICATE
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM KCXO SOUTHWARD TO
THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH KCLL AND KUTS BETWEEN
02Z AND 04Z. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH KCXO BETWEEN 04Z AND
06Z...KIAH...KHOU...AND KSGR BETWEEN 05Z AND 07Z...AND THEN REACH
THE COASTAL SITES AFTER 08Z.

[Poltracker]

Thundering here in Deer Park right now. Maybe something kicking up?

[sleetstorm]

I am hearing thunder in the distance here in Baytown.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0311
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0817 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 73...

VALID 300117Z - 300315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 73
CONTINUES.

WW MAY BE CLEARED FROM SW-NE AS POSTFRONTAL CAA LAYER DEEPENS...AND
POSTFRONTAL CONVECTION EITHER DISSIPATES OR MOVES AWAY. PRIND TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME AT LEAST SCATTERED IN COVERAGE INVOF FRONT
AS IT MOVES OVER MIDDLE-UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN E OF WW.
THEREFORE...DEPENDING ON TIMING AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS...EITHER
ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO EXTEND WW COVERAGE
EWD IN GAP NOW PRESENT BETWEEN WWS 72-73. PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS
ENTIRE SWATH FROM UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN TO RIO GRANDE VALLEY
REMAINS HAIL...WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR SUPERCELL DOWNDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND AS WELL.

01Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT ACROSS ANGELINA...WASHINGTON...
COMAL AND KINNEY COUNTIES TX...MOVING SEWD 15-20 KT. FRONTAL
ZONE...BOTH SFC AND ALOFT...WILL BE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTMS.
INITIATION OVER MEX MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN LIKELY FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS ALSO UNTIL SUPPRESSED BY COMBINATION OF POSTFRONTAL CAA AND
DIABATIC SFC COOLING OF HIGHER TERRAIN. FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS
REMAINED BELOW SVR LIMITS SO FAR...WHILE OROGRAPHIC TSTMS HAVE
DISSIPATED PRIOR TO CROSSING RIO GRANDE. AFTER DARK...INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL WAA AND RELATED ASCENT...ESPECIALLY OVER S-CENTRAL AND SE
TX...MAY IMPROVE ORGANIZATION OF POST-FRONTAL TSTMS IN ADDITION TO
SUPPORTING FURTHER FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY AHEAD OF FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE LIMITED BY STRENGTHENING MLCINH...ALREADY
ESTIMATED TO BE MAXIMIZED AT 50-100 J/KG OVER MIDDLE TX COASTAL
PLAIN...AND WEAKER FARTHER E AND W. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE...PARTICULARLY DEEP-LAYER MEASURES SUCH AS 40-50 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY WEAKNESS OF FLOW IN 0-3 KM AGL LAYER.
MODIFIED CRP/LCH RAOBS SUGGEST MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

..EDWARDS.. 03/30/2011


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

[Andrew]

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 75
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
835 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 75 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC015-039-071-089-157-167-199-201-239-241-245-291-321-351-361-
457-473-481-300900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0075.110330T0135Z-110330T0900Z/

TX
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AUSTIN               BRAZORIA            CHAMBERS
COLORADO             FORT BEND           GALVESTON
HARDIN               HARRIS              JACKSON
JASPER               JEFFERSON           LIBERTY
MATAGORDA            NEWTON              ORANGE
TYLER                WALLER              WHARTON

DISCUSSION...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS WW AREA
TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SEWD INTO REGION...AND LOW-LATITUDE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W. 00Z CRP/LCH SOUNDINGS
INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BENEATH AN
EML WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 3500 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH
STEADILY STRENGTHENING SWLY WINDS IN THE MIDLEVELS AND RESULTING
40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ROBUST STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.