November Weather Discussion. Rollercoaster Pattern.

[srainhoutx]

Um, no AZ. Dan didn't like to get folks 'hopes' up with the "s" word because he was always concerned about the disappointment that some would feel.

[sambucol]

Is there a chance we may get some snow with this Thanksgiving front?

[wxman57]

Is there a chance we may get some snow with this Thanksgiving front?

Quite unlikely. Interesting that the new GFS run has SE TX in warm southerly winds for Thanksgiving. Cold air stays well to the north. Fine with me, but I suspect that the GFS just hasn't quite figured out what to do with the cold air.

[TexasBreeze]

The big chill is always just 2 weeks away day to day. The new run is fine by me for my time off work! I don't want to be freezing for 5 days!

[TexasMetBlake]

The 12z gfs continues to depict an arctic high (1048 mb) building over Alberta around the 20th. It seems lost as to what to do with it though.

[srainhoutx]

Yep, the OP 12Z GFS and Euro have slowed down dropping everything S. The HPC doesn't seem to be buying it, yet.

[TexasMetBlake]

Next week is certainly looking wet. As a coastal low develops and interacts with an approaching positively tilted trough, we should have a nice overrunning situation as 850 temps cool to 4-6 degrees over the metro. As the front retreats as a warm front, we should see significant convergence and plentiful stratocu rainfall over the entire CWA.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks to be a rainy Sunday/Monday. We may see heavy rain even. Some floods and severe weather events have occurred in November.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=hgx&gc=3

[svrwx0503]

Yeah, I was trying to find that vort lobe they were mentioning but I haven't been able to do so. It is possible they are looking at an "in-house" model. I know that they use a local WRF model configured to just southeast Texas with a 4km grid spacing...maybe the vort max is a little too small for the GFS or NAM with there larger grid spacing to pick up.

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z NAM looks dry with the front for our area. Interesting to note activity to our N and a Meso to our SW. Hmmm...

[Andrew]

Gfs continues to show rain on Monday but not as much. Always tricky with these lows and where they form.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like we have showers in the southern part of our area this morning. HGX is still painting a rather wet picture for parts of the area, Sunday and Monday with the best chances to our N and E as the front backs up as a warm front. Also of note regarding the Arctic Front, the Euro and to some extent the GFS are still showing a 1050+mb Arctic High Pressure dropping S into the Plains. HGX has now mentioned this as well...

00Z Euro...



THE FAR EXTENDED HAS A MORE ARCTIC-
IN-ORIGIN AIR MASS DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
...SIGNALING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD HAVE MORE OF A PUNCH
THAN RECENT MORE-PASSIVE FROPAS.

[wxman57]

The GFS sees the big high center in western Canada around the 18th-19th, but it loses the high completely on the 20th. It doesn't handle such outbreaks of cold air well in this time frame (8-10 days out).

[snowman65]

Still curious about Thanksgiving week in Central/Eastern Tennessee.....still looking chilly?....Thanks

[srainhoutx]

Still curious about Thanksgiving week in Central/Eastern Tennessee.....still looking chilly?....Thanks

A snip from Memphis...

INTERESTING
TO SEE THE LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTING
A COLD SNAP FOR THE UPCOMING THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEK.

[snowman65]

Thanks!...Bring it!!...hehe

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS still has a 1050mb+ Acrtic High dropping S into the Plains. Interesting to note that the Polar Vortex drops S, W of the Hudson Bay into Canada opening a path for more cold air to spill across the Arctic into N America. Who said La Nina years can be boring...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Canadian model is also 'sniffing' out the pattern change. Note the 1053mb Arctic High Pressure near Alaska...

[tireman4]

To quote Sraintx....stepping down?....

[snowman65]

Thanks for posting those pics SRAIN.....but I don't have a CLUE what it says. Took me 10 minutes to find TEXAS......lol