Re: December 2023
Posted: Wed Dec 13, 2023 8:48 am
FXUS64 KHGX 131147
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
547 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 244 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023
Showers are working their way into southern counties this morning
from South Texas courtesy of a weak disturbance just off the coast.
The bulk of the activity should remain to our south and west;
however, as activity works its way north, could see isolated
activity in the southern and western counties. Expect skies to be
mostly cloudy today with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s north of
I-10 and in the low to mid 60s south of I-10. Lows tonight will drop
into the 40s to low 50s north of I-10 and into the low 50s south of
I-10.
A mid to upper level low positioned over the Four Corners will
deepen and make its way east into Texas over the course of Thursday,
setting the stage for the next round of rain (more on that in the
long-term forecast). Closer to the surface, stronger high pressure
centered over the Appalachian region and a rather messy area of low
pressure will create a tightening pressure gradient and lead to
breezy conditions along the coast. Once again, the majority of
showers should remain north and west of our area; however, some
showers may make it into far western counties. Highs for Thursday
will be slightly warmer with highs in the mid to upper 60s area
wide. Lows will be in the upper 40s in the northernmost counties and
low to mid 50s elsewhere.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023
A strong upper level low from the West will encroach SE Texas
through the day on Friday. The start of the day will feature mostly
cloudy skies, isolated coastal showers, and breezy easterly winds.
However the end of the day will be quite different as the bulk of
the moisture associated with this approaching low swings through the
area. We can expect increasing showers and isolated thunderstorms to
build in from the west during the early afternoon with the
precipitation increasing in coverage and intensity through the
evening. The widespread rainfall, including some locally heavy
downpours, will continue through Friday night with the precipitation
ending from west to east Saturday morning. May want to make sure to
plan for a messy commute Friday evening. Rainfall totals will
generally be up to 1 to 2", with isolated higher amounts closer to
4" if any training storms set up. WPC maintains the Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall across the region on Friday
with the main impacts being some minor urban and small stream
flooding.
Breezy northerly winds will develop in the wake of the exiting
system on Saturday that will persist through Sunday with high
pressure building in through Tuesday continuing the dry, sunny
conditions for SE Texas.
Temperatures on Friday will be slightly below normal thanks to the
increased cloud cover and precipitation with high temperatures in
the mid to upper 60s expected. Slightly cooler conditions are
expected Friday night compared to Thursday night (lows in the upper
40s to low 50s) thanks to some of the cooler air filtering in behind
the departing low pressure system - but cloud cover will prevent too
much cooling. This cloud cover is not an issue through the weekend
through with high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s and lows in
the upper 30s to low/mid 40s. Very slight warming is expected on
Monday and Tuesday during the day as the cool northerly wind
subsides, but the clear skies will keep the chilly nights in place.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 544 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023
VFR prevailing through the period. Light showers are working
their way through western counties with VSCH at SGR and CLL
terminals. Activity should continue through the day and wane off
tonight. Winds will generally be light out of the east. Winds
could gust to around 25 knots at GLS terminal.
Adams
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 244 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023
A rather messy few days are expected across the coastal waters as
easterly winds increase ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms begin today and persist
through Friday morning - then increasing in coverage and intensity
Friday afternoon through late Saturday morning as the disturbance
moves through the region. Some lingering showers will be possible
through Saturday afternoon.
Small Craft Advisories go into effect this morning across the Gulf
Waters (and small craft should exercise caution in the Bays) as the
easterly winds increase to 20 to 25kts with gusts 30kts begins
bringing seas to 5 to 8ft. Conditions deteriorate tonight with the
easterly flow increasing to 25 to 30kts with gusts to 35kts and seas
to 7 to 10ft+ expected which will persist through Friday afternoon.
There may be a brief lull in the moderate to strong winds Friday
evening, but then moderate to strong northerly winds (20 to 30kts
sustained with gusts to 35kts) will develop behind the exiting
disturbance Friday night/Saturday morning. These conditions will
continue through Sunday morning. Seas will be a little slower to
lower with 4 to 6ft continuing into Sunday night.
The persistent, strong onshore winds will bring elevated high tides
Thursday evening and Friday evening. P-ETSS guidance currently has
high tides around 3.5ft above MLLW which is typically when we start
to see some minor coastal flooding near Crystal Beach and Surfside.
The increased seas and wave periods of 8 to 10 seconds will also
result in increased wave runup along the beaches. A Beach Hazards
Statement or Coastal Flood Advisory may issued in later forecast
packages if these forecasts persist.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 61 48 66 51 / 20 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 63 50 65 54 / 0 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 63 55 64 57 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 9 AM CST this morning
through late Thursday night for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 9 AM CST this morning
for GMZ350-355-370-375.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM CST Friday
for GMZ350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Fowler
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
547 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 244 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023
Showers are working their way into southern counties this morning
from South Texas courtesy of a weak disturbance just off the coast.
The bulk of the activity should remain to our south and west;
however, as activity works its way north, could see isolated
activity in the southern and western counties. Expect skies to be
mostly cloudy today with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s north of
I-10 and in the low to mid 60s south of I-10. Lows tonight will drop
into the 40s to low 50s north of I-10 and into the low 50s south of
I-10.
A mid to upper level low positioned over the Four Corners will
deepen and make its way east into Texas over the course of Thursday,
setting the stage for the next round of rain (more on that in the
long-term forecast). Closer to the surface, stronger high pressure
centered over the Appalachian region and a rather messy area of low
pressure will create a tightening pressure gradient and lead to
breezy conditions along the coast. Once again, the majority of
showers should remain north and west of our area; however, some
showers may make it into far western counties. Highs for Thursday
will be slightly warmer with highs in the mid to upper 60s area
wide. Lows will be in the upper 40s in the northernmost counties and
low to mid 50s elsewhere.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023
A strong upper level low from the West will encroach SE Texas
through the day on Friday. The start of the day will feature mostly
cloudy skies, isolated coastal showers, and breezy easterly winds.
However the end of the day will be quite different as the bulk of
the moisture associated with this approaching low swings through the
area. We can expect increasing showers and isolated thunderstorms to
build in from the west during the early afternoon with the
precipitation increasing in coverage and intensity through the
evening. The widespread rainfall, including some locally heavy
downpours, will continue through Friday night with the precipitation
ending from west to east Saturday morning. May want to make sure to
plan for a messy commute Friday evening. Rainfall totals will
generally be up to 1 to 2", with isolated higher amounts closer to
4" if any training storms set up. WPC maintains the Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall across the region on Friday
with the main impacts being some minor urban and small stream
flooding.
Breezy northerly winds will develop in the wake of the exiting
system on Saturday that will persist through Sunday with high
pressure building in through Tuesday continuing the dry, sunny
conditions for SE Texas.
Temperatures on Friday will be slightly below normal thanks to the
increased cloud cover and precipitation with high temperatures in
the mid to upper 60s expected. Slightly cooler conditions are
expected Friday night compared to Thursday night (lows in the upper
40s to low 50s) thanks to some of the cooler air filtering in behind
the departing low pressure system - but cloud cover will prevent too
much cooling. This cloud cover is not an issue through the weekend
through with high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s and lows in
the upper 30s to low/mid 40s. Very slight warming is expected on
Monday and Tuesday during the day as the cool northerly wind
subsides, but the clear skies will keep the chilly nights in place.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 544 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023
VFR prevailing through the period. Light showers are working
their way through western counties with VSCH at SGR and CLL
terminals. Activity should continue through the day and wane off
tonight. Winds will generally be light out of the east. Winds
could gust to around 25 knots at GLS terminal.
Adams
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 244 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023
A rather messy few days are expected across the coastal waters as
easterly winds increase ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms begin today and persist
through Friday morning - then increasing in coverage and intensity
Friday afternoon through late Saturday morning as the disturbance
moves through the region. Some lingering showers will be possible
through Saturday afternoon.
Small Craft Advisories go into effect this morning across the Gulf
Waters (and small craft should exercise caution in the Bays) as the
easterly winds increase to 20 to 25kts with gusts 30kts begins
bringing seas to 5 to 8ft. Conditions deteriorate tonight with the
easterly flow increasing to 25 to 30kts with gusts to 35kts and seas
to 7 to 10ft+ expected which will persist through Friday afternoon.
There may be a brief lull in the moderate to strong winds Friday
evening, but then moderate to strong northerly winds (20 to 30kts
sustained with gusts to 35kts) will develop behind the exiting
disturbance Friday night/Saturday morning. These conditions will
continue through Sunday morning. Seas will be a little slower to
lower with 4 to 6ft continuing into Sunday night.
The persistent, strong onshore winds will bring elevated high tides
Thursday evening and Friday evening. P-ETSS guidance currently has
high tides around 3.5ft above MLLW which is typically when we start
to see some minor coastal flooding near Crystal Beach and Surfside.
The increased seas and wave periods of 8 to 10 seconds will also
result in increased wave runup along the beaches. A Beach Hazards
Statement or Coastal Flood Advisory may issued in later forecast
packages if these forecasts persist.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 61 48 66 51 / 20 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 63 50 65 54 / 0 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 63 55 64 57 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 9 AM CST this morning
through late Thursday night for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 9 AM CST this morning
for GMZ350-355-370-375.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM CST Friday
for GMZ350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Fowler