November 2023

[Cpv17]

Well guys, Friday morning I woke up with a sore throat and now I’ve been congested all weekend with body aches, chills and sweats, and low energy. Looks like my first sickness is here. Most likely a sinus infection again. That seems to be what I get just about every time. Just gotta let it run its course.

At least another good round of rain is headed in and the Texans won.

[DoctorMu]

A&M is such a dumpster fire right now. More people than just Jimbo need to be gone. And the timing doesn’t make any sense to me.

Everyone involved in his contract extension all need to be shown the door.

Sharp, BOR need to go. However, they believe they are not accountable...unfortunately, they may be right.

[DoctorMu]

Maybe 0.4 inches here. I'm expecting more light rain in CLL tonight, tomorrow, and Tuesday. This time of year - that's OK. We don't need 3-5 inches of rain that run off.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

A&M is such a dumpster fire right now. More people than just Jimbo need to be gone. And the timing doesn’t make any sense to me.

Be patient, those people will be out soon. Sharp will be gone when his contract is up.

Bjork, may not last the week.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

And FTR, I’m hearing Lanning or Schumann. Everyone else is noise.

[Stratton20]

Dan Lanning is pretty unlikely, I don’t see him leaving Oregon

[DoctorMu]

And FTR, I’m hearing Lanning or Schumann. Everyone else is noise.

Same here. Lanning's Chief of Staff of football operations is an Aggie: Marshall Malchow who worked for Bjork. Bjork fired Jimbo and TAMU's Chief of football operations this morning.

Sharp's contract is through 2028, thanks to the BOR - both of whom gave us Jimbo's contract extension.

I don't think Bjork is going anywhere - he did not extend Jimbo's contract, but did hire Schloss. I have no complaints with him.

[biggerbyte]

Well guys, Friday morning I woke up with a sore throat and now I’ve been congested all weekend with body aches, chills and sweats, and low energy. Looks like my first sickness is here. Most likely a sinus infection again. That seems to be what I get just about every time. Just gotta let it run its course.

At least another good round of rain is headed in and the Texans won.

Me too. I feel awful. This cough is relentless.

[Pas_Bon]

I vote for a dedicated non-weather forum on this site to allow for all of this dicussion.

[djmike]

Looks like rain will be ending soon next few hours. Is it supposed to start new convection today?

[DoctorMu]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
331 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 210 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023

A few weather features will continue to work together to result in
widespread rainfall today and tonight. A gradual improvement is
expected Tuesday.

The mid to upper level trough will continue to progress eastward
across the Southern Plains this morning while a coastal low over the
Western Gulf of Mexico moves closer into the Upper Texas Coast.
Moisture associated to the coastal low will continue to maintain a
saturated profile from surface through at least the mid levels all
day, as depicted on the surface and 500MB RH values as well as the
forecast soundings, giving us plenty to work with for rain
development. In addition, several more vort maxes will be passing
overhead, at least until the axis of the mid level trough moves to
our east, and will be able to tap into the moisture to result in
some moderate rainfall at times.

Although much of the day will be rainy, showers will mainly be light
with some locations seeing light to moderate intensities at times.
Rainfall totals from sunrise today through sunrise on Tuesday is
expected to be 1-2 inches with isolated higher amounts for areas
south of I-10 and around 0.5-1 inch elsewhere. The highest amounts
are still expected to be closer towards the coastal locations, which
is where the Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 1 out of 4)
continues. Regardless of the rainfall totals, roads may be slick and
ponding of water along roadways and poor drainage areas can occur.
Thus, make sure to allow extra time and patience on your commute
today and tonight.

The day will be windy as well, in particular over areas near and
south of I-10, so hold on tight to those umbrellas. Northeast winds
are expected to range around 10-15 mph for areas north of I-10,
around 15-18 mph for areas near and just south of I-10, and around
25 mph for areas in and near the coasts. Gusts of 25-35 mph is
possible from time to time. Winds will be strongest over the Barrier
Islands, and a Wind Advisory will continue in effect for this region
through late tonight.

Conditions will be improving Tuesday (although still breezy) as the
trough axis moves into the eastern portions of Texas and the coastal
low departs eastward into the Central Gulf of Mexico, and drier air
begins to move in from the north. Much of the rain, if not all,
should depart our local area before midnight.

With respect to temperatures, the rain and cloud coverage will gift
us highs in the low 60s areawide. The lows tonight will be in the
low to mid 50s over areas north of I-10 and the mid to upper 50s
over areas south of I-10. Warmer conditions are expected Tuesday,
with highs climbing into the mid to upper 60s. The cooler drier air
mass will keep lows in the low to mid 50s Tuesday night.

Cotto (24)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 210 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023

Ridging building aloft over Texas and surface high pressure
sliding into Texas will lead to pleasant weather Wednesday
through Saturday. Expect dry conditions, light winds, and rather
seasonable temperatures. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in
the upper 60s to low 70s with overnight lows in the low to mid
70s. Temperatures and moisture do rise a bit on Friday ahead of
weak boundary will slide through Texas late Friday into Saturday
morning. This will be a precip-free front, with the most
noticeable impact being a wind shift. High temperatures Friday
and Saturday will be in the low to mid 70s, so a pretty nice start
to the weekend. Forecast becomes a bit more uncertain on Sunday
as guidance indicates a weak disturbance may slide through the
area bringing isolated to scattered showers. However, the system
may slow down and not pass through East Texas until Monday, which
would result in a dry Sunday for us. Once the coastal low that is
sliding through the area today exits to the east, the forecast for
the rain potential Sunday or Monday should get better handled by
the guidance.

Fowler

&&

[djmike]

Not impressed with todays system. All week leading up was talk of several inches for many and possible street flooding from heavy rain. Wheres the heavy rain? . So far the “main event” is the same ol light mist sprinkles. Why cant we get a heavy rain anymore? Sheesh! …next.

[Cromagnum]

Seems Iike multiple vort maxes are still predicted to roll through all day. I don't know if anything will cause a heavy downpour but it's supposed to rain all day. I have standing water in my yard so can't complain .

[Cpv17]

Just a steady light to at times moderate rain. Definitely nothing on the heavy side. At least not around here.

[redneckweather]

Looking ahead after this mess, it looks like a nice cool/cold Thanksgiving for us here in Southeast, Texas. Perfect timing and Roll Tide!

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 131115
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
515 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 210 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023

A few weather features will continue to work together to result in
widespread rainfall today and tonight. A gradual improvement is
expected Tuesday.

The mid to upper level trough will continue to progress eastward
across the Southern Plains this morning while a coastal low over the
Western Gulf of Mexico moves closer into the Upper Texas Coast.
Moisture associated to the coastal low will continue to maintain a
saturated profile from surface through at least the mid levels all
day, as depicted on the surface and 500MB RH values as well as the
forecast soundings, giving us plenty to work with for rain
development. In addition, several more vort maxes will be passing
overhead, at least until the axis of the mid level trough moves to
our east, and will be able to tap into the moisture to result in
some moderate rainfall at times.

Although much of the day will be rainy, showers will mainly be light
with some locations seeing light to moderate intensities at times.
Rainfall totals from sunrise today through sunrise on Tuesday is
expected to be 1-2 inches with isolated higher amounts for areas
south of I-10 and around 0.5-1 inch elsewhere. The highest amounts
are still expected to be closer towards the coastal locations, which
is where the Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 1 out of 4)
continues. Regardless of the rainfall totals, roads may be slick and
ponding of water along roadways and poor drainage areas can occur.
Thus, make sure to allow extra time and patience on your commute
today and tonight.

The day will be windy as well, in particular over areas near and
south of I-10, so hold on tight to those umbrellas. Northeast winds
are expected to range around 10-15 mph for areas north of I-10,
around 15-18 mph for areas near and just south of I-10, and around
25 mph for areas in and near the coasts. Gusts of 25-35 mph is
possible from time to time. Winds will be strongest over the Barrier
Islands, and a Wind Advisory will continue in effect for this region
through late tonight.

Conditions will be improving Tuesday (although still breezy) as the
trough axis moves into the eastern portions of Texas and the coastal
low departs eastward into the Central Gulf of Mexico, and drier air
begins to move in from the north. Much of the rain, if not all,
should depart our local area before midnight.

With respect to temperatures, the rain and cloud coverage will gift
us highs in the low 60s areawide. The lows tonight will be in the
low to mid 50s over areas north of I-10 and the mid to upper 50s
over areas south of I-10. Warmer conditions are expected Tuesday,
with highs climbing into the mid to upper 60s. The cooler drier air
mass will keep lows in the low to mid 50s Tuesday night.

Cotto (24)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 210 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023

Ridging building aloft over Texas and surface high pressure
sliding into Texas will lead to pleasant weather Wednesday
through Saturday. Expect dry conditions, light winds, and rather
seasonable temperatures. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in
the upper 60s to low 70s with overnight lows in the low to mid
70s. Temperatures and moisture do rise a bit on Friday ahead of
weak boundary will slide through Texas late Friday into Saturday
morning. This will be a precip-free front, with the most
noticeable impact being a wind shift. High temperatures Friday
and Saturday will be in the low to mid 70s, so a pretty nice start
to the weekend. Forecast becomes a bit more uncertain on Sunday
as guidance indicates a weak disturbance may slide through the
area bringing isolated to scattered showers. However, the system
may slow down and not pass through East Texas until Monday, which
would result in a dry Sunday for us. Once the coastal low that is
sliding through the area today exits to the east, the forecast for
the rain potential Sunday or Monday should get better handled by
the guidance.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 444 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023

A rainy and messy forecast package for SE TX as an upper level
trough moving across the Southern Plains and a coastal low
approaching the Upper TX Coast work together to bring in periods
of light to moderate SHRA throughout the TAF period. Cigs will
generally be IFR to MVFR but they can bounce to a higher or lower
criteria at times. A 4-6 SM vis due to patchy fog accompanied by
the -SHRA can also occur on occasion.

NE winds will be stronger today, ranging between 10-15 KTS for
areas N of I-10, between 15-20 KTS for areas S of I-10, and around
25 KTS over the Barrier Islands. Gusts of 25-30 KTS can be
expected at times and may be slightly stronger for the Barrier
Islands. Rain is expected to be on the downward trend tonight, but
periods of -SHRA may still be possible Tue, in particular for
sites south of CXO. Winds will relax to around 08-12 KTS (slightly
stronger for GLS) tonight and continue through Tue.

Cotto (24)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 210 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023

Gusty winds and building seas have begun to spread across the
coastal areas as a surface low strengthens off the South-Central
Texas coast. This low will move northeasterly through the day
passing off the SE Texas coastline before exiting into the
Lousiana coast tomorrow. Gale Warnings will be in effect today
through tonight for the Gulf waters as the northeasterly winds
climb to 30 to 35kts with gusts to 40 to 45kts possible. These
strong winds will lead to seas building to 8 to 12ft with
occasional seas to 14ft. The Bays will see rough waters with
winds up to around 25 to 30 kts and gusts to 35kts. So while they
are in a Small Craft Advisory, gusts to gale force will be
possible. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected through Tuesday morning. With the strong, persistent
northeasterly winds, there will be a chance for minor coastal
flooding and a high risk of strong rip currents today.

Conditions will improve through the day on Tuesday, but Small
Craft Advisories will likely be needed for the Gulf Waters through
Tuesday afternoon or evening. Then light winds and low seas are
expected through the rest of the week.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 63 53 68 52 / 70 50 20 10
Houston (IAH) 61 56 66 54 / 90 70 40 20
Galveston (GLS) 64 59 66 57 / 90 80 50 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for TXZ436>439.

Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
GMZ350-355-370-375.

Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cotto (24)
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Cotto (24)
MARINE...Fowler

[don]

Not impressed with todays system. All week leading up was talk of several inches for many and possible street flooding from heavy rain. Wheres the heavy rain? . So far the “main event” is the same ol light mist sprinkles. Why cant we get a heavy rain anymore? Sheesh! …next.

I said yesterday to lower expectations. I also mentioned several times that heavy rain was a possibility depending on the track of the surface low and available instability.No one ever said it was guaranteed to happen. Remember enthusiastic model runs are not the forecast,just a possibility.

What i said on Friday:

Looking at the models,it looks like things should be pretty quiet.With on and off light showers and drizzle until Sunday night.That would stop the grounds from being overly saturated and mitigate flooding issues.

Late Sunday through Monday is when a vigorous shortwave moves through and triggers a gulf low.That's when there should be an enhancement to rainfall.Rainfall amounts will be highly dependent on instability and the track of the surface low.The further offshore the low is the less precip we will have here.For right now a broad brush of 1-2 inches of rain looks like a safe bet Monday area wide.But there could be much higher totals south of I-10 depending on the track of the low.So I wouldn't rule out street flooding yet.

[don]

Im at over 2" of rain some im happy with that.Most of Harris county has received 2-3+ inches of rain when you look at the Harris county flood control rain gauges.

[brazoriatx]

So looking past this..what's on the horizon for Thanksgiving?

[Stratton20]

Still not 100% certain yet, both the Euro, CMC, EPS, GEFS, GEPS agree on arctic or at least some chilly air making a push south into our neck of the woods, the GFS doesn’t agree, depending on the timing, thanksgiving could be on the colder side, still alot to watch though and a long ways out