2024 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Stratton20]

Steering currents completely collapse on the euro, makes landfall in tampico, then loops back around into the gulf and just sits their, wonky!

[Cpv17]

I’m thinking by Saturday we should know a lot more. Way too early in the game right now to know for sure where anything is going.

[mcheer23]

EURO Control run has back to back runs of future 91L making its way north toward TX/LA after the loop

[Cpv17]

Haven’t checked the EPS yet, but the 12z GEFS is lighting up the western Gulf with activity.

[tireman4]

Uncertainties

[tireman4]

Matt Lanza:

NHC has upped odds of development in the Bay of Campeche to 30% next week. For us in SE TX, this is most likely staying well to our south. Most model runs have also tempered rain totals and made them fairly manageable next week. Obviously, a risk for a rogue deluge somewhere. 1/2

[Cpv17]

Matt Lanza:

NHC has upped odds of development in the Bay of Campeche to 30% next week. For us in SE TX, this is most likely staying well to our south. Most model runs have also tempered rain totals and made them fairly manageable next week. Obviously, a risk for a rogue deluge somewhere. 1/2

It’s now 40%.

[tireman4]

Matt Lanza:

NHC has upped odds of development in the Bay of Campeche to 30% next week. For us in SE TX, this is most likely staying well to our south. Most model runs have also tempered rain totals and made them fairly manageable next week. Obviously, a risk for a rogue deluge somewhere. 1/2

It’s now 40%.

Yep...

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend or early next week.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early
or middle part of next week while it moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[tireman4]

And for our neighbors to the east...

Invest #90L maybe trying to organize just a little bit east of Florida today. Looks like there could be a window for some development the next couple days before it transitions into an extratropical cyclone pretty quickly. pic.twitter.com/B3hsFqYwSG
-- Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) June 13, 2024

[AtascocitaWX]

Bay of Campeche storms makes me nervous.
Never know when they form.
So models are in agreement that this goes into Mexico or is there still uncertainty?

[Rip76]

Question, just because I don't remember.

What is the last BOC storm that made it's way to the Houston area?

[Cpv17]

Bay of Campeche storms makes me nervous.
Never know when they form.
So models are in agreement that this goes into Mexico or is there still uncertainty?

Uncertainty. This gyre could spawn two storms. And there’s a possibility that the first one (if it does go into Mexico) could loop back around into the Gulf. Look towards the Yucatán Peninsula and the Western/SW Caribbean for the possibility of a second storm mid to late next week. This is a really complex setup.

[Cpv17]

Question, just because I don't remember.

What is the last BOC storm that made it's way to the Houston area?

Nicholas in September 2021.

[Rip76]

Question, just because I don't remember.

What is the last BOC storm that made it's way to the Houston area?

Nicholas in September 2021.

Oh, yes. Thank you

[tireman4]

What Dr. Pas Bon was alluding to earlier...from Matt Lanza


We have a little bit of a new wrinkle today, and this involves the potential for a second western Gulf system by next weekend or so. This “gyre” type setup in Central America is causing us headaches, and another disturbance may pivot from the southwest Caribbean to just north of the Yucatan by next weekend. From there it would probably move quickly north toward Texas, Louisiana, or Mississippi. Potential for another western Gulf system next week is supported to varying levels by both the European and GFS ensemble models. (Tropical Tidbits) Whether there will be enough time or a stable enough environment for more development to occur, it’s too soon to say. But the timeline is next weekend into early the week of June 24th. We’ll keep you posted.

[Cpv17]

What Dr. Pas Bon was alluding to earlier...from Matt Lanza


We have a little bit of a new wrinkle today, and this involves the potential for a second western Gulf system by next weekend or so. This “gyre” type setup in Central America is causing us headaches, and another disturbance may pivot from the southwest Caribbean to just north of the Yucatan by next weekend. From there it would probably move quickly north toward Texas, Louisiana, or Mississippi. Potential for another western Gulf system next week is supported to varying levels by both the European and GFS ensemble models. (Tropical Tidbits) Whether there will be enough time or a stable enough environment for more development to occur, it’s too soon to say. But the timeline is next weekend into early the week of June 24th. We’ll keep you posted.

The CPC favors Texas or Louisiana as well.

[Stratton20]

That 2nd system after this one is getting my interest fast, man that is a scary run of the GFS, just completely stalls a system off the southern texas coast for a whole week

[Cpv17]

That 2nd system after this one is getting my interest fast, man that is a scary run of the GFS, just completely stalls a system off the southern texas coast for a whole week

The second potential system has been the one that I’ve been most concerned with since yesterday.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 i can see why lol, obviously this is a waxk run by the GFS, but thats not the kind of steering pattern you want to see, it its like it got stuck in quicksand, nothinf to pick it up

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 i can see why lol, obviously this is a waxk run by the GFS, but thats not the kind of steering pattern you want to see, it its like it got stuck in quicksand, nothinf to pick it up

It also has decent ensemble support.