April 2023

[Stratton20]

00z HRRR is the worst case scenario for you coastal and sw county folks, basically keeps the heaviest totals offshore on this run, but that line that just trains over the open water would essentially cut off moist flow, effectively preventing convection, thats why rain fall totals for those areas are way lower on this run

[DoctorMu]

Wow. 00z NAM has training from Austin to Hearne to Texarkana. An even farther NW solution? Crazy.

[jasons2k]

Split the difference

[davidiowx]

00z HRRR is the worst case scenario for you coastal and sw county folks, basically keeps the heaviest totals offshore on this run, but that line that just trains over the open water would essentially cut off moist flow, effectively preventing convection, thats why rain fall totals for those areas are way lower on this run

Sure if you’re looking at precip accum 12-18 hours into the run. Total precip 24+ hours out is a roll of the dice in these set ups. Lots will change overnight. This has a classic training set up across the coast (or further N) with outflow north as the wind shifts. Models may or may not have picked it up yet. No real way to say one way or the other, but just wait and see. Tomorrow will shed more light on what’s going on.

[davidiowx]

Split the difference

Precisely

[don]

00z HRRR is the worst case scenario for you coastal and sw county folks, basically keeps the heaviest totals offshore on this run, but that line that just trains over the open water would essentially cut off moist flow, effectively preventing convection, thats why rain fall totals for those areas are way lower on this run

If that scenario did play out it would line up with what the Canadian model has been showing.

[Cpv17]

00z HRRR is the worst case scenario for you coastal and sw county folks, basically keeps the heaviest totals offshore on this run, but that line that just trains over the open water would essentially cut off moist flow, effectively preventing convection, thats why rain fall totals for those areas are way lower on this run

Sure if you’re looking at precip accum 12-18 hours into the run. Total precip 24+ hours out is a roll of the dice in these set ups. Lots will change overnight. This has a classic training set up across the coast (or further N) with outflow north as the wind shifts. Models may or may not have picked it up yet. No real way to say one way or the other, but just wait and see. Tomorrow will shed more light on what’s going on.

Have y’all gotten anything yet? I still haven’t had much here.

[davidiowx]

00z HRRR is the worst case scenario for you coastal and sw county folks, basically keeps the heaviest totals offshore on this run, but that line that just trains over the open water would essentially cut off moist flow, effectively preventing convection, thats why rain fall totals for those areas are way lower on this run

Sure if you’re looking at precip accum 12-18 hours into the run. Total precip 24+ hours out is a roll of the dice in these set ups. Lots will change overnight. This has a classic training set up across the coast (or further N) with outflow north as the wind shifts. Models may or may not have picked it up yet. No real way to say one way or the other, but just wait and see. Tomorrow will shed more light on what’s going on.

Have y’all gotten anything yet? I still haven’t had much here.

About 1/2” but the hail just missed us then hit our relatives up in the jersey village area. Curious to see how the low takes over (if it does) down in S. Texas. That would bring us steady rains we need.

[don]

Big difference between the HRRR and NAM models tonight.It will be interesting to see how everything plays out tomorrow.

[Stratton20]

Looks like some of the mesocale models are trying to linger some heavy rain through Saturday, potentially upping the flooding threat a bit more

[jasons2k]

I don’t understand when there are so many warnings, but no watch box…

[Cpv17]

I don’t understand when there are so many warnings, but no watch box…

Been like that all day/night. Reports of hail all over the place.

[Stratton20]

This is going to be a longgggg night

[DoctorMu]

We're about to get entrained. Ugh.

Go south or north!

Preferably south so our friends in Houston get more action.

[DoctorMu]

It's a NAM Slam!

[DoctorMu]

We're getting firehosed. Not much in Houston. Rainfall amounts may really start piling up on the morning.

[djmike]

So much for all that rain for Houston and coastal Texas. Looks like its all going to stay west of us. NWS lowered my chance of rain from 90 to 60 for today. We will see.

[Cromagnum]

I hate to say bust this early, but looks like the way north models won.

[don]

Remember things are not suppose to really get started in the central and southern counties until tonight into Friday. We already knew and expected the northern counties would be getting most of the action right now. I mentioned this yesterday afternoon how things look to play out.

Everyone should get a few inches from the event(with some localized areas getting 10+ inches). The main event for the northern counties starts tonight and continues tomorrow.With a secondary axis of heavy rain falling somewhere around the central/coastal counties Thursday night into Friday.There is a potential for a rain bomb tomorrow night into Friday morning somewhere.

[Cromagnum]

Oof. If it goes offshore like that, we're done.