September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[oleander]

Well two days in a row now the storms missed me by hair. I actually need some rain as it’s getting really dry around the neighborhood. The non-irrigated lawns are starting to look really bad/brown too.

Well you know Jason, feast or famine around here. We had a little here at Gulfgate..

I'm grateful for the 2" I got yesterday @ 290 and Antoine, we were getting a little crispy. Rainwater is a blessing (in moderation!)

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

A weak area of low pressure that developed over the SW Caribbean Sea late this week has moved inland over central America in the last 24 hours. Development is not likely as the system remains over the land areas of central America.

By early next week the system is expected to drift into the Bay of Campeche and possibly track toward the NW or N. Global model guidance is mixed on if any sort of surface low pressure will develop, although overnight guidance has suggested a bit of a better chance of some degree over development over the southern or southwestern Gulf by the early part of next week. A trough of low pressure that is expected to develop along the US east coast will likely keep mid level ridging anchored over the western US which potentially allows a door for anything in the southern Gulf to move northward next week. Upper level winds initially look unfavorable for development with westerly shear and it is unclear how far north this shear may extend.

Regardless of development, a large pool of tropical moisture will likely move into the southern Gulf this weekend and then begin to move northward mid to late next week.

NHC currently gives 91L a 30% chance of development over the next 5 days once the system reaches the Bay of Campeche.

[don]

Fwiw 0Z Euro shows tropical development now.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 031158
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
658 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Not a whole lot of changes from the previous TAF package for this
one. So far, CXO is the only site reporting fog this morning, and
given the current T/Td spreads, this should be the case for these
next few hours. Otherwise, activity is picking up over the coast-
al waters/counties at this time. Have started the mention of TSRA
for LBX/GLS and will be expecting this convection to spread north
through the afternoon. Should these current moisture fields hold,
the best chances for showers/thunderstorms are going to be mainly
south of IAH...but have included CXO as a precaution. Per models,
slightly drier air is expected to move into the area late tonight
with lower rain chances for tomorrow. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021/

SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...

Widely scattered activity is already starting up over the coastal
waters this morning and the trend is expected to continue through
the day. This convection will be fueled by elevated PWs (2-2.2"),
some low-level speed convergence and abundant daytime heating. As
per satellite estimates of all this the moisture, the higher POPs
should be generally along and south of I-10...although any devel-
opment making it further north (via colliding boundaries and what
not) should struggle if this PW pattern holds. Brief heavy rains/
gusty winds will be possible with the stronger storms. High temps
this afternoon will range from the mid/upper 90s for our northern
counties...lower/mid 90s to the south.

Convection should weaken/decrease in coverage as we head into the
evening hours (and lose heating). Otherwise, mostly quiet weather
for tonight...with only some overnight/early morning fog possible
across portions of our northern counties.

While this general large-scale pattern remains in place into tom-
orrow/Sat (i.e. broad upper ridge centered more across the middle
Mississippi River valley with an active easterly flow aloft), the
short-range models are showing a slightly quieter Sat (as the PWs
fall a bit). But that being said, will hold onto some low diurnal
POPs for tomorrow. 41

LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

Little change has been made to the long term forecast. Still
looking at a warm/hot and dry Sunday for a majority of the area
with mid level ridging in place. Cannot totally rule out
isolated afternoon shower and thunderstorm development, but the
vast majority of the area will stay dry. Most inland locations
will see highs in the mid to upper 90s, and a spot or two could
top out at 100. Much of the first half of next week will see our
area return to mainly diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm
chances as we lie on the eastern fringes of ridging out west
and general trofiness out east. The increase in rain chances
and associated clouds should help to shave a degree or two off
the afternoon highs.

[tireman4]

What the NWS says about the Gulf...

We`ll also continue to monitor the southwestern Gulf waters for
possible tropical development (similar to yesterday, NHC`s 1 AM
CDT Tropical Weather Outlook has formation chance at only 20%
over the next five days). Moisture associated with this system
could eventually end up working its way into the central and
northern Gulf, and any tropical organization (depending on its
strength and and especially its location) could result in some
forecast changes for our area. The peak of the hurricane season
is coming, so please continue to keep an eye on the latest
available Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC. 42

[Pas_Bon]

Yay. Make it stop.

[jasons2k]

It eff-+%!! figures the first time it rains in a month is a few minutes after the concrete is in. They are scrambling to cover.

[Stratton20]

12z GEFS ensemble run is all over the place

[Cpv17]

12z GEFS ensemble run is all over the place

There’s an east camp and a west camp. Where have we seen this before? Lol can’t remember that storms name but man it sure was interesting to track and gave forecasters fits. Euro was Texas and GFS was Florida. GFS was right.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 031703
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1203 PM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021

.AVIATION...
Thin band of shra & iso tsra situated just north of I-10 will
continue drifting north. Moisture availability is lower as you
head north of CXO, but still anticipate some iso/sct precip coverage
in the CLL/UTS terminals this afternoon. Further south or I-10,
plentiful sunshine up to this point should allow for destabilization.
Highest moisture values located in this general area...and with
the aid of sea/baybreeze should allow some convection to get going
in the not too distant future. Like the previous few days,
primary issue will be 20-35mph gusts and brief heavy downpours
near the strongest cells. Precip should dissipate this evening.
VFR conditions should prevail outside of any stronger cells.
Narrow wedge of moisture from the metro area southeast to GLS and
offshore may allow for some iso-sct daytime precip on Sat, but
overall expect less coverage than today. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 75 97 76 98 / 30 10 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 95 77 97 76 97 / 50 10 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 93 81 91 82 92 / 20 20 20 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

[don]

12Z Euro shows tc activity in the northeast gulf like the GFS now also fwiw.

[jasons2k]

Got a decent storm here. We needed the rain. Fortunately the concrete crew got everything covered, and they are resuming cleanup. Close call! Hey at least now that it’s cooler the concrete will cure slower. A blessing in the end.

[weatherguy425]

12Z operational ECMWF now favors consolidation on the northern end of the wave and the trough catches it; a north-central Gulf Coast impact on this run.

[Texaspirate11]

Just dont let it go to Louisiana

[sambucol]

Just dont let it go to Louisiana

I agree.

[Stratton20]

So this runs pretty much means anyone from Texas to Florida needs to be on watch lol, so much spread

[weatherguy425]

12Z operational ECMWF now favors consolidation on the northern end of the wave and the trough catches it; a north-central Gulf Coast impact on this run.

[Stratton20]

So lets say the consolidation of 91L *IF* it happens, lets say it happens more on the southern part of the disturbance, how wpuld this effect its track? Would it potentially miss being picked up by the trough?

[weatherguy425]

So lets say the consolidation of 91L *IF* it happens, lets say it happens more on the southern part of the disturbance, how wpuld this effect its track? Would it potentially miss being picked up by the trough?

It’s possible, but not easy to miss a deepening trough.

[Stratton20]

Even the 12Z Euro members are significantly spread apart, 1 cluster goes to Texas and the other goes toward the NE Gulf