Yes lol that’s what I was hinting at yesterday.Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:05 am So now its looking like the front may stall to the north and not even make it here
September 2020:
It’s better for us anyway that the front will stall out so we can get some much needed rains. If it pushed through we would probably have some really dry weather behind it.
I picked-up another .51”today. The grass, trees and shrubs are about the greenest I’ve seen them. The leaves might be beautiful this fall. An early cold snap would help.
Finally got a little rain yesterday. Like 5 minutes worth 3 separate times. With any luck this storm coming in from the south will produce more than just thunder.
Edit: nope. Brief, and I do mean brief, rain as the storm split in two just minutes from me and went around.
Edit: nope. Brief, and I do mean brief, rain as the storm split in two just minutes from me and went around.
Last edited by Cromagnum on Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:32 am, edited 2 times in total.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4584
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 081123
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2020
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
In a broad sense, the forecast is pretty well on track, albeit a
bit early with a thunderstorm in the vicinity of LBX and some
fog at CXO. Have modified timing somewhat, and while it`s pretty
likely that we will have scattered showers and storms about for
most of the day, it`s hard to pin down when specific terminals may
be impacted directly. Expect amendments/future TAF cycles to
better attempt to nail this timing down. Beyond that, expect
showers to begin to crop back up again near dawn tomorrow,
particularly in the west and near the coast.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 350 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2020/...
.DISCUSSION...
The main question of the forecast grapples with the nature of the
on-again, off-again cold front for tomorrow. After a strong
guidance consensus of a solid cold front switched back to a
scenario of "no front", some of the guidance again suggests a
front will make it at least partially into our area. Since the
guidance making this switch tends to handle shallow cold air
masses a little better, we`ve gone ahead and made a forecast with
a front pushing into the area from the northwest before stalling
and washing out. This will get at least some of us a short break
from summery conditions before those return for the end of this
week and early next week.
.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...
In the immediate forecast, satellite imagery depicts an area of
cloudiness and radar shows showers moving in from the southwest
from the influence of a small shortwave trough. Waters are already
beginning over the Gulf off of Matagorda Bay, and in the coming
hours, we should see things start to fill in over land. These
showers and storms should carry on through most of the day - and
while no one spot should expect a complete, day-long washout,
there will likely be rain falling somewhere in our area of
responsibility in Southeast Texas until this evening.
While it`s hard to pick out from the main frontal zone, there`s a
hint of one more small midlevel vort max coming across the area in
advance of the front, so rain chances tomorrow should again start
earlier than one might expect, given that the front should hold
off on entering our area until late tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow
evening (if at all...but let`s not think about that right now).
There is a lot of fuzziness in the model guidance now that we seem
to be returning to a divergent solution as to whether or not the
front makes it into our area. Because of that, I try not to stray
too far from a very blended forecast (several of my components in
my personal blend tonight are blends themselves!) but I do weight
things with additional contributions from regional guidance that
tends to be known for handling shallow cold air masses better than
the global models.
We are still very much in the shoulder season for frontal
passages, and almost by definition means the incoming airmass will
be shallow. Considering there is more consensus for a building
midlevel ridge, and poor/non-existent cold advection even down at
850 mb, I feel more confident saying that any frontal passage will
involve one of these types of shallow air masses or nothing at
all. I wish I could say I were brave enough to go "Full NAM", but
with the uncertainty involved, I think it wisest to hedge a little
bit, and hold back on just how much this incoming airmass I am
forecasting will be able to push into Southeast Texas tomorrow
night. This forecast has EXTREMELY high bust potential in either
direction. I know which way I`m hoping for...
.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...
That once promising cold front may be limping into Southeast Texas
Thursday morning from the northwest. While it may not be the end of
the oppressive heat it once looked like, it may still bring some
brief relief for the northwestern portions of the region on Thursday
before it stalls/weakens. Skewed towards the NAM in the forecast on
Thursday in regards to the dew points and wind shift due to it
typically having a better handle on these really shallow fronts
compared to some of the global models. And the shallow nature of the
front is quite apparent in the frontogenesis fields in the NAM: 1000-
850mb shows some fairly strong frontogenesis reaching College
Station overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, but there`s
barely a signal of a front in the 850-700mb layer. And unfortunately
this does not mean that we can expect anything more than a northerly
wind shift through the day on Thursday and some lower dew points
across the northwestern portion of the area. Can also expect a
chance of showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours on
Thursday for the Northern Brazos with some showers and
thunderstorms. And if the NAM is overestimating the remaining
strength of this front and the GFS/EC end up being correct then
there will not be much of any signal of the front anywhere in the
CWA.
The associated upper level low that will be developing over the Four
Corners region in the coming day or so will be ejecting into the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region through the weekend bringing
the first taste of winter for those areas. Meanwhile we will still
be living in the dead of summer. PWATs this weekend through the
start of next week will be in the 1.75 to 2 inch range providing
plenty of moisture for more daily afternoon showers and
thunderstorms over area that we have become accustomed to the past
few days.
Daytime high temperatures will be in the low 90s on Thursday with
the BCS area maybe not getting out of the upper 80s if the front is
able to limp that far southeast. High temperatures return to the low
to mid 90s across the area Friday through the weekend. Lows continue
to be in the low to mid 70s for everywhere but the coast where lows
in the low 80s remain likely.
.MARINE...
Winds in the offshore waters are near SCEC threshold very early
this morning per the Freeport Buoy, but do expect them to stay
below 15 knots sustained and should calm down modestly through
the day. Could be a different story tonight as winds should be
stronger - as the forecast is now, would need a SCEC, but will
hold off and let the day shift make the call on this as more hi-
res, short-range guidance comes into range.
Wind forecast gets very tricky tomorrow as much depends on just
how deeply into the area the long-advertised cold front is able to
make it. The current forecast? Not too hopeful for the waters,
though we should see winds back to easterly, and perhaps even
northeasterly in response to subtle troughing near the front. Have
toned down the winds even a little bit more from the previous
forecast. Look for these winds to persist into the weekend, and
potentially into early next week. Weather should also be fairly
active, with multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms
on the waters.
.CLIMATE...
The break from setting records at Galveston did not last long.
After three days off, Scholes Field tied its daily record for the
record high minimum temperature. Its mark of 83 degrees matched
the previous record going back to 2016. At least this is only a
daily record, and not restarting the string of days
setting/matching the all-time record. Progress!
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 74 89 69 85 / 50 30 40 30 40
Houston (IAH) 91 76 91 76 94 / 50 30 30 20 30
Galveston (GLS) 91 82 90 82 90 / 40 40 40 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Fowler
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs
CLIMATE...Luchs/Fowler
FXUS64 KHGX 081123
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2020
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
In a broad sense, the forecast is pretty well on track, albeit a
bit early with a thunderstorm in the vicinity of LBX and some
fog at CXO. Have modified timing somewhat, and while it`s pretty
likely that we will have scattered showers and storms about for
most of the day, it`s hard to pin down when specific terminals may
be impacted directly. Expect amendments/future TAF cycles to
better attempt to nail this timing down. Beyond that, expect
showers to begin to crop back up again near dawn tomorrow,
particularly in the west and near the coast.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 350 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2020/...
.DISCUSSION...
The main question of the forecast grapples with the nature of the
on-again, off-again cold front for tomorrow. After a strong
guidance consensus of a solid cold front switched back to a
scenario of "no front", some of the guidance again suggests a
front will make it at least partially into our area. Since the
guidance making this switch tends to handle shallow cold air
masses a little better, we`ve gone ahead and made a forecast with
a front pushing into the area from the northwest before stalling
and washing out. This will get at least some of us a short break
from summery conditions before those return for the end of this
week and early next week.
.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...
In the immediate forecast, satellite imagery depicts an area of
cloudiness and radar shows showers moving in from the southwest
from the influence of a small shortwave trough. Waters are already
beginning over the Gulf off of Matagorda Bay, and in the coming
hours, we should see things start to fill in over land. These
showers and storms should carry on through most of the day - and
while no one spot should expect a complete, day-long washout,
there will likely be rain falling somewhere in our area of
responsibility in Southeast Texas until this evening.
While it`s hard to pick out from the main frontal zone, there`s a
hint of one more small midlevel vort max coming across the area in
advance of the front, so rain chances tomorrow should again start
earlier than one might expect, given that the front should hold
off on entering our area until late tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow
evening (if at all...but let`s not think about that right now).
There is a lot of fuzziness in the model guidance now that we seem
to be returning to a divergent solution as to whether or not the
front makes it into our area. Because of that, I try not to stray
too far from a very blended forecast (several of my components in
my personal blend tonight are blends themselves!) but I do weight
things with additional contributions from regional guidance that
tends to be known for handling shallow cold air masses better than
the global models.
We are still very much in the shoulder season for frontal
passages, and almost by definition means the incoming airmass will
be shallow. Considering there is more consensus for a building
midlevel ridge, and poor/non-existent cold advection even down at
850 mb, I feel more confident saying that any frontal passage will
involve one of these types of shallow air masses or nothing at
all. I wish I could say I were brave enough to go "Full NAM", but
with the uncertainty involved, I think it wisest to hedge a little
bit, and hold back on just how much this incoming airmass I am
forecasting will be able to push into Southeast Texas tomorrow
night. This forecast has EXTREMELY high bust potential in either
direction. I know which way I`m hoping for...
.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...
That once promising cold front may be limping into Southeast Texas
Thursday morning from the northwest. While it may not be the end of
the oppressive heat it once looked like, it may still bring some
brief relief for the northwestern portions of the region on Thursday
before it stalls/weakens. Skewed towards the NAM in the forecast on
Thursday in regards to the dew points and wind shift due to it
typically having a better handle on these really shallow fronts
compared to some of the global models. And the shallow nature of the
front is quite apparent in the frontogenesis fields in the NAM: 1000-
850mb shows some fairly strong frontogenesis reaching College
Station overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, but there`s
barely a signal of a front in the 850-700mb layer. And unfortunately
this does not mean that we can expect anything more than a northerly
wind shift through the day on Thursday and some lower dew points
across the northwestern portion of the area. Can also expect a
chance of showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours on
Thursday for the Northern Brazos with some showers and
thunderstorms. And if the NAM is overestimating the remaining
strength of this front and the GFS/EC end up being correct then
there will not be much of any signal of the front anywhere in the
CWA.
The associated upper level low that will be developing over the Four
Corners region in the coming day or so will be ejecting into the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region through the weekend bringing
the first taste of winter for those areas. Meanwhile we will still
be living in the dead of summer. PWATs this weekend through the
start of next week will be in the 1.75 to 2 inch range providing
plenty of moisture for more daily afternoon showers and
thunderstorms over area that we have become accustomed to the past
few days.
Daytime high temperatures will be in the low 90s on Thursday with
the BCS area maybe not getting out of the upper 80s if the front is
able to limp that far southeast. High temperatures return to the low
to mid 90s across the area Friday through the weekend. Lows continue
to be in the low to mid 70s for everywhere but the coast where lows
in the low 80s remain likely.
.MARINE...
Winds in the offshore waters are near SCEC threshold very early
this morning per the Freeport Buoy, but do expect them to stay
below 15 knots sustained and should calm down modestly through
the day. Could be a different story tonight as winds should be
stronger - as the forecast is now, would need a SCEC, but will
hold off and let the day shift make the call on this as more hi-
res, short-range guidance comes into range.
Wind forecast gets very tricky tomorrow as much depends on just
how deeply into the area the long-advertised cold front is able to
make it. The current forecast? Not too hopeful for the waters,
though we should see winds back to easterly, and perhaps even
northeasterly in response to subtle troughing near the front. Have
toned down the winds even a little bit more from the previous
forecast. Look for these winds to persist into the weekend, and
potentially into early next week. Weather should also be fairly
active, with multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms
on the waters.
.CLIMATE...
The break from setting records at Galveston did not last long.
After three days off, Scholes Field tied its daily record for the
record high minimum temperature. Its mark of 83 degrees matched
the previous record going back to 2016. At least this is only a
daily record, and not restarting the string of days
setting/matching the all-time record. Progress!
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 74 89 69 85 / 50 30 40 30 40
Houston (IAH) 91 76 91 76 94 / 50 30 30 20 30
Galveston (GLS) 91 82 90 82 90 / 40 40 40 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Fowler
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs
CLIMATE...Luchs/Fowler
It’s still early but today may not be my day. The area keeps getting tainted with outflow and clouds, and the temp has dropped some. I need to see some more sun or I don’t think I will get much today.
Looking like a pretty good band or two are getting ready to roll north over the area though. Have to see if it diminishes too much of course.
-
Stormlover2020
- Posts: 457
- Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:04 pm
- Contact:
I knew that cold front wouldn’t pan out
We're going to get a few sprinkles, but the main energy is sprinting north of CLL.
At least it's not 100°F! Cloudy and less stress on the A/C.
At least it's not 100°F! Cloudy and less stress on the A/C.
Nope. Rosharon rain shield has been set to max for weeks now and does not look to be letting anything through anytime soon.
Man, that CPC forecast today looks great! Hope it pans out.
-
Texaspirate11
- Posts: 1278
- Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
- Contact:
Sorry cold wx fans
from h/gx nws
.DISCUSSION...
The main question of the forecast grapples with the nature of the
on-again, off-again cold front for tomorrow. After a strong
guidance consensus of a solid cold front switched back to a
scenario of "no front", some of the guidance again suggests a
front will make it at least partially into our area. Since the
guidance making this switch tends to handle shallow cold air
masses a little better, we`ve gone ahead and made a forecast with
a front pushing into the area from the northwest before stalling
and washing out. This will get at least some of us a short break
from summery conditions before those return for the end of this
week and early next week.
from h/gx nws
.DISCUSSION...
The main question of the forecast grapples with the nature of the
on-again, off-again cold front for tomorrow. After a strong
guidance consensus of a solid cold front switched back to a
scenario of "no front", some of the guidance again suggests a
front will make it at least partially into our area. Since the
guidance making this switch tends to handle shallow cold air
masses a little better, we`ve gone ahead and made a forecast with
a front pushing into the area from the northwest before stalling
and washing out. This will get at least some of us a short break
from summery conditions before those return for the end of this
week and early next week.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
From this afternoon’s discussion:
Our main interest in the immediate term continues to be the surface cold front currently draped across the central CONUS, with the latest WPC surface analysis placing the boundary just south of Amarillo where a 43-degree drop in temperature has been observed in the past 24 hours. Unfortunately for those who are tired of we summertime heat and humidity, we do not anticipate similar impacts as the front approaches SE Texas late Wednesday and into Thursday.
ECMWF & GFS 12Z runs continue to stall the advancing boundary to the northwest of the CWA, keeping things generally hot and humid across the area for the foreseeable future.
The NAM continues to be the most aggressive of the model solutions, taking the advancing boundary into the northwest zones on Thursday. Given NAM`s greater vertical resolution, was more confident in this solution given the shallow nature of the front (frontogenesis signal continues to only be present in the sfc-850 layer). As a result, the 12Z run was heavily incorporated into the forecast package this afternoon. The boundary should arrive on the doorstep of the Brazos Valley on Thursday morning. A northeasterly wind shift behind the weakly advancing boundary should allow for some locations to dip into the upper 60s/low 70s for overnight lows with mid-60s dew points. These impacts are unlikely to be felt across the metro area, where we`ll still see lows in the upper 70s to low 80s.
In terms of precipitation, we once again expect to see the development of showers and storms tomorrow as onshore flow continues to provide SE TX with ample low-level moisture. Rainfall and widespread cloud cover may once again moderate daytime highs tomorrow, and have decreased values a couple of degrees from national blend products as a result.
Our main interest in the immediate term continues to be the surface cold front currently draped across the central CONUS, with the latest WPC surface analysis placing the boundary just south of Amarillo where a 43-degree drop in temperature has been observed in the past 24 hours. Unfortunately for those who are tired of we summertime heat and humidity, we do not anticipate similar impacts as the front approaches SE Texas late Wednesday and into Thursday.
ECMWF & GFS 12Z runs continue to stall the advancing boundary to the northwest of the CWA, keeping things generally hot and humid across the area for the foreseeable future.
The NAM continues to be the most aggressive of the model solutions, taking the advancing boundary into the northwest zones on Thursday. Given NAM`s greater vertical resolution, was more confident in this solution given the shallow nature of the front (frontogenesis signal continues to only be present in the sfc-850 layer). As a result, the 12Z run was heavily incorporated into the forecast package this afternoon. The boundary should arrive on the doorstep of the Brazos Valley on Thursday morning. A northeasterly wind shift behind the weakly advancing boundary should allow for some locations to dip into the upper 60s/low 70s for overnight lows with mid-60s dew points. These impacts are unlikely to be felt across the metro area, where we`ll still see lows in the upper 70s to low 80s.
In terms of precipitation, we once again expect to see the development of showers and storms tomorrow as onshore flow continues to provide SE TX with ample low-level moisture. Rainfall and widespread cloud cover may once again moderate daytime highs tomorrow, and have decreased values a couple of degrees from national blend products as a result.
Last edited by jasons2k on Tue Sep 08, 2020 9:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Ugh. It only rained yesterday for the first time in weeks and mosquitoes have exploded somehow.
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