August 2020:

[Stormlover2020]

97l will be Mexico to sw la

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday morning tropical update from Jeff:

Tropical waves continue westward over the Caribbean Sea and mid Atlantic Ocean.

97L:
The tropical wave remains as well defined and sharp wave axis moving westward into the central Caribbean Sea this morning. There is little indication that any sort of low level center has formed with this wave and convection remains disorganized and scattered within and around the wave axis. Little development of this feature is expected today or even on Thursday, but as the wave reaches slightly more favorable conditions on Friday in the western Caribbean Sea, development chances will begin to increase and NHC is currently indicating an 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation with this wave over the next 5 days…mainly in the western Caribbean Sea.

Over the weekend into early next week, model guidance continues to greatly divergence on what will eventually happen with 97L. The large scale trough currently over the US Gulf coast providing Texas with its hot yet much drier air mass will begin to break down by late this weekend as the sub-tropical ridge builds westward from the SW Atlantic into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. By early next week the mammoth western US ridge begins to weaken slightly allowing the remains of the trough along the Gulf coast to move westward over coastal Texas and form a shear axis or weakness along its SE flank. Over the weekend 97L will likely be over the northwest Caribbean Sea or entering the southern Gulf of Mexico on a general WNW to NW movement. How quickly 97L develops and moves will determine the steering pattern over the Gulf of Mexico. A faster and stronger system would likely track more toward the north sooner and potentially toward the central or NE Gulf of Mexico similar to the HWRF guidance while a weaker and slower system would likely track more toward the west/northwest Gulf. Will nod toward the weaker and slower system for now and bring a tropical system into the western Gulf by the early to mid part of next week.

While the GFS and ECWMF show little development with 97L, the CMC, ICON, HWRF, and NAVGEM show significant development once over the Gulf of Mexico.

97L should be monitored closely over the next several days.

98L:
Satellite images suggest that 98L remains elongated and attached to the monsoon trough over the central tropical Atlantic. While the feature has gradually become better organized over the last 24 hours, it still lacks a defined low level center and convection has been modest recently. 98L is moving toward the west south of a deep layer ridge of high pressure over the mid Atlantic Ocean. This deep layer ridge is expected to build westward toward the Bahamas over the weekend forcing 98L on a general west to WNW motion for the next 5 days. It is interesting that much of the model support for 98L vanished yesterday, especially given the well defined look on satellite images. Models are likely struggling with the complex genesis of 98L, but overall this wave should eventually develop as it moves westward. NHC currently indicates 98L has a 90% chance of development.

After 5 days there are various model solutions an track/intensity potential with 98L and many avenues that the system could take. At this point it is best to allow a defined low level center to form before speculating on the overall longer range forecast. With that said, high pressure building westward across the Atlantic north of 98L will likely prevent any significant northward motion through days 5-6.

New Tropical Wave:
A strong tropical wave will emerge off the African coast today and this feature has a 20% chance of development over the next 5 days as it moves westward.

[Rip76]

Train comin’

[DoctorMu]

I’m hoping 97L isn’t a Harvey type thing. Same week.

I'm hoping it is, much better than constant sunshine that ends up bringing drought.

Devastating floods are better than being hot and dry? Okay.....

DFTT

[txbear]

I get that the Internet forums are a haven for trolls. But I’ll never really understand trolling on a weather forum. That’s a level of bored and in mom’s basement I wish to never see.

Ignore the troll.

[unome]

great tropics update video from Michael Ventrice

https://www.twitch.tv/videos/715082188

[Texaspirate11]

Levi from Tropical Tidbits also has great videos each night.

Does anyone think Genevieve from the EPAC and her energy will disrupt 97L or shear it?

[Cpv17]

Levi from Tropical Tidbits also has great videos each night.

Does anyone think Genevieve from the EPAC and her energy will disrupt 97L or shear it?

That’s a tough call because Genevieve could be out of the picture by the time 97L gets into the Gulf. It’s really expected to slow down. It could possibly sit in the western Caribbean for 2 days before it gets into the Gulf. The latest 12z Euro brings this to the mid TX coast as a strong wave or possible depression.

[srainhoutx]

Be careful with those suggested intensity output by the global models. They've been unreliable many days out and have really struggled with genesis this year. I suspect once RECON investigates, those models may offer more reasonable solutions in the days ahead. Don't let the models lull you into a false sense of "nothing to be concerned about".

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 191745
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1245 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions prevail yet again at the TAF sites. Some afternoon
fair weather cu will form in the afternoon but clear back out after
sunset. Winds will stay light with a mostly northerly to
northeasterly and coastal sites will veer southerly in the evening
with weak onshore flow. (Wait....is this the same discussion from
yesterday? Why yes....yes it is:) 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 437 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020/...





.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Wednesday]...
Eastern periphery of the upper ridge which has allowed for our dry
northerly flow aloft erodes and allows a portion of the trof to
the east to retrograde into the area. By Sunday, guidance is in
good agreement in depicting a tropical disturbance emerging off
the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche...then continue heading to
the wnw toward the western Gulf coast. Locally, the associated
moisture levels and rain chances should climb during the early
parts of the week. As is the case in the longer term forecasts,
there is almost always considerable uncertainty pinning down the
evolution & specific details with currently undeveloped systems,
but we are getting into the time of year where its always prudent
to keep an eye on the tropics. 47


.MARINE...
Light winds & low seas anticipated for the next several days. A
more prominent se/e flow should resume along with slowly building
seas this weekend into early next week. Weather could potentially
become unsettled heading into early next week dependent on the
evolution of a tropical disturbance expected to cross the Yucatan
into the Bay of Campeche late this weekend. Mariners should keep
an eye on the latest forecasts. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 70 96 72 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 74 96 74 97 75 / 0 0 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 82 93 81 93 82 / 10 10 20 20 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...35

[Scott747]

Go figure. 12z ensemble support is a little weaker for 97l but has increased with 98l making a deeper run into the Gulf.

Tomorrow should begin to bring some confidence in both systems with recon scheduled for both.

[tireman4]

Agreed Scott. Many factors coming into play as we go into the late week/ upcoming weekend

[Stormlover2020]

Until we have a center models will stay drunk 🥴

[Cpv17]

Until we have a center models will stay drunk 🥴

I’m saying Brownsville to NOLA with this one.

[Texaspirate11]

i think 98L will be Florida's headache

[Cpv17]

i think 98L will be Florida's headache

I have no idea what 98L will do. 57 thinks it’s going towards Bama or the FL panhandle but no one can accurately predict what it’s going to do that far out.

[Texaspirate11]

i think 98L will be Florida's headache

I have no idea what 98L will do. 57 thinks it’s going towards Bama or the FL panhandle but no one can accurately predict what it’s going to do that far out.

Still East of us

[DoctorMu]

Heck, 97L guidance for landfall runs from Tampico to Pensacola

98 should rub along the Cuban coast, then possibly north, but far too early to tell.

Solutions are all over the place. From almost nothing - GFS to a NAVGEM double barrel shotgun wedding in the GoM.

[srainhoutx]

Tropical Depression 13 forms in the Atlantic...(98L)

[davidiowx]

Just don’t pull an Ike.. please