OCTOBER 2018 - Stormy Halloween

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 151614
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1114 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.UPDATE...
The cold front is now coming across the coastal counties at this
hour...58 F in Palacios with a 20 knot north wind and 86 F in
Galveston with an 8 knot southeast breeze. From shorts to jacket
weather within just a few hours as there is quite the temperature
gradient across the CWA; 49 F in College Station and 86 F in
Galveston. Interesting pre-frontal weather through Brazoria
County this morning as a thunderstorm cell just north of Angleton
displayed enough rotation to warrant a tornado warning (funnel
cloud was reported with no tornado damage). Also, in counter
intuitive fashion, clustering thunderstorms over Harris County
behind the cold front have produced copious lightning strikes and
high 15 minute rainfall rates over the south and east side of
downtown this past hour. TransStar cameras have shown some areas
around the 610 loop to either have significant ponding or high
water over various entrance and exit ramps. A Flood Advisory is in
effect through 1130 AM. Precipitation will become more
showery/drizzly going into the afternoon with an occasional clap
of thunder heard as there is enough mid-level instability to
produce elevated thunder. Not much warming, if any at all, due to
the rain and overcast...many communities have already reached
their daily maximum temperatures as the front approached them this
morning. Overcast, cool and dreary continues in the short term
with high chances for very light precipitation...Tuesday will be
raw with very sluggish warming of just a few degrees upon morning
minimum temperatures. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 52 47 50 48 56 / 90 70 80 40 30
Houston (IAH) 76 57 60 52 62 / 80 50 60 30 20
Galveston (GLS) 86 66 70 60 67 / 100 60 60 30 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20
to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20
to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...31

[srainhoutx]

Temperatures are running a good 4 to 6 degrees below what the overnight guidance suggested for the areas N of I-10. Most of the guidance missed the round of very heavy rainfall as well.

[unome]

they have a mobile site: https://traffic.houstontranstar.org/lay ... ile_g.aspx

Harris County OHSEM

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 151739
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1239 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.AVIATION...
A very messy 24 hours is on tap for all TAF sites. A cold front
has crossed the area and a mix of IFR/MVFR ceilings has filled in
behind the front. Light rain with embedded thunderstorms courtesy
of isentropic upglide will continue for much of the afternoon and
tonight. Timing the impulses that generate the precip will be
tough so generally will start with VCSH/VCSH and TEMPO as
necessary. North winds will stay moderate to strong the TAF
cycle. 43

&&

[djmike]

Still patiently waiting here in Beaumont. boo

[Cpv17]

The coldest anomalies with this front appear to be west of our area. The further east you go, probably the less of an impact you’ll have. There’s over a 10 degree difference between Austin and Houston right now and that’s quite a disparity for the two cities only being a couple hours away from each other. Correct me if I’m wrong though, but that’s just how it appears to me atm.

Also, the Euro is crazy wet for Texas next week with an EPAC recurve into the state.

[srainhoutx]

Not seeing changes regarding our sensible weather into the Extended Range. It does appear we may have to deal with another re curving EPAC Tropical System and the next one could be further S across Texas suggesting a least a potential of heavier rainfall closer to home. The best chances for watching the EPAC disturbance will not occur before next week. Another surge of colder air arrives late this coming weekend and as of today that Cold Front looks much stronger than the current one. Chilly air looks to remain in place well into the Extended with above normal rain chances. The very long range suggests more of the same with cooler than average temperatures and above normal rainfall chances.

[Cpv17]

Not seeing changes regarding our sensible weather into the Extended Range. It does appear we may have to deal with another re curving EPAC Tropical System and the next one could be further S across Texas suggesting a least a potential of heavier rainfall closer to home. The best chances for watching the EPAC disturbance will not occur before next week. Another surge of colder air arrives late this coming weekend and as of today that Cold Front looks much stronger than the current one. Chilly air looks to remain in place well into the Extended with above normal rain chances. The very long range suggests more of the same with cooler than average temperatures and above normal rainfall chances.

You say this next cold front will be stronger than the current one, but I don’t see anything on the models that backs that up so what are you seeing that makes you say that? I don’t see any pinks showing up for the next front like I do this one. Although those pinks are more over west Texas than our area right now anyway.

[cperk]

Temperatures are running a good 4 to 6 degrees below what the overnight guidance suggested for the areas N of I-10. Most of the guidance missed the round of very heavy rainfall as well.

My weather station is reporting 55.4 degrees.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Feels amazing outside!

[Texaspirate11]

Saw snow in Minneapolis on Sunday and felt 39 degree weather...I am ready for summer.

[srainhoutx]

The Euro Weeklies suggest late October and Halloween could be unseasonably chilly across our Region. Stepping down...

[snowman65]

The Euro Weeklies suggest late October and Halloween could be unseasonably chilly across our Region. Stepping down...

Bring it!!

[djmike]

FINALLY! Now this is the kind of weather im talk’n bout! Finally arrived here in Beaumont. Line of storms broke apart but the cooler weather makes up for the no rain. Will be a light mist today as temps continue to drop so not complaining one bit. Love it! Ready for the next big on Sunday! COME ON DOWN!!!

[snowman65]

I just read something about the current snow pack in the US is the largest in over a decade for this time of year. I'm assuming that will help keep the cold air cold this year as fronts make their way to our area?

[jasons2k]

That was fun for a day. Ready for summer to be back now.

[srainhoutx]

Bryan/College Station and locations to the ENE are under a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall today. I see that the Hill Country and the Highland Lakes are under the gun again with Heavy Rainfall. The Llano River continues to flood and is over roadways/bridges near Kingsland. The rest of the work week looks very unsettled as a series of disturbances rotate across the Region with some potential of cyclogenis along the NW Gulf Coast as they move NE to ENE into Louisiana and the SE.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
LLANO COUNTY OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
817 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE LLANO
COUNTY OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THERE IS A MAJOR FLOOD ONGOING ALONG THE LLANO RIVER WITH NEAR
RECORD HEIGHTS. ALL ARE ADVISED TO EVACUATE WITHIN ONE QUARTER
MILE OF THE RIVER. NEWS STATIONS ARE BROADCASTING SHELTER
LOCATIONS.

[Kludge]

The 9.6" I received since noon yesterday brings my 3-day total to over 23" here in northern Grimes County.

...And apparently lots more to come.

[tireman4]

Cool Tuesday...some records may fall...