November 2015: Ending Cold & Rainy

[Cromagnum]

Reports coming in that the Halliburton plant up in Pampa, TX was completely leveled by the mile wide tornado that hit last night.

[srainhoutx]

New Mesoscale Discussion is coming for SE, E, NE Texas and Western Louisiana for a new Tornado Watch potential.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1965
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0824 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX / WRN LA / SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 171424Z - 171530Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS MORNING. A NEW
WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 15Z.

DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR DATA INDICATE EXTENSIVE TSTM ACTIVITY
PRESENT AS OF 14Z AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH ERN TX.
DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...12Z RAOBS AND CURRENT WSR-88D VAD DATA
INDICATE A VERY MOIST AND ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPE
OF AROUND 1000 J PER KG/ AIR MASS WHICH COINCIDES WITH A KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT FEATURING A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. AS SUCH...THE
SETUP WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE LATER THIS MORNING AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
FURTHER WARMS/DESTABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

..MEAD.. 11/17/2015


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

[tireman4]

XUS64 KHGX 171132
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
532 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN AREA OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE HI RES ARW/NMM
HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB AND WILL USE A TEXAS TECH WRF/ARW/NMM
BLEND. PREV TAF PACKAGE DID A GREAT JOB LINING UP THE TIMING OF
TSRA SO NO CHANGES THERE. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PCPN STARTING TO RAMP UP ALONG THE DRY LINE OUT WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST...STORMS
ALSO CONTINUING ALONG THE COLD FRONT (WHICH IS ALSO STEADILY MOV-
ING EAST THIS MORNING) AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE DRY
LINE A BIT LATER. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSER EYE ON THESE
CELLS OUT WEST WITH WPC INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HOURLY RAIN-
FALL RATES UP TO 2" DUE TO TRAINING/CELL MERGERS. IN THE MEANTIME
NO REAL CHANGES WITH THE THINKING THAT THE SQUALL LINE IS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS AS IT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HRS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD PROGS NOW TRENDING A BIT MORE COOLER/WETTER
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE AGGRESSIVE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE JUST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FCST TO PRODUCE SCT PCPN FOR SAT. IN
ITS WAKE...MOS TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE ADJ-
USTED GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS HOLDS UP AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES. 41

MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAK THIS MORNING AS DEEP
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 00Z. WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE ONCE THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON BUT SEAS MAY TAKE A WHILE TO FULLY SUBSIDE.

A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE WNW-ESE THRU THE WATERS FROM THE LATE
MORNING THRU THE MID/LATE AFTN HOURS. ASSOCIATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AND MARINERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR LOCALLY
HIGH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. AN OFFSHORE WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE STORMS.

TIDES LEVELS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 1.50 FT ABOVE NORMAL. ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES ARE ENTERING LOW TIDE SO TOTAL WATER LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 3.0 FEET BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 48 70 49 72 / 100 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 50 73 49 75 / 100 20 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 57 71 60 73 / 90 40 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...43

[srainhoutx]

New Tornado Watch coming for portions of SE Texas. Stay Tuned for graphics.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
850 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

TRINITY TX-SAN JACINTO TX-WALKER TX-POLK TX-HOUSTON TX-
850 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TRINITY...NORTHEASTERN WALKER...
NORTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO...CENTRAL HOUSTON AND NORTHERN POLK COUNTIES
UNTIL 930 AM CST...

AT 849 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
AUSTONIO TO NEAR SEBASTOPOL TO NEAR POINT BLANK...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
APPLE SPRINGS...ONALASKA...CORRIGAN...GROVETON...POINT BLANK...
LOVELADY...KENNARD...SEVEN OAKS...SEBASTOPOL...MOSCOW...PENNINGTON
AND CENTRALIA.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

[srainhoutx]

New Tornado Watch will include most of SE Texas except Galveston and Brazoria Counties and those SW of Metro Houston until 4:00 PM CST. The Tornado Watch does include Harris , Fort Bend, Waller, Montgomery, Chambers, Liberty Counties.

[Katdaddy]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 545
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
850 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 850 AM UNTIL
400 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING
INTO AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
PORT ARTHUR TEXAS TO 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 543...WW 544...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
857 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 945 AM CST

* AT 854 AM CST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR LOVELADY TO NEAR SEBASTOPOL TO NEAR ONALASKA
TO POINT BLANK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THE GROUND IS WET AND
TREES STILL HAVE FOLIAGE...SO THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE TOPPLED TREES.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
APPLE SPRINGS...ONALASKA...CORRIGAN...GROVETON...POINT BLANK...
LOVELADY...KENNARD...SEVEN OAKS...SEBASTOPOL...MOSCOW...PENNINGTON
AND CENTRALIA.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
904 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

TRINITY TX-WALKER TX-SAN JACINTO TX-HOUSTON TX-
904 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL NOON CST

* AT 904 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
APPLE SPRINGS...TRINITY...GROVETON...RIVERSIDE...KENNARD...
SEBASTOPOL...PENNINGTON AND CENTRALIA.

[srainhoutx]

Flood Advisory issued to our West due to training thunderstorms.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
852 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

LAVACA TX-GONZALES TX-FAYETTE TX-
852 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LAVACA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
GONZALES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1145 AM CST

* AT 850 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE SMALL STREAM FLOODING. OVERFLOWING
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN WITH EARLIER
STORMS. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS AS HEAVY RAINFALL MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
GONZALES...YOAKUM...LA GRANGE...SCHULENBURG...HALLETTSVILLE...
SHINER...FLATONIA...MOULTON...SHELBY...NIXON...WAELDER...SMILEY...
FAYETTEVILLE...ROUND TOP...PALMETO...CHEAPSIDE...MULDOON...
CISTERN...CARMINE AND SWEET HOME.

[jasons2k]

Hard to believe our average low this time of year is 47. Next week is Thanksgiving and we havent even needed a light jacket yet this year. That's sad....

I was wearing shorts last night out with family. And *loved* it. I'll gladly take a short 6-week winter

Jeff was right about the wind. It is howling and gusting pretty good in these showers.

Also, I just checked PWATS and there is a circle of 2"+ centered over SE Texas. I would expect some flooding in the Houston area as the line moves into the deeper moisture.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for portions of SE TX until 400pm

The watch includes the counties of: Harris, Fort Bend, Waller, Montgomery, Chambers, Liberty, San Jacinto, Polk, and Walker.

Strong cold front slicing into SE TX with strong temperature gradient across the boundary. Temperature at College Station is 54 compared to mid 70’s east of the boundary. CRP sounding this morning came in fairly capped which appears to be limiting development over the SW portions of SE TX. Incoming cold front is helping to lift and erode the cap along with modest surface heating. Low level winds remain impressive across the region with SSE winds of 20-35mph which veer to SSW and SW in the mid levels. Plenty of wind shear for tornadoes if storms can actually develop through the capping inversion.

Rainfall starting to add up across our northern counties where cell training has been underway since around 400am this morning with radar indicated storm totals of 2-3 inches from southern Grimes County to Trinity County.

Significant temperature drop will move across SE TX early this afternoon with most locations falling quickly into the 50’s with strong NW winds of 25-35 mph.

[srainhoutx]

HGX continues Flood Warning for Trinity River from Riverside to Moss Bluff until further notice.

[srainhoutx]

Morning visible imagery clearly shows how powerful a storm system this has been. Heavy snow continues to fall at Taos and Red River Ski Areas in Northern New Mexico. Webcams at the base of Ski Taos suggest nearly 2 feet of fresh powder has fallen.

[srainhoutx]

Hard to believe our average low this time of year is 47. Next week is Thanksgiving and we havent even needed a light jacket yet this year. That's sad....

I was wearing shorts last night out with family. And *loved* it. I'll gladly take a short 6-week winter

Jeff was right about the wind. It is howling and gusting pretty good in these showers.

Also, I just checked PWATS and there is a circle of 2"+ centered over SE Texas. I would expect some flooding in the Houston area as the line moves into the deeper moisture.

Just looked at the Teleconnection Indices issued at 00Z for November 17th. Looks like a -EPO/+PNA Regime is forecast which typically means a much colder pattern is lurking around Thanksgiving into Early December. I expect a lot of run to run volatility with the various computer schemes during the next week or so. I also am becoming a bit concerned about Eastern Pacific tropical activity developing during the next week as yet another powerful Western trough organizes near California.

[Cromagnum]

Hard to believe our average low this time of year is 47. Next week is Thanksgiving and we havent even needed a light jacket yet this year. That's sad....

I was wearing shorts last night out with family. And *loved* it. I'll gladly take a short 6-week winter

Jeff was right about the wind. It is howling and gusting pretty good in these showers.

Also, I just checked PWATS and there is a circle of 2"+ centered over SE Texas. I would expect some flooding in the Houston area as the line moves into the deeper moisture.

I think most Houstonians would disagree with you. We already get 6 months of summer as it is, a hot steamy spring, dont get a fall to speak of, and barely have a winter.

[srainhoutx]

Bow echos structures beginning to develop across Eastern Austin and Western Waller Counties.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1019 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

TRINITY TX-WASHINGTON TX-WALLER TX-WALKER TX-MONTGOMERY TX-GRIMES TX-
1019 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CST

* AT 1019 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING. OVERFLOWING POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THIS AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
HUNTSVILLE...MONTGOMERY...RIVERSIDE...ANDERSON...HUNTSVILLE STATE
PARK...CRABBS PRAIRIE...RICHARDS...DOBBIN...DACUS AND
PLANTERSVILLE.

[BlueJay]

Started the day at 76F this morning. Temperature has really dropped fast. Down to 57F now.
Rainy and Chilly. Brrr!!!