August 2014 - Showers/Storms Possible To End The Month

[tireman4]

I think the pressures are too high ( at least that is what Srain and Wxman 57 stated..I think)..

[Rip76]

Clearly spin out there....

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

Just don't know at what level.

[Rip76]

All that moisture heading toward the coast is just falling apart, jeez.

[JamieP]

All that moisture heading toward the coast is just falling apart, jeez.

I know, very frustrating. Really looking forward to some rain

[Kludge]

There's a pretty large plume heading ashore towards Beaumont... let's hope it can sustain.

[ticka1]

too much dry air?

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye across the Piney Woods of E Texas. The CU field is developing as heat of the day increases and the bit of dry air across the I-45 Corridor shifts W. Also, storms are concentrating a bit more S of Vermillion Bay. There is a wind burst approaching for the NE across Southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. It is also noteworthy that the moisture feed along the upper trough extending SW toward Ft Myers is assisting with in flow. Chances of development into anything significant remain low, but likely a bit better than the 10% the NHC is currently giving it. Perhaps a TD just before moving inland sometime Friday in NE Mexico/South Texas.

[Andrew]

I don't see anything really forming in the gulf before it moves onshore later in the week. Shear is still an issue out of much of the gulf and the anticyclonic flow is too far to the Southeast to provide much support. On top of that the actual mid level rotation is still attached to the trough axis and is very elongated. Finally dry air is still present in much of the western part of the gulf which should limit intensification of a system this small. While mid level circulation is possible, i find it difficult to see it making it to the surface. We will see though what it does this evening into tomorrow. Good news for us locally, lack of development would allow for more moisture to stream northward into parts of SE Texas and not get displaced offshore. Current mesoanlysis shows a good PW nose over the area, so watch for development later into the afternoon, similar to what places in East Texas/West Louisiana saw yesterday.

shear.GIF

wv-l.jpg

pwtr (1).gif

[Andrew]

Starting to see scattered activity picking up all around SE Texas. Keep an eye on parts closer to the coast where multiple boundaries have setup. Similar conditions are present in parts of central Texas down south into parts of the San Antonio area where multiple outflow boundaries have setup.

[jasons2k]

What a frustrating day. I was hoping what we've seen over LA the last few days would translate over us today. Can't believe we've seen more rain today to the east and to the west of here, while we are stuck in this wedge of nothing in the middle. More rain around San Antonio today than Houston...from a system moving that's from east to west...that's sad.

And the kicker is there isn't even a massive blob offshore cutting off inflow, or some cirrus shield holding down the temps. None of those usual inhibitors...and still...nada.

[Kludge]

Yeah this is what I might have expected had the system ramped-up into a TS and sucked all our PW out into the Gulf. But nope... no TC development, no widespread rains... nada. Significant bust in my book. Measly 1/4" here in all of August.

And now the Lucy's are trying to get us to buy into a solid football kick later this week. Sorry... I've fallen for it too many times now.

[srainhoutx]

What is sort of comical is a1008mb surface low being anaylize near the Isle of Youth/Cuba at the tail end of the trough. I never expected much if any rain from this mess here in NW Harris County, but so much for that increased areal coverage many had hope for. That said our SW zones did get some much needed rain and maybe we can do better with that upper air disturbance and trough to our W this weekend.

[Rip76]

So back to 95 tomorrow?

[Katdaddy]

Nothing down here in League City however off my NW someone was getting a good thunderstorm with dark rain shafts and lightening. We shall see what tomorrow brings

[Katdaddy]

As the GOM moisture spreads inland along the Upper TX Coast including Houston metro over the next several days, some isolated heavy rains will be possible with 1-2" per rainfall rainfall. Current thinking by the HOU-GAL NWS indicates the flash flood threat will be small.

[srainhoutx]

Our disturbance in the NW Gulf while still somewhat sheared has tightened up and developed an organized low level center SSE of Galveston. It does appear that it has slowed down a bit and a general W to WSW motion should continue and the NHC has increased the odds for development to 20%. A RECON mission has been tasked for today if necessary to investigate. The disturbance may reach tropical depression status before moving inland in SoutTexas.

The overnight reliable Euro and GEFS ensemble mean has become aggressive with developing a disturbance in the SW Caribbean Sea this weekend. The computers models suggest a tropical cyclone may develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and move into the Western Gulf early next week.

the weekend also could see an increase in rain chances as a combination of the current Gulf disturbance and a short wave trough to our W get tangled up as the short wave moves the Plains this weekend. It does appear that the long Labor Day Weekend Holiday may become active in the weather department, so stay tuned...

[srainhoutx]

Our disturbance S of Galveston has been designated INVEST 98L.

[jasons2k]

So close, yet so far away.

[srainhoutx]

Youtube update from HGX...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbmlWZP ... k-bLtBFokQ

[sau27]

I found this really neat interactive global wind map that shows wind at all different levels of the atmosphere. There is definitely a surface spin off the southern TX coast.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... 30.27,2048

If nothing else this is a fun distraction for a weather geek. Click on the "earth" button at the bottom left to open the menu of various views.