September: Weekend Rain Chances. 1-2 Inches Possible C/N TX
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srainhoutx
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The 4:00 AM Full Package forecast discussion is an interesting read from Senior Forecaster and Louisiana native Jack .Beven. The Euro trended a bit further N and now is about 100 miles N of Tampico. The cone has been extended further N and E into S Texas as well. It does appear there will be some interaction with 90E in the EPAC and wind shear will keep TD 10 in check for the next 24-48 hours as it slowly meanders in the Bay of Campeche and moves NNW along the Mexico Gulf Coast before making landfall somewhere near or N of La Pesca, MX late on Sunday. Also of note is the increasing chances of rainfall along all of the Texas Coast into SE Texas early next week. Stay tune as there will likely be further changes in the forecast in this very ccomplicated and complex weather event.
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srainhoutx
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 12:06Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Tropical Depression: Number 10 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 11:44:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°19'N 95°06'W (19.3167N 95.1W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 169 miles (273 km) to the WNW (303°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 33kts (~ 38.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 72 nautical miles (83 statute miles) to the NE (50°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 124° at 31kts (From between the ESE and SE at ~ 35.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 63 nautical miles (72 statute miles) to the NE (51°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 459m (1,506ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 456m (1,496ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 31kts (~ 35.7mph) which was observed 63 nautical miles (72 statute miles) to the NE (51°) from the flight level center at 11:17:00Z
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 12:06Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Tropical Depression: Number 10 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 11:44:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°19'N 95°06'W (19.3167N 95.1W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 169 miles (273 km) to the WNW (303°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 33kts (~ 38.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 72 nautical miles (83 statute miles) to the NE (50°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 124° at 31kts (From between the ESE and SE at ~ 35.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 63 nautical miles (72 statute miles) to the NE (51°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 459m (1,506ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 456m (1,496ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 31kts (~ 35.7mph) which was observed 63 nautical miles (72 statute miles) to the NE (51°) from the flight level center at 11:17:00Z
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srainhoutx
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Morning e-mail from Jeff:
Tropical depression # 10 spinning over the Bay of Campeche
Discussion:
Satellite data along with observations from oil rigs indicate that the broad area of low pressure over the southern Gulf of Mexico has not intensified into a tropical storm. However deep thunderstorms have been developing near/over the center in the last few hours and banding features are increasing across the eastern and NE semi-circle. It would appear some modest westerly wind shear is impacting the system from both an upper level low over S TX and another area of disturbed weather over the Pacific Ocean. The system continues to look like a large monsoon depression similar to those found in the western Pacific Ocean.
Track:
The depression has been drifting very slowly westward overnight between 2-4mph. Steering currents are very weak and this will allow the system to drift in some erratic motion for the next 12-24 hours. The GFS and ECMWF models have come into fairly good agreement with the system tracking toward the NNW and then turning toward the WNW as high pressure remains in place over the southern plains into the weekend. This would bring the center of the system to the eastern Mexican coast in about 72 hours or late Sunday/early Monday morning between Tampico and Brownsville. The official NHC forecast track is a little to the left of the main multi-model consensus and the GFS/ECMWF runs. I suspect there may be some slight shifting northward of the forecast track this morning, but landfall still looks most likely in Mexico between 100-200 miles S of Brownsville.
Note: It should be understood that the forecast track confidence is more uncertain with this system than usual due to its current disorganization and large circulation. The NHC forecast error cone (below) represents the average track error at the forecast time points over the last 5 years. The cone is NOT developed based on individual storm uncertainty and does NOT represent impacts.
Intensity:
TD 10 is a broad system with a large area of lower pressure (1003mb). Large systems tend to take longer to consolidate their inner cores and there is also likely some degree of land interaction ongoing although this is likely not stopping development. In fact the concave shape and terrain of the Bay of Campeche tend to actually help systems spin up. Westerly wind shear is forecast to abate in the next 12-24 hours with upper level conditions becoming favorable for intensification. Intensity guidance which was spread out yesterday has come into better agreement with the system peaking around 50kts in about 60 hours. The official NHC forecast intensity is stronger as the system nears landfall of around 65mph. Previous systems in this area this year have spun up very quickly and it is interesting that this does not appear to be the case with TD 10. Two potential reasons are its large size and possibly the effect of cold water upwelling due to its slow movement.
Impacts:
Worst impacts will be aimed at the S TX coast where building seas and tidal pile up could result in coastal flooding along South Parde Island. Additionally, the slow movement looks to focus good rain banding into S TX for several days potentially leading to flooding even with the ongoing severe drought.
Locally along the upper TX coast:
Seas will continue to increase due to long fetch ESE to E winds across much of the central and northern Gulf of Mexico. High pressure building southward into the SE US will help to tighten the pressure gradient over the weekend. Sea are forecast to build into the 6-9 ft range over the weekend and in fact buoys E of Brownsville are already showing wave periods of up to 8 seconds suggesting bigger energy swells are developing. These swells have the ability to deliver more water to the beaches and cause wave set-up or trapping of the sea water on the beaches.
Tides are currently running about a half a foot above predicted levels. ET surge guidance which uses the GFS forecast model for its weather (wind fields) suggests a gradual tidal increase over the weekend with total water level heights (surge and tide combined) to reach just short of 2 ft over the weekend and right at 2 ft by Monday morning. This is still well below levels which would cause major coastal flooding along the upper TX coast (4-5 ft) but some minor flooding may be possible over the weekend especially on the Gulf facing beaches.
Rain chances look to start to increase late Sunday and then into early next week as high pressure slowly breaks down allowing the large pool of tropical moisture on the eastern side of the circulation to move into the TX coast. Models show some fairly large variations in the rainfall amounts for next week with the GFS much wetter than the ECMWF. Some of this has to do with how the low level center of TD 10 tracks once inland over MX. A more NW track west of the Rio Grande would tend to bring more moisture into SE TX where a more westward track would likely limited rainfall toward the coast and southward.
NHC Forecast Track and Error Cone:
Tropical depression # 10 spinning over the Bay of Campeche
Discussion:
Satellite data along with observations from oil rigs indicate that the broad area of low pressure over the southern Gulf of Mexico has not intensified into a tropical storm. However deep thunderstorms have been developing near/over the center in the last few hours and banding features are increasing across the eastern and NE semi-circle. It would appear some modest westerly wind shear is impacting the system from both an upper level low over S TX and another area of disturbed weather over the Pacific Ocean. The system continues to look like a large monsoon depression similar to those found in the western Pacific Ocean.
Track:
The depression has been drifting very slowly westward overnight between 2-4mph. Steering currents are very weak and this will allow the system to drift in some erratic motion for the next 12-24 hours. The GFS and ECMWF models have come into fairly good agreement with the system tracking toward the NNW and then turning toward the WNW as high pressure remains in place over the southern plains into the weekend. This would bring the center of the system to the eastern Mexican coast in about 72 hours or late Sunday/early Monday morning between Tampico and Brownsville. The official NHC forecast track is a little to the left of the main multi-model consensus and the GFS/ECMWF runs. I suspect there may be some slight shifting northward of the forecast track this morning, but landfall still looks most likely in Mexico between 100-200 miles S of Brownsville.
Note: It should be understood that the forecast track confidence is more uncertain with this system than usual due to its current disorganization and large circulation. The NHC forecast error cone (below) represents the average track error at the forecast time points over the last 5 years. The cone is NOT developed based on individual storm uncertainty and does NOT represent impacts.
Intensity:
TD 10 is a broad system with a large area of lower pressure (1003mb). Large systems tend to take longer to consolidate their inner cores and there is also likely some degree of land interaction ongoing although this is likely not stopping development. In fact the concave shape and terrain of the Bay of Campeche tend to actually help systems spin up. Westerly wind shear is forecast to abate in the next 12-24 hours with upper level conditions becoming favorable for intensification. Intensity guidance which was spread out yesterday has come into better agreement with the system peaking around 50kts in about 60 hours. The official NHC forecast intensity is stronger as the system nears landfall of around 65mph. Previous systems in this area this year have spun up very quickly and it is interesting that this does not appear to be the case with TD 10. Two potential reasons are its large size and possibly the effect of cold water upwelling due to its slow movement.
Impacts:
Worst impacts will be aimed at the S TX coast where building seas and tidal pile up could result in coastal flooding along South Parde Island. Additionally, the slow movement looks to focus good rain banding into S TX for several days potentially leading to flooding even with the ongoing severe drought.
Locally along the upper TX coast:
Seas will continue to increase due to long fetch ESE to E winds across much of the central and northern Gulf of Mexico. High pressure building southward into the SE US will help to tighten the pressure gradient over the weekend. Sea are forecast to build into the 6-9 ft range over the weekend and in fact buoys E of Brownsville are already showing wave periods of up to 8 seconds suggesting bigger energy swells are developing. These swells have the ability to deliver more water to the beaches and cause wave set-up or trapping of the sea water on the beaches.
Tides are currently running about a half a foot above predicted levels. ET surge guidance which uses the GFS forecast model for its weather (wind fields) suggests a gradual tidal increase over the weekend with total water level heights (surge and tide combined) to reach just short of 2 ft over the weekend and right at 2 ft by Monday morning. This is still well below levels which would cause major coastal flooding along the upper TX coast (4-5 ft) but some minor flooding may be possible over the weekend especially on the Gulf facing beaches.
Rain chances look to start to increase late Sunday and then into early next week as high pressure slowly breaks down allowing the large pool of tropical moisture on the eastern side of the circulation to move into the TX coast. Models show some fairly large variations in the rainfall amounts for next week with the GFS much wetter than the ECMWF. Some of this has to do with how the low level center of TD 10 tracks once inland over MX. A more NW track west of the Rio Grande would tend to bring more moisture into SE TX where a more westward track would likely limited rainfall toward the coast and southward.
NHC Forecast Track and Error Cone:
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srainhoutx
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 13:00Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Tropical Depression: Number 10 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 12:40:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°15'N 95°10'W (19.25N 95.1667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 171 miles (275 km) to the WNW (301°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 27kts (~ 31.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 51 nautical miles (59 statute miles) to the SE (128°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 195° at 35kts (From the SSW at ~ 40.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 459m (1,506ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 456m (1,496ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph) which was observed 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the SE (129°) from the flight level center at 12:18:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the SE (127°) from the flight level center
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 13:00Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Tropical Depression: Number 10 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 12:40:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°15'N 95°10'W (19.25N 95.1667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 171 miles (275 km) to the WNW (301°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 27kts (~ 31.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 51 nautical miles (59 statute miles) to the SE (128°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 195° at 35kts (From the SSW at ~ 40.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 459m (1,506ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 456m (1,496ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph) which was observed 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the SE (129°) from the flight level center at 12:18:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the SE (127°) from the flight level center
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srainhoutx
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 13:45Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Tropical Depression: Number 10 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 13:29:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°16'N 95°17'W (19.2667N 95.2833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 178 miles (286 km) to the WNW (300°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the W (272°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 360° at 37kts (From the N at ~ 42.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the W (273°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 457m (1,499ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 460m (1,509ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph) which was observed 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the N (6°) from the flight level center at 13:38:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 13:45Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Tropical Depression: Number 10 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 13:29:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°16'N 95°17'W (19.2667N 95.2833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 178 miles (286 km) to the WNW (300°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the W (272°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 360° at 37kts (From the N at ~ 42.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the W (273°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 457m (1,499ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 460m (1,509ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph) which was observed 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the N (6°) from the flight level center at 13:38:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
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wxman57
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Looks like we have TS Ingrid now. NHC will be upgrading by 10am. Center consolidated farther west near 19.3N/95.3W overnight. This reduces the risk (and benefit) to the lower TX coast, as model guidance has shifted southward to near Tampico again. Could even be south of there.
wxman57 wrote:Looks like we have TS Ingrid now. NHC will be upgrading by 10am. Center consolidated farther west near 19.3N/95.3W overnight. This reduces the risk (and benefit) to the lower TX coast, as model guidance has shifted southward to near Tampico again. Could even be south of there.
Each missed opportunity for rain in C. Texas is another step closer to worst drought on record, and we're getting very close. Next 12 months could produce some strong politic battles on the future of water in Texas.
I give up. Throwing in the towel. Bring on the first REAL front!! Maybe, JUST maybe we can squeeze out more rain from fronts than we can from anti-Texas TS Ingrid!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
For central, western and northern Texas it feels longer than that since we have benefited from a system with heavy, widespread rainfalls. Seems like only SE Texas has received most of the "wet" systems over the last 10+ years.Ed Mahmoud wrote:2011 to 2013, 3 straight years of fail.djmike wrote:I give up. Throwing in the towel. Bring on the first REAL front!! Maybe, JUST maybe we can squeeze out more rain from fronts than we can from anti-Texas TS Ingrid!
this goes back to 2005, looks like most of TX is in the same boat http://water.weather.gov/precip/texoz wrote:For central, western and northern Texas it feels longer than that since we have benefited from a system with heavy, widespread rainfalls. Seems like only SE Texas has received most of the "wet" systems over the last 10+ years.
of course, if you look at what the "normal" precip is, eastern TX does get more precip on average, with the gradient moving west across the state
but when you look at percent of normal for water year, or year to date, it paints a much different picture
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Texas Pirate
Looking over pictures I took during IKE here at the bay
I am happy Ingrid will not give us a direct hit.
Somber memories. 32 homes were wiped out in my area. Still not back.
However, I'm happy if S Texas and Central Texas gets a dose of good to help their drought with Ingrid
And maybe we'll get some of that happy liquid gold too...
West Texas is under Flash Flood warnings, so Im not worried about them...
I am happy Ingrid will not give us a direct hit.
Somber memories. 32 homes were wiped out in my area. Still not back.
However, I'm happy if S Texas and Central Texas gets a dose of good to help their drought with Ingrid
And maybe we'll get some of that happy liquid gold too...
West Texas is under Flash Flood warnings, so Im not worried about them...
Droughts are way detrimental than any flood or hurricane combined.texoz wrote:
Each missed opportunity for rain in C. Texas is another step closer to worst drought on record, and we're getting very close. Next 12 months could produce some strong politic battles on the future of water in Texas.
What's the Deadliest Natural Phenomenon?
http://www.livescience.com/32410-whats- ... menon.html
Over half of all deaths from natural disasters worldwide are due to drought and famine, according to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. Droughts can decrease the availability of potable water and can ruin crops, making food scarce.
FWIW....QPF 7 day is a little more generous with moisture for coastal Texas! 
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Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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srainhoutx
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
700 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND INGRID STRONGER...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 95.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA TO A HURRICANE WATCH.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST. INGRID IS CURRENTLY
STATIONARY...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A
NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...INGRID WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND APPROACH THE COAST IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY.
DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND INGRID
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 993
MB...29.32 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF
THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THIS EVENING.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY
LATE SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
700 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013
DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT INGRID HAS STRENGTHENED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO 993 MB...AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS INDICATE THAT THE
INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 50 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA
FROM MEXICO INDICATE THE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS ALSO
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
CDO FEATURE AND A LARGE CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
OBSERVED INTENSIFICATION AND NOW SHOWS INGRID REACHING HURRICANE
INTENSITY IN 48 HOURS.
AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED IN
SIZE...AND THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
OUTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST.
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST.
AS A RESULT OF THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION TO
THE INCREASED THREAT OF WINDS...THE COMBINATION OF THE MOIST FLOW
FROM BOTH INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER
EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
NOTE THAT THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY TAKES THE PLACE OF THE 700 PM
CDT...0000 UTC...INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0000Z 19.2N 95.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 19.5N 95.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 20.8N 95.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 21.7N 96.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 22.3N 97.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 22.5N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/1800Z 22.5N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
700 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND INGRID STRONGER...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 95.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA TO A HURRICANE WATCH.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST. INGRID IS CURRENTLY
STATIONARY...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A
NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...INGRID WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND APPROACH THE COAST IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY.
DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND INGRID
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 993
MB...29.32 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF
THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THIS EVENING.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY
LATE SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
700 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013
DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT INGRID HAS STRENGTHENED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO 993 MB...AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS INDICATE THAT THE
INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 50 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA
FROM MEXICO INDICATE THE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS ALSO
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
CDO FEATURE AND A LARGE CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
OBSERVED INTENSIFICATION AND NOW SHOWS INGRID REACHING HURRICANE
INTENSITY IN 48 HOURS.
AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED IN
SIZE...AND THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
OUTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST.
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST.
AS A RESULT OF THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION TO
THE INCREASED THREAT OF WINDS...THE COMBINATION OF THE MOIST FLOW
FROM BOTH INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER
EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
NOTE THAT THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY TAKES THE PLACE OF THE 700 PM
CDT...0000 UTC...INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0000Z 19.2N 95.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 19.5N 95.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 20.8N 95.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 21.7N 96.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 22.3N 97.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 22.5N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/1800Z 22.5N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Looks like that northward move may be starting.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 14:27Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 10L in 2013
Storm Name: Ingrid (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 13:59:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°30'N 94°30'W (20.5N 94.5W)
B. Center Fix Location: 202 miles (325 km) to the NNW (330°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,324m (4,344ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the WSW (241°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 314° at 43kts (From the NW at ~ 49.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the WSW (243°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 988mb (29.18 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,536m (5,039ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 76kts (~ 87.5mph) which was observed 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the N (359°) from the flight level center at 14:03:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the WSW (239°) from the flight level center
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 14:27Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 10L in 2013
Storm Name: Ingrid (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 13:59:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°30'N 94°30'W (20.5N 94.5W)
B. Center Fix Location: 202 miles (325 km) to the NNW (330°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,324m (4,344ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the WSW (241°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 314° at 43kts (From the NW at ~ 49.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the WSW (243°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 988mb (29.18 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,536m (5,039ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 76kts (~ 87.5mph) which was observed 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the N (359°) from the flight level center at 14:03:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the WSW (239°) from the flight level center
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
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Member: National Weather Association
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Couple of things this morning.
First off, I can't believe the board is so dead.
Secondly, props to the models that kept Ingrid meandering around down there for a while.
First off, I can't believe the board is so dead.
Secondly, props to the models that kept Ingrid meandering around down there for a while.
Not too exciting in the weather department today. Still glad to see Ingrid may provide some much needed drought relief for the Rio Grande Valley ....wish it would get just a bit closer so all of us in SE Texas benefit from the rain we all need. We can do without the wind and damage. Either way Mexico is getting hammered with torrential rainfall not only from Ingrid but from Manuel as well. A double whammy if you will.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
Unless Ingrid does a complete loop, I feel it will be a bit more to the north.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Once Ingrid moves inland, there continues to be strong indications that the monsoonal gyre that spawned Ingrid and Manuel will linger across the Western Gulf. Also we will need to monitor a cold front dropping S from the Plains and an easterly wave emerging from the NW Caribbean later next week. Neil Frank made a fairly strong statement the other night regarding the next 5-6 weeks during his 5 year Anniversary interview for
Ike on KHOU. Guidance is already 'sniffing' another storm potential a bit closer to the Texas/Louisiana Coast.
Ike on KHOU. Guidance is already 'sniffing' another storm potential a bit closer to the Texas/Louisiana Coast.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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