As mentioned yesterday, a potent Winter Storm is suggested by the medium/long range operational and ensemble guidance for the mid/late next week time frame across the Great Basin spreading ENE into the Central/Southern Plains and then toward the Upper Mid West. There is agreement that a deep 500mb low and attending surface low will develop with lee side cyclogensis near or just S of Denver setting the stage for a potential severe weather episode across the Central/Southern Plains on E into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley Region as a 100kt+ jet streak crosses E Texas. Such a scenario with enough Gulf moisture return with additional energy from a potent sub tropical jet could set the stage for a significant widespread severe weather event and will need to be monitored closely.
In the cold sector, heavy snow and near blizzard conditions may be possible NW and N of the surface low across the Rockies, portions of the Central/Northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region depending on the eventual storm track. The favored track at this time appears to be from Colorado ENE to near Cincinnati, but a bit further S track cannot be ruled out at this time. A NOAA G-IV has been sampling the N Pacific the past couple of days and another additional flight is scheduled departing from Hawaii this evening.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0550 PM EST WED 13 FEBRUARY 2013
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z FEBRUARY 2013
WSPOD NUMBER.....12-075 AMENDMENT
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49 CHANGED DESTINATION
A. P28/ DROP 10 (35.0N 150.0W)/ 15/0000Z
B NOAA9 11WSC TRACK28M
C. 14/1930Z
D. 12 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK THROUGH DROP 10
AND THEN DROPS AT 32.5N AND 30.0N ENROUTE PHNL
E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 15/0600Z
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CHANGED
P54/ DROP 8 (45.0N 166.0W)/ 16/00000Z
3. REMARK: THE NOAA G-IV WILL FLY TRACK P-9 TODAY AS
DETAILED IN WSPOD 12-074.
EDIT To Add: HPC Medium Range Update
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1026 AM EST THU FEB 14 2013
VALID 12Z SUN FEB 17 2013 - 12Z THU FEB 21 2013
THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES AT THE MEDIUM
RANGE IS A WINTRY ONE, WITH A STEADY SUPPLY OF POLAR AIR INTO THE
NATION, AND ENOUGH SPACING BETWEEN SHORTWAVES IN THE SPLIT FLOW TO
ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COMPLEX EVENT OFF THE EAST COAST DAY 3, TWO MORE MAJOR SYSTEMS ARE
SLATED TO IMPACT THE COUNTRY. THE FIRST WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE
SOUTHERN END WRINGING OUT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH, AND THE NORTHERN END DRAWING DOWN A FRESH BATCH OF COLD
AIR. THE SECOND WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE FAR WEST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN WORK ITS WAY TO THE GREAT PLAINS BY LATE DAY 6 INTO
DAY 7. THIS SECOND SYSTEM HOLDS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SNOW AND ICE. RELIED ON THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE 00Z/14 ECENS MEAN
FROM COAST TO COAST. THE ECENS MEAN CONTINUES TO SIDESTEP THE
EXTREME DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS, AND IN ITSELF IS DOMINATED BY
ROBUST MEMBER CLUSTERS THAT SHOW SMOOTH TEMPORAL CONTINUITY.
CISCO
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