January: Seasonal Temps To End The Month

[Karen]

what is the weather looking like for the 13th The Houston marathon.

[Snowman]

what is the weather looking like for the 13th The Houston marathon.

Possibly very cold according to some models

[txsnowmaker]

It's not every day that this is in the NWS forecast for Houston. I would settle for "little snow accumulation"...

Thursday night: A slight chance of rain showers and sleet after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Friday: A chance of rain and sleet, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 6%2C%20USA

[SusieinLP]

No frozen precip forecast for La Porte according to NWS but I'll gladly take whatever rain falls. Either way I'll be inside

[Ptarmigan]

Interesting to see sleet fall. Also interesting that last year at this time, it was rainy.

[C2G]

No frozen precip forecast for La Porte according to NWS but I'll gladly take whatever rain falls. Either way I'll be inside

Exactly Susie. In all likelihood we won't see any snow, so a cold rain would do just fine.
Telling you folks not to get your hopes up too high until wxman57 jumps on board, which I have yet to see.

[Katdaddy]

Great point Cloud2ground. Once Wxman57 jumps onboard then I would become much more interested and remember, its only Jan 2nd.

[skidog40]

msn says 20% chance of sleet tonight starting at 10:00 ? It looks to be moving out.

[skidog40]

is moisture building back inland

[C2G]

msn says 20% chance of sleet tonight starting at 10:00 ? It looks to be moving out.

According to NWS HG it should be ending very shortly.

Isentropic plots show the moist flow over the region slowly swinging to the west-southwest-west
between 3 PM and midnight and drying out. The back edge is already
inching closer to the coast and the rainfall intensity is letting
up here at the office as it appears to be on radar up and down the
coast.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
900 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-031000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
900 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013

...A VARIETY OF WEATHER CHANGES ARE COMING TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
IN THE NEXT WEEK...
...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
TO PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY...

COLDER CONDITIONS CAME TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...
BRINGING COLDER DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY JANUARY 2ND...2013.
THESE COLDER THAN USUAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

ON THURSDAY...A DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL MOVE TO
WEST TEXAS THURSDAY EVENING...AND THEN MOVE NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL CAUSE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

FROM THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY...
RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH OVER ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...A CHANCE OF COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...LIGHT SLEET IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AS
COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT CONTINUE.

LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...MIXED WITH COLD RAIN AND LIGHT
SLEET...ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY. TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVER ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
THE COLD RAIN COULD BE MIXED WITH LIGHT SLEET...HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AS THE FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES
TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN TEXAS. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER
LARGER SCALE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO WEST TEXAS. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN.

RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON SUNDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG DISTURBANCE
THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN
A SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT CAME TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...AND IN JANUARY OF 2012.

[TexasBreeze]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1000 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013

.DISCUSSION... CURRENT FORECAST HAS RAINS COMING TO AN END THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT NEAR THE COAST...AND RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THIS HAPPENING. THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD...AND NO UPDATE IS GOING TO BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.

00Z MODELS ARE HINTING AT INCREASING CHANCES OF PORTIONS OF OUR AREA POSSIBLY GETTING SOME KIND OF RAIN/SLEET MIX THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. GOING TO LET THE NEXT SHIFT FULLY EVALUATE THE NEW MODEL DATA AND MAKE ANY NECESSARY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS WINTRY MIX POSSIBILITY.

[srainhoutx]

The GFS continues to increase moisture across Texas. The 500mb upper low appears a bit stronger and over running with a moist 700mb level raises an eyebrow. While the surface appears to be a bit dry, there does appear to be enough lift to at least increase the saturation at the lower levels. We will see.

[C2G]

C'mon now I have to work Thursday night. Some nice sleet or snow with temps in the mid 30's would be good enough for me.
I work on the island and driving over the causeway covered with ice isn't a fun deal.

[wxman57]

C'mon now I have to work Thursday night. Some nice sleet or snow with temps in the mid 30's would be good enough for me.
I work on the island and driving over the causeway covered with ice isn't a fun deal.

There won't be any icy roads around here because the temperature isn't dropping below freezing.

[Katdaddy]

Possible Winter Weather Advisory for the northern portion of SE TX however of more concern is a possible severe weather and tornado event next week:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
500 AM CST THU JAN 3 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AMAZING HOW THE FORECAST DATA CAN CHANGE IN 24 HRS. BUT AS IT
STANDS...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO N
TX. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT SO THERE MAY BE
SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO THIN OUT
TODAY WITH SW JET FLOW REMAINING OVER THE REGION. DO NOT THINK THE
AIR WILL HEAT UP MUCH WITH COLD ADVECTION SO WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S TODAY. CLOUD COVER SHOULD RETURN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER S ROCKIES. UPPER LOW NOW OVER
BAJA MEXICO IS IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING OUT WITH NEW UPPER LOW
FORMING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE FIRST UPPER LOW
WILL BE THE FEATURE TO KEEP TRACK OF AS IT SHEARS OUT OVER TX.

SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BAJA
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO TX AROUND THE UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE S
ROCKIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS VORTICITY SUPPORTS INCREASED LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG OMEGA OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DURING THIS TIME ALSO SUPPORTS
LIFT AT 290K AND 295K LEVELS. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW BANDS OF
PRECIP FORMING OVER C TX AND MOVING INTO E TX DURING THE 12-18Z
FRI TIME FRAME. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE INCREASED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION BUT A NOTICEABLE DRY LAYER BELOW 850MB.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SEVERAL AREAS...IT LOOKS LIKE
RAIN/SLEET MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY FOR AREAS NEAR A KCLL TO
KUTS LINE. SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS A KATY TO TOMBALL
TO KINGWOOD LINE THROUGH HARRIS COUNTY BUT FORECAST SOUNDING FOR
KIAH SHOWS SOME ISSUES THAT NEED TO BE OVERCOME. MAINLY AREAS
NORTH OF KIAH HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WET BULBING TO OVERCOME
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS MAY NOT BE THE CASE OVER THE HOUSTON
AREA SOUTHWARD. THERE SEEMS TO BE A WSW TO ENE ZONE BETWEEN KIAH
AND KCXO THAT WILL BE A TRANSITION AREA BETWEEN RAIN AND A
RAIN/SLEET MIX. NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO CONROE LINE COULD SEE A
SMALL TIME FRAME OF COMPLETELY SLEET AND PERHAPS SNOW BUT THIS
LARGELY DEPENDS ON MOISTURE...LIFT AND THERMODYANMICS ALL COMING
TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME. IF THE NAM KEEPS UP ITS TREND FROM THE
00Z AND 06Z RUNS WITH COOLER TEMP PROFILES...MAY NEED TO MENTION
SNOW FOR THESE NORTHERN AREAS. AGAIN QUITE A FEW THINGS NEED TO
COME TOGETHER FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY
SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND MIX WITH RAIN.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE EVALUATED WITH LATER FORECASTS AS QUITE
POSSIBLE THAT OVERPASSES AND ROADS COULD EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHT
ICING SHOULD THERE BE MORE SLEET THAN RAIN. RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. BUT
EVEN A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE COULD POSE PROBLEMS FOR
ROADS/OVERPASSES AND RESTRICT TRAVEL. AFTER 18Z FRI DO EXPECT A
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. THE MAIN POINT IS
TO MONITOR FORECASTS FOR ANY UPDATES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
WINTER WEATEHR ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
MAIN UPPER LOW OVER S ROCKIES DOES MOVE ACROSS THE S PLAINS AND N
TX FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. AGAIN ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE
AND COMBINE WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE AREA FOR SOLID RAIN
CHANCES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO WARM THIS TIME AROUND FOR
WINTERY PRECIP BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR SLEET
GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER THE REGION.
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OUT SATURDAY BUT SOME LINGERING RAIN MAY
HOLD ON WITH DIVERGENCE FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET BEING
OVER SE TX AND UPPER TX COAST.

TEMPS FINALLY MODERATE SUN/MON/TUE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE HAS BEEN
SOME DESCREPENCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THE TIMING OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE STRONG WITH A
DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER W TX BY 12Z WED. THE ECMWF IS 6-12
HRS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHICH IS TROUBLE SOME WITH REGARDS TO
SEVERE WEATHER. THIS TIMING DIFFERENCE WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A STRONG POSSIBILITY WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD IT COME TO FRUITION. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF
SHEAR AND INSTABILTY. AGAIN LOTS OF TIME FOR THE MODELS TO WORK
OUT DETAILS BUT THIS WILL BE A SYSTEM TO REALLY KEEP WATCH.

[Portastorm]

Well despite what some were saying around here yesterday, a winter weather event is increasingly likely for the Austin area and Hill Country immediately to its west. EWX is on board now and may be issuing a Winter Weather Advisory later today. EWX, like their colleagues at HGX, are also concerned about next week's potential severe weather event.

------
Relevant excerpt from EWX's morning discussion:
A WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THRU NOON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. THE NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PHASE WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THESE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MODEL X-SECTIONS TONIGHT
THRU FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY
DEPICT TEMPS BELOW FREEZING AT THE CLOUD BASES WITH TEMPS WARMING
TO ABOVE FREEZING JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THIS TYPE OF SOUNDING WILL
RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WITH GROUND TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ANY
SNOW THAT FALLS WILL NOT STICK. THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION AREA
BETWEEN THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT AND HIGHWAY 90 WHERE SOME SLEET
MAY OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 ALL PCPN WILL BE
LIQUID. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED THIS MORNING
WITH THIS PACKAGE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...IF NEEDED...WILL
BE ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON FCST PACKAGE.

CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. THE PCPN WILL EXIT OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AXIS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A CLOSE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,

[redneckweather]

Portastorm, I know you are giddy with excitement and are holding back. Let it all hang out bro!!!! Hey Luuuuuuuucy!

[Portastorm]

Portastorm, I know you are giddy with excitement and are holding back. Let it all hang out bro!!!! Hey Luuuuuuuucy!

You just had to bring her into it?!

For the record, I'm not anticipating anything major at all here in Austin. But I'm more confident that the rain will be mixed with sleet or snow at times here. Out west, in the Hill Country and San Angelo, et al, it will be a bigger deal.

[srainhoutx]

Looking at the morning Water Vapor Imagery, two features are notable. A short wave is diving underneath the Great Basin Ridge of high pressure while the 500mb upper low begins to deepen or wrap up over Northern Mexico. Radar imagery suggest snow is developing just S of El Paso and more Eastern Pacific moisture is being pulled E as the storm system develops. The latest SREF guidance suggest cyclogenesis will begin during the day into this evening across W Texas and the surface trough along the Rio Grande Valley will begin the up glide process of over running precip tonight into tomorrow setting the stage for a potent West Texas Winter Storm. As the storm system finally moves ENE on Friday, lingering rain chances will end W to E across the Region Saturday. All eyes will turn West way out in the Pacific as the next strong storm system heads E towards California arriving Sunday setting the stage for what may be a severe weather episode somewhat similar to what we saw with the Christmas Storm mid next week.



EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
102 AM EST THU JAN 03 2013

VALID 12Z SUN JAN 06 2013 - 12Z THU JAN 10 2013

...SOUTHERN STREAM EXPECTED TO BECOME AN ACTIVE WEATHER MAKER BY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...

FEW CHANGES OVERALL TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM YESTERDAY. THE
MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS AND SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
HANDLED REASONABLY WELL. IN FACT...THE OPERATIONAL 2/12Z GFS AND
2/12Z ECMWF WERE PREFERRED 50/50 BLEND THROUGH DAY 5.

NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE WAVES MIGRATING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA...AND WITH A MODERATE 'KICKER' WAVE ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON DAY 6. THE 2/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS A GOOD
APPROXIMATION OF THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN...AND IN
PARTICULAR...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM DAY 5 TO DAY 7. MEDIUM RANGE GRAPHICS
BEGIN TRACKING A MODERATE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS BY DAY 6 AND INTO THE
MIDWEST ON DAY 7. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES WERE GIVEN HIGHER WEIGHTING
(60%) FOR THE DAY 6-7 PERIOD TO MITIGATE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
PRESENTED BY THE OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS/ECMWF.

ITS SOLUTION ALOFT (THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN) IS A GOOD MIDDLE
GROUND FOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...BEING
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS 2 OPERATIONAL EC RUNS (2/12Z-2/00Z)
ACROSS SOUTHERN CA/AZ AND A TAD SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS 2
OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS (2/12Z-3/00Z) ACROSS NM AND TX/OK. DID SEE
SOME MERIT IN USING THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF (20%/20%) FOR
DAY 6-7...TO HANDLE THE SURFACE DETAILS IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. THE 3/00Z GFS LOOKED TOO
FAST AND WAS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER BY LATE DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 ACROSS
NORTHERN TEXAS.