ENSO Updates

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3 -0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.6ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3 have cooled. Region 3.4 and 4 have warmed.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 -0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.1ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Cooled down quite a bit in Region 1+2. Warming in Region 3 and 3.4, while unchanged in Region 4.

[Ptarmigan]

An El Niño Coming in 2014?
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2635

Dr. Michael Ventrice thinks El Nino could be coming later this year. He points out the westerly wind bursts and downwelling Equatorial Kelvin Wave. Also, if tropical cyclones forms, they can amplify the western wind.

[Ptarmigan]

Dr. Michael Ventrice thinks El Nino is coming and it could be a strong one like 1982-1983 or 1997-1998.

Retweeted by Michael Ventrice
WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy · Mar 4

The current pattern over the West Pac looks eerily similar to the Spring that preceded the "Super El Nino" in 1997.


WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy · Mar 3

Massive sub-surface warming (>6 degree anoms) in central Pacific. Entire West Pacifc warm pool is shifting east!



Dr. Michael Ventrice
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 -0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.3ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Warming in all region, with exception of Region 4.

[Ptarmigan]

PDO Index went up to +0.38. PDO is short for Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We are currently in cool PDO, which is negative. It started in 2008. There was warm PDO in 2009-2010 due to El Nino.

PDO Index
http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

Does this mean we could be entering warm PDO? We shall see.

[Ptarmigan]

If two tropical cyclones are forecasted to form in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, it reinforces the westerlies that form large warm pools at the sub surface.




The EURO model is also predicting El Nino.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.6ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.6ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 has cooled. Region 3 and 4 have warmed, while Region 3.4 is unchanged. Region 1+2 is shallower and closer to land, so the water temperature can change faster.

[Ptarmigan]

The 30 day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is -9.3. -8 and below is considered El Nino, while 8 and above is La Nina.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[Ptarmigan]

ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 0.59. Positive ESPI indicates El Nino, while negative ESPI is La Nina.
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.6ºC
Niño 3.4 0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.2ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 is colling, while Region 3, 3.4, and 4 are warming.

[Ptarmigan]

+7°C Anomaly at 155 meters or 508.4 feet.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.7ºC
Niño 3.4 0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.7ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

All regions have warmed up from last week.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.7ºC
Niño 3.4 0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.7ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

No change in Region 1+2 and 4. Warming in Region 3 and 3.4.

[Ptarmigan]

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over Indian Ocean. Hopefully, this could give us rain down the road.




Ocean current surface are warmer right now than in 1997.

[jasons2k]

Largest Kelvin wave ever recorded:

http://www.mercurynews.com/portlet/arti ... Id=5864603

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.7ºC
Niño 3.4 0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.8ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Slight cooling in Region 1+2. Region 3 and 3.4 warmed up, while no change in Region 4.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.6ºC
Niño 3.4 0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.7ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Slight warming in Region 1+2 and 3. No change in Region 3.4, while slight cooling in Region 4.

[Ptarmigan]

Despite some cooling, most models forecast El Nino.

[Ptarmigan]

The sub surface warm pool has not completely come to the surface yet. If Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is in negative territory and more westerlies, it could come surface.