December: Warm Days & Cool-Foggy Nights To End 2011

[tireman4]

56 and raining in Humble...steadily...

[JackCruz]

Interesting.....check what the GFS is showing for Monday 19th......it'll change soon but....

[Katdaddy]

Cold front has drifted into League City area. Temps dropped from 71F to 64F.

[brazoriatx]

when is this thing suppose to reach the coast?

[Katdaddy]

The front is moving very slow. It passed through Pearland about 3PM. Current weathere station plots on WeatherUnderground puts the front at Alvin and Santa Fe. I am guessing at least 2 more hours before it reaches the coast.

[ticka1]

Interesting.....check what the GFS is showing for Monday 19th......it'll change soon but....

just for giggles and grins what does it show?

[JackCruz]

Interesting.....check what the GFS is showing for Monday 19th......it'll change soon but....

just for giggles and grins what does it show?

It's showing "Snow" I'm betting it'll disappear by tomorrow though Hope not....

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the NAM and SREF suggest moisture will linger a bit longer and even hint at a sleet pellet or two across our northern areas Late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. We will see...

[biggerbyte]

This has been the thought so far with this event, so I would not be surprised. Even more exciting is how things evolve as we dig deeper into December. This progressive step down to winter keeps on churning.

[Ptarmigan]

I am noticing more rain developing west of here.

[biggerbyte]

We have moisture coming up from the south, and the southwest. I've also noticed how much activity is over Texas tonight. It does look like our coastal low will form near Corpus and ride up the front just off shore. There will not be any problem in the rain department. We'll see about the sleet as this all begins to move out.

[srainhoutx]

A band of moderate rain as well as some possible rumbles of thunder extends from Matagorda County and on NE into Harris County at this hour. The moisture fetch extends SW into the Gulf several 100 miles. A potent upper air disturbance is creating lift and snow fall rates of 1 inch per hour + as per the latest Meso Discussion from the SPC is occuring near Abilene.

[biggerbyte]

Folks, there looks to be a lot of rain in store for sections right up highway 59. Radar show a steady stream of moisture coming up out of the gulf, all the way down to Brownsville, as well as from the southwest. Rain will not be a problem tonight.

[wxman666]

Snow/freezing rain mix getting into the D/FW metroplex at this time. SPS was issued by FWD. Update from HGX shows 100% rain and temps may fall through the day.

[srainhoutx]

It's going to be a nasty morning commute out there, so take some extra time for those travel plans. Rain should begin to decrease around the lunch hour/early afternoon. Clouds look to linger into Wednesday with light rain/drizzle and some 'cooler' temps settling in as a push of 'colder' air sinks S behind the upper air disturbance currently across N TX heads E. We may need to keep an eye on Friday into Saturday as yet another upper air feature traverses the Lone Star State behind another cold front and some potential for another coastal low/trough forming in the NW Gulf. We will see.

[ticka1]

Is the rain moving out earlier then expected or is there more forecasted later this morning?

[wxman57]

Rain looks to be just about over now. Just some drizzle remaining.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

First week of December will be very winter like across TX with cloudy, cold, and damp conditions expected

Slow moving cold front has moved offshore this morning with a secondary and much stronger push of cold air currently moving through SE TX. Widespread rainfall overnight is slowly ending from W to E as the latest short wave passes off to the north this morning while snow is falling over NC TX this morning. Strong cold air advection regime will be in place today with gusty NW winds of 15-20mph and slowly falling temperatures. Given widespread clouds and light rain/drizzle most locations will remain in the 40’s.

Another weak vort is progged to move across the area tonight and Tuesday and this will help maintain cloud cover and at least a slight chance of light rain and drizzle. Surface cold dome will deepen with time, but SW flow aloft combined with embedded vorts in this flow support continued weak lifting over the cold dome. Think clouds will remain with a few periods of drizzle/light rain especially near the coast and offshore tonight-Tuesday as supported by the 00Z WRF showing western Gulf of Mexico activity trying to lift back northward tonight and Tuesday. Feel most of this will remain offshore, but some may move inland. With clouds and drizzle and continue cold air advection, highs on Tuesday will likely be in the mid to upper 40’s. Saturated profiles in the low level do not support significant wet bulb cooling even with drier air advection from the north, so no P-type issues are expected. When profiles do become somewhat favorable over our NW counties Tuesday night, most moisture will be well south of that area with only a trapped layer of moisture under the frontal inversion.

Main trough axis still well back to the west will sweep across the area on Wednesday and this should clear skies by late Wednesday after another cold day. Slower clearing will keep highs in the 40’s again, while faster clearing might result in 50’s across the region. 00Z NAM solution holds clouds tough over the region until late Wednesday afternoon and this seems reasonable. Clear skies and cold Thursday with a light freeze likely for many areas both Thursday and Friday AM. Most locations have already had their first freeze of the season, and this cold snap does not look any colder than the previous.

Bigger headaches appear Friday-next weekend as yet another trough digs into the SW US with increasing potential for south TX coastal troughing at some point next weekend. Models have been bouncing around with the intensity and placement of such a feature and there is not much better agreement today than yesterday. 00Z GFS has come in much drier for the weekend with the possible trough not taking shape until early the following week. Will likely see some sort of moisture begin to return back northward over the cold dome by Saturday with cloudy conditions likely by Sunday. Should a coastal trough/surface low form off the S TX coast then light rain/drizzle and cool/cold temperatures could be expected next weekend. Not expecting highs much above the upper 50’s Fri-Sun and if more clouds and rain develop highs could be held in the upper 40’s/low 50’s.

Many locations picked up another .5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours. Rainfall was fairly widespread and while much of the area remains in exceptional drought, the frequency of wetting rains has increased over the past 2 months. Hopefully we can maintain this active “wet” pattern through December and chip away at that massive rainfall deficit over the region.

[svrwx0503]

Secondary cold front pushing across the city at this time with temperature's falling into the 40's quickly, along with increasing northerly winds. It looks like we may have already seen our high temperatures for the day as clouds and drizzle combined with the stronger cold air advection will likely keep temperatures from rising much any more.

[JackCruz]

Where I am it's around 48/47 degrees and it feels like 44/45 degrees...windy


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1007 AM CST MON DEC 5 2011

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER S ROCKIES HAS MOVED INTO THE PLAINS
AS A SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A WEAK SFC LOW
TO FORM ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS MOVED INTO LA. COLD
FRONT HAS SURGED INTO THE GULF THIS MORNING AS A CANADIAN AIRMASS
FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. 1039MB SFC HIGH OVER THE
N PLAINS WILL SLIDE SOUTH THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS WILL KEEP A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER TX WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLD
ADVECTION WILL REMAIN STRONG AND DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
WARMING TODAY WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TODAY AND THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW
LINGERING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION WITH STRONG W/SW FLOW ALOFT
THINK THERE MAY STILL BE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
WILL EVALUATE 12Z MODEL SOUNDINGS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK. UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

----------------------------------------------------

Both Accuweather.com and Weather.com have a low temp of 29 for Wednesday
December 18th/19th/20th looks interesting.