Page 77 of 113
Re: January Weather Discussion. Cold Blast Coming?
Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 12:00 am
by Mr. T
TexasBreeze wrote:
...especially between IAH (heat island with planes) and well, anywhere else that has no urban heat island effect. There's usually a big difference between Conroe and IAH too.
Yeah. I've seen IAH about 10 degrees warmer than sites like Conroe and Hooks
It didn't use to be like that, but with the urban heat island gaining traction over the last decade, IAH has become a pretty crappy climate site
Re: January Weather Discussion. Cold Blast Coming?
Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 12:07 am
by TexasBreeze
I agree. IMO I think climate sites should be away from airports and more rural or above grassy areas away from buildings. On the other hand concrete and buildings are expanding more and more as time goes on which makes it harder to get an uncontaminated reading.
Re: January Weather Discussion. Cold Blast Coming?
Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:51 am
by wxman666
Hard Freeze Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2011
...HARD FREEZE IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...
..A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 20S NORTH OF A LINE FROM MOSS HILL TO SPRING TO MONAVILLE TO
COLUMBUS. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THESE
LOCATIONS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-121500-
/O.NEW.KHGX.HZ.W.0001.110112T0600Z-110112T1500Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...
BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...
COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...
GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PASADENA...PRAIRIE VIEW...SEALY...
SHEPHERD...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WILLIS
338 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2011
...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
CST WEDNESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
HARD FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM CST WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 20 AND 25 ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. SPECIFICALLY...
LOCATIONS NORTH OF LINE FROM TRINITY TO HUNTSVILLE TO CALDWELL
CAN EXPECT THESE TEMPERATURES FOR ABOUT 8 HOURS. CENTRAL PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...DOWN TO A LINE FROM MOSS HILL TO SPRING TO
MONAVILLE TO COLUMBUS...CAN EXPECT THESE TEMPERATURES FOR ABOUT 4
TO 6 HOURS. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
25 DEGREES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND
OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION. EXPOSED OR SUSCEPTIBLE WATER PIPES
WILL BE IN DANGER OF FREEZING. RESIDENTS SHOULD PROTECT PETS AND
PEOPLE.
&&
$$
Re: January Weather Discussion. Cold Blast Coming?
Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:53 am
by wxman666
Interesting forecast for my area. Wind chill readings could be in the teens Tuesday night/Wednesday morning for me!
I don't know what that even feels like!!!!!
Re: January Weather Discussion. Cold Blast Coming?
Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:53 am
by Mr. T
Hard freeze warning for everyone along and north of ih-10 including Harris
Re: January Weather Discussion. Cold Blast Coming?
Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:54 am
by Mr. T
wxman666 wrote:Interesting forecast for my area. Wind chill readings could be in the teens Tuesday night/Wednesday morning for me!
I don't know what that even feels like!!!!!
If you were here during Jan 2010, you might have felt that
Re: January Weather Discussion. Cold Blast Has Arrived!
Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 7:52 am
by srainhoutx
The front was a bit faster than I was thinking yesterday. That boundary is offshore and let the CCA begin. I noticed pressures are near or slightly above the 1060mb range in N TX. Temps across TX range from the lower single digits in the Panhandle to the mid 50's in deep S TX at this hour.
Re: January Weather Discussion. Cold Blast Has Arrived!
Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 8:04 am
by wxman57
It's pretty darn cold up there in north TX - 3 in Amarillo this morning. To get an idea of what that might mean for Houston, take the Amarillo morning low and add 20 degrees to account for dry adiabatic heating as the air moves downslope to Houston. That would give you 23, assuming no modification at all of the airmass up there.
Re: January Weather Discussion. Cold Blast Has Arrived!
Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 8:18 am
by srainhoutx
Code: Select all
TXZ171-172-183>190-111500-
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
JUNCTION CLEAR 24 18 77 N9 30.55R WCI 14
*LLANO CLEAR 27 19 74 N12 30.62R WCI 16
BURNET CLEAR 24 16 71 N16 30.58R WCI 11
*HORSESHOE BAY PTCLDY 27 19 74 NW13G21 30.57R WCI 16
*KERRVILLE CLOUDY 29 19 68 N15G23 30.51R WCI 17
*FREDERICKSBRG CLOUDY 26 20 78 N12G21 30.54R WCI 15
*ROCKSPRINGS CLOUDY 28 19 69 CALM 30.47R
*BOERNE STAGE CLOUDY 30 23 74 N15G21 30.50R WCI 19
*CASTROVILLE CLOUDY 37 28 70 N10G20 30.52R WCI 30
HONDO CLOUDY 37 26 64 N14 30.53R WCI 28
*UVALDE CLOUDY 38 30 71 NE6 30.52R WCI 34
DEL RIO CLOUDY 37 24 59 N16 30.55R WCI 28
LAUGHLIN AFB CLOUDY 37 28 71 N15 30.55R WCI 28
$$
TXZ173-191>194-202-209-217>225-228-111500-
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
GEORGETOWN CLEAR 27 16 63 N15G24 30.57R WCI 15
AUSTIN/BERGSTM MOCLDY 31 20 63 N22G30 30.56R WCI 18
AUSTIN/MABRY CLEAR 29 21 72 N12G18 30.57R WCI 19
*AUSTIN/EXEC CLEAR 28 23 80 N15G24 30.57R WCI 17
*LAGO VISTA PTCLDY 28 23 80 NW9G18 30.54R WCI 20
SAN MARCOS CLOUDY 34 18 51 N22 30.57R WCI 22
NEW BRAUNFELS CLOUDY 34 25 69 N21G26 30.53R WCI 22
RANDOLPH AFB CLOUDY 35 24 66 N16 30.53R WCI 24
SAN ANTONIO CLOUDY 35 23 61 N16G24 30.52R WCI 25
STINSON FIELD CLOUDY 38 26 62 N15G23 30.52R WCI 29
*PLEASANTON CLOUDY 40 31 71 N9G17 30.53R WCI 33
*LA GRANGE CLOUDY 35 28 74 N13G23 30.51R WCI 27
*GIDDINGS PTCLDY 32 24 73 N15G25 30.56R WCI 22
$$
TXZ163>164-176>182-195>201-210>213-226-227-235-111500-
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLLEGE STN CLEAR 33 24 69 N18G26 30.55R WCI 22
*CALDWELL PTCLDY 32 27 80 NW14G24 30.57R WCI 22
*CROCKETT PTCLDY 32 27 80 NW13 30.56R WCI 22
*BRENHAM PTCLDY 34 27 75 N16G23 30.52R WCI 23
HUNTSVILLE PTCLDY 33 26 75 N7G17 30.52R WCI 27
CONROE MOCLDY 35 28 75 N12 30.50R WCI 27
HOUSTON BUSH CLOUDY 37 29 72 N13 30.49R WCI 29
HOUSTON HOBBY CLOUDY 39 29 67 N15G26 30.49R WCI 31
*HOUSTON SW AP CLOUDY 37 31 79 N13 30.49R WCI 29
PEARLAND CLOUDY 37 29 72 N13G24 30.51R WCI 29
HOUSTON HOOKS CLOUDY 36 29 75 N12G18 30.49R WCI 28
ELLINGTON FLD MOCLDY 37 30 75 N16 30.50R WCI 28
SUGAR LAND CLOUDY 37 29 72 N16G23 30.49R WCI 28
*HOUSTON EXEC CLOUDY 37 32 81 N18 30.50R WCI 27
*CLEVELAND MUN CLOUDY 37 31 78 N6G16 30.49R WCI 32
*WHARTON CLOUDY 39 32 76 N13G21 30.51R WCI 31
$$
TXZ214>216-236>238-111500-
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
*ORANGE CLOUDY 36 30 80 N16G25 30.48R WCI 26
PORT ARTHUR CLOUDY 35 28 75 N16G26 30.47R WCI 25
GALVESTON CLOUDY 37 31 78 N25G33 30.49R WCI 25
ANGLETON CLOUDY 37 29 72 N16G22 30.49R WCI 28
*BAY CITY CLOUDY 37 34 87 N14G21 30.50R WCI 29
PALACIOS MOCLDY 38 31 76 N23G29 30.51R WCI 27
$$
Re: January Weather Discussion. Cold Blast Coming?
Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 8:19 am
by wxman666
Mr. T wrote:wxman666 wrote:Interesting forecast for my area. Wind chill readings could be in the teens Tuesday night/Wednesday morning for me!
I don't know what that even feels like!!!!!
If you were here during Jan 2010, you might have felt that
I was but I sure don't remembering it being that chilly! Must've pushed it out of my mind.
Re: January Weather Discussion. Cold Blast Has Arrived!
Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 8:21 am
by hlewis
I hate to butt in, but I'm a long-time member/lurker and just am out of the loop and don't feel like reading back through everything... please, can you tell me what to expect in Wharton County ...and...is there any chance for SNOW?
Thanks so much!
Re: January Weather Discussion. Cold Blast Has Arrived!
Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 8:30 am
by srainhoutx
hlewis wrote:I hate to butt in, but I'm a long-time member/lurker and just am out of the loop and don't feel like reading back through everything... please, can you tell me what to expect in Wharton County ...and...is there any chance for SNOW?
Thanks so much!
You folks look to be in the mid to upper 20's tonight and tomorrow night in Wharton County. Clouds will likely increase tomorrow as a short wave approaches from our W, but things appear too dry at the lower levels for any chance of wintry precip for Wednesday night/Thursday...for now... and don't be afraid to jump in anytime, hlewis.
Re: January Weather Discussion. Cold Blast Has Arrived!
Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 8:32 am
by srainhoutx
E-mail from Jeff has just arrived...
Long advertised arctic cold front has pushed through the area overnight ushering in a very cold air mass.
Hard Freeze Warning has been issued for tonight along and N of I-10.
Arctic boundary has pushed deep into the Gulf of Mexico this morning with strong cold air advection in place across the region. Temperatures have fallen into the mid/upper 30’s at all sites with wind chill values in the low 30’s and upper 20’s. Real core of the arctic dome is just now reaching the TX panhandle where Pampa, TX is currently 1 and Lubbock, TX 9. Upstream temperatures over NC TX are in the mid 20’s to upper teens and this very dry and cold air mass will continue to advect southward today on strong NW winds. Low level stratus are starting to erode over NC TX from the NW as very dry low level air mass moves southward with dewpoints into the 1’s. Should see a slow but gradual clearing of the skies from NW to SE today with clear skies over all areas by late afternoon. Highs will struggle to reach to low to mid 40’s today.
Clear skies will allow for a very cold night tonight even with winds staying in the 5-10mph range. Temperatures will fall below freezing quickly this evening with lows at or below 25 degrees N of I-10 Wednesday morning. A Hard Freeze Warning is in effect for these areas for 8-12 hours of temperatures at or below freezing. Along and north of US 59 lows will range from 25-28 with temperatures below freezing for 5-9 hours. South of US 59 temperatures will range from 28-31 with temperatures below freezing for 4-6 hours.
Short wave aloft will move toward TX Wednesday with a mid level cloud deck along the Rio Grande plains tonight rapidly advecting NE early Wednesday. Skies will gradually become cloudy from the SW during the day limiting heating and keeping highs in the 40’s. Cloud deck in place Wednesday night should keep temperatures 2-4 degrees warmer than tonight…still a freeze for many locations. Very dry sub cloud layer should prevent any precipitation from reaching the ground.
Friday-Weekend:
Coastal trough develops along the middle TX coast locking in NE flow with SW flow overrunning the shallow cold dome. Cold dome will be slow to erode with NE winds keeping the cold air entrenched and clouds/light rain helping to prevent modification. Will likely see more clouds/drizzle than rain during this period until late Saturday/Sunday when the trough becomes a warm front and begins to lift northward finally eroding the cold dome and allowing highs back into the 60’s by Sunday and Monday. Next front is due in Monday of next week.
Forecast Lows for Wednesday Morning:
Houston, Madison, Trinity, Brazos, Grimes, Walker, Polk Counties: 20-23
Washington, Waller, Montgomery, Austin, Colorado, San Jacinto, Liberty: 22-25
Harris outside the Beltway: 24-26
Harris inside the Beltway: 26-29
Harris inside 610 Loop: 28-32
Fort Bend, Wharton, Victoria, N Jackson: 24-27
Chambers, Galveston, Brazoria, Matagorda, Jackson, Calhoun: 28-32
Freeze Precautions:
Forecasted temperatures tonight along with the duration below freezing will impact sensitive tropical vegetation and exposed outside pipes. Plants and pipes should be covered to protect against the cold. Last January the majority of the issues with pipes were on the back flow preventer for yard sprinkler systems and these should be covered and protected tonight. Winds will remain in the 5-10mph range overnight so coverings should be tightly secured. With winds staying up (advective freeze), the covering of plants to produce the “greenhouse effect” will only be marginally effective when compared to a calm night (radiative freeze) where the warmth from the ground becomes trapped under the covering.
Re: January Weather Discussion. Cold Blast Has Arrived!
Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 8:32 am
by Portastorm
Currently 29 degrees with a north wind of 15 and a wind chill of 19! Bbbrrrrr...probably appropriate weather for the first day of the legislative session here in Austin.
Re: January Weather Discussion. Cold Blast Has Arrived!
Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 8:39 am
by srainhoutx
Interesting to see all the cold building across Canada via the Euro at day 10. The $64,000 question is will that air mass translate S?
01112011 00Z Euro 00zeuro500mbHGHTNH240.gif
01112011 00Z Euro GFS 500mb test8.gif
Re: January Weather Discussion. Cold Blast Has Arrived!
Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 8:43 am
by hlewis
srainhoutx wrote:hlewis wrote:I hate to butt in, but I'm a long-time member/lurker and just am out of the loop and don't feel like reading back through everything... please, can you tell me what to expect in Wharton County ...and...is there any chance for SNOW?
Thanks so much!
You folks look to be in the mid to upper 20's tonight and tomorrow night in Wharton County. Clouds will likely increase tomorrow as a short wave approaches from our W, but things appear too dry at the lower levels for any chance of wintry precip for Wednesday night/Thursday...for now... and don't be afraid to jump in anytime, hlewis.
Thank you, srain!! That sounds like chili weather to me
have a great day board!
Re: January Weather Discussion. Cold Blast Has Arrived!
Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 8:45 am
by srainhoutx
It is certainly chili weather. I'll be making a batch today!
Re: January Weather Discussion. Cold Blast Has Arrived!
Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 8:53 am
by seanatsk
I noticed the cold air building in Canada this morning. Seems that the NW Territories are getting some mighty frigid air finally. Also appears that there might be some cross polar flow ocurring from temps in the North Central - North Eastern parts of Siberia. You're right the real question is if it will head south and when. I'm throwing the model guidance out now because they don't appear to be handling the air masses very well. I'm just looking at the building temps from what is generally our source regions.
Re: January Weather Discussion. Cold Blast Has Arrived!
Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 9:19 am
by redneckweather
So this is the much anticipated arctic front that we were going nuts over last week? Low's are forecasted to be in the 22 to 25 range in my area tonight. I've already seen that twice this fall/winter season. I hit 22 degrees over Thanksgiving weekend (Saturday morning in a deer stand, froze my butt off!!) and 24/25 a couple weeks after that? Sure this is a bit chilly but nothing we don't see usually once or twice every fall/winter season. The models strung us out pretty good on this one didn't they?
I'm sure this will be our coldest stretch and then maybe a light freeze a night or two next week then that should be it. Come on Spring time! I'm ready to get my garden in the ground.
Re: January Weather Discussion. Cold Blast Has Arrived!
Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 9:32 am
by wxman57
redneckweather wrote:So this is the much anticipated arctic front that we were going nuts over last week? Low's are forecasted to be in the 22 to 25 range in my area tonight. I've already seen that twice this fall/winter season. I hit 22 degrees over Thanksgiving weekend (Saturday morning in a deer stand, froze my butt off!!) and 24/25 a couple weeks after that? Sure this is a bit chilly but nothing we don't see usually once or twice every fall/winter season. The models strung us out pretty good on this one didn't they?
I'm sure this will be our coldest stretch and then maybe a light freeze a night or two next week then that should be it. Come on Spring time! I'm ready to get my garden in the ground.
Yes, this is it. Fortunately, we are only getting a tiny piece of Arctic air with this front. The concern a week ago was that a larger chunk of cold air might move south, resulting in temps down to the mid teens here and highs not much above freezing if at all. That extreme cold was a possibility, but it was never the forecast (most likely to happen).
Sometimes it is hard to explain the difference between talking about something that is possible vs. the forecast of what's more likely to happen. To use a hurricane example, we might identify a major hurricane entering the Gulf in about a week, mentioning that it's possible that it could hit our area. However, the forecast is for it to hit the mid Gulf Coast at present. When the hurricane hits the mid Gulf Coast, some might say "this is the major hurricane that was supposed to hit Houston?" As meteorologists, we would then explain that the hurricane was never FORECAST to hit us, it was just a possibility that it could hit us.
Same thing with the Arctic air. We never FORECAST teens here, we forecast mid to upper 20s. But teens were a possibility in the long range forecast.