I had been noticing that same thing, and imagining how screwed we'd be with hurricane warnings that far inland in the Houston area.
August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall
Core wrapping-up again quickly. Ida means business. This is a very dangerous situation setting-up for NOLA. Don’t have time to debate wind speeds and silt turbidity at Galveston right now but the point was it’s not the Mississippi river. 
Will check-in when I can but will probably be busy working S2K this weekend. Godspeed to those in the path.
Will check-in when I can but will probably be busy working S2K this weekend. Godspeed to those in the path.
College Station and A&M would be FUBAR with classes schedule to open Monday. the power grid could be down for weeks in its weakened state
Those easterly winds piling up water in St. Bernard Parish and testing the levees as shallow Lake Ponchatrain will rise. I hope they heeded evacuation warnings.jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat Aug 28, 2021 12:34 am Core wrapping-up again quickly. Ida means business. This is a very dangerous situation setting-up for NOLA. Don’t have time to debate wind speeds and silt turbidity at Galveston right now but the point was it’s not the Mississippi river.
Will check-in when I can but will probably be busy working S2K this weekend. Godspeed to those in the path.
Katrina I believe became a CAT5 nearly filling the Gulf after crossing Florida. She weakened before landfall...but that was a large amount of momentum and surge producing ability already baked in.Andrew wrote: ↑Fri Aug 27, 2021 10:38 pmAlso amazing that in a little less than 24 hours we are expected to have a major hurricane on our hands when the system is currently a weak category one. Unfortunately, as cromagnum mentioned I hope everyone across the state is prepared for the impacts this storm will likely bring.
TBH, Ida is not impressive yet, but has one of the most power incubators on Earth underneath her in the August Gulf water after passing over Cuba...and is starting to rev up. Towers are popping.
https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... nitsst=Off
-
redneckweather
- Posts: 1058
- Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
- Location: Montgomery, Texas
- Contact:
Well that is all you had to say instead of typing up a half truth dissertation about it.loljasons2k wrote: ↑Sat Aug 28, 2021 12:34 am Core wrapping-up again quickly. Ida means business. This is a very dangerous situation setting-up for NOLA. Don’t have time to debate wind speeds and silt turbidity at Galveston right now but the point was it’s not the Mississippi river.
Will check-in when I can but will probably be busy working S2K this weekend. Godspeed to those in the path.
Terrible deal for Louisiana, especially after last year. Prayers outbound for our neighbors.
She’s forming an eye
It wasn’t wrong. You can get clear water in either case. The main reason is still due to the particles suspended in the water regardless of which way the wind blows.redneckweather wrote: ↑Sat Aug 28, 2021 7:49 amWell that is all you had to say instead of typing up a half truth dissertation about it.loljasons2k wrote: ↑Sat Aug 28, 2021 12:34 am Core wrapping-up again quickly. Ida means business. This is a very dangerous situation setting-up for NOLA. Don’t have time to debate wind speeds and silt turbidity at Galveston right now but the point was it’s not the Mississippi river.
Will check-in when I can but will probably be busy working S2K this weekend. Godspeed to those in the path.
Terrible deal for Louisiana, especially after last year. Prayers outbound for our neighbors.
Ida is off to the races…as expected.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 281127
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
627 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Low CIGs do not appear to be materializing at northern sites, and
have pulled references in the TAF there. Have shower mentions at
the outset from HOU coastward, and will spread northward and gain
a thunder mention this afternoon, and retreat back to the Gulf
again tonight. With such a long VCTS window at most sites, have
also tried to highlight periods of highest likely impact with
TEMPO and or prevailing SHRA. Winds mainly easterly, increasing
to 5 to 10 knots for the afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 430 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021/...
.DISCUSSION...
It`s safe to say that the dominant feature of the forecast in the
Gulf of Mexico early this week is Hurricane Ida, making its way
into the Gulf after crossing Cuba on Friday. Fortunately for our
area, Ida is expected not to track towards our area, meaning the
main impacts to Southeast Texas will be for our coastal waters,
and an increased risk of rip currents at local beaches. At worst,
we may see a swipe of showers from an outer band or an occasional
gust to around tropical storm force.
The downside is that when it comes to hurricanes in the Gulf, what
is good news for some must mean bad news for someone else. The
forecast for Ida brings a powerful hurricane to the Louisiana
coast tomorrow night. If you have friends, family, acquaintances,
or - heck, even enemies - in the path of this storm, now is the
time to urge them to complete their hurricane plans and
preparations as quickly as possible.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday Night]...
Water vapor imagery shows convection blossoming along the Texas
and Louisiana Gulf coast early this morning. This is well out
ahead of Ida, but instead looks to be a subtle shortwave trough
making its way around midlevel ridging ahead of the hurricane. For
most of the night, storms have died pretty quickly as they drifted
too far west from the trough axis. However, in the past hour or
two, the radar has really started to light up. The expectation is
that as the shortwave trough continues to move northwest across
the eastern portion of our forecast area, it will support
increased coverage of showers and storms through the day,
particularly into the afternoon as instability builds.
Temperature-wise, humid air looks to keep low temperatures above
normal, but also is likely to keep warming in check a little,
keeping afternoon highs closer to seasonal averages.
Sunday may be a deceptively tricky forecast as Ida approaches and
eventually moves inland over the Louisiana coast. It`s a fine line
between being far enough off that we see a little more onshore
connection, providing a continued flow of moist air to give us
another day with scattered showers and storms and getting caught
underneath the storm`s subsident edge, with dry, northeast flow
and capping to keep convection under wraps. And then there`s
another fine line to catching an outer band or two of the storm,
as some of the guidance has suggested.
Considering so much of this is dependent on the precise track,
strength, and structure of Ida, it`s probably a fool`s errand to
get too granular with the forecast here. I give all of the
forecast area at least a slight chance of rain on Sunday, lowest
across the far inland north and highest towards the south and
east, closest to the expected path of Ida. I pull things back
tomorrow night, as by then we`ll lose daytime heating and Ida
will be moving northward into Louisiana. For what it`s worth, I do
shade a bit higher with high temps on Sunday - and this will be
particularly necessary if we end up with more subsidence, more
sun, and less rain.
.LONG TERM [Monday Through Saturday]...
The medium range starts off with Ida`s remnants moving north-
northeast over the Lower MS Valley and Tennessee Valley on Monday
and Tuesday. Our region will be positioned on the southwestern edge
of this tropical cyclone as it moves northeastward. This will result
in northwest to west winds at the surface and PWATs down into the
1.7-1.9 inch range over southeast TX. Higher moisture axis will
remain south of I-10 and into our far eastern counties; therefore,
have kept chances for showers and thunderstorms across these
locations for Monday and Tuesday.
As we move into mid-week, deterministic and some ensemble members
suggest a line of convergence zone developing from the Upper TX
coast into the Florida panhandle. There is still a lot of
uncertainty in details with this feature, as it will be highly
dependent on Ida`s evolution over the Appalachians. This convergence
zone will be enough of a lifting mechanism to bring showers and
storms into parts of the region through at least, Thursday. This
activity will peak each afternoon with peak diurnal heating. Given
low to medium confidence on the development (if any) and placement
this "boundary" and/or other mesoscale features, have kept
precipitation chances as NBM suggests with 20 to 40 percent chance
through the end of the week. Better chances along the coastal
counties.
Mid to upper level ridge builds in over the Four Corners early next
week, slightly shifting east-northeast into the central Plains by
mid-week. The warming trend will resume after Tuesday as
temperatures warm back into the mid to upper 90s and winds at the
surface shift to the south-southeast. Have pushed temperatures
higher than NBM guidance, close to the 90th percentile of
climatology.
.MARINE...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move over the
coastal waters this morning, gradually tapering off during the
afternoon hours. Isolated gusty winds up to 25 knots will be
possible with any cluster of storms.
Hurricane Ida is expected to move into central Gulf of Mexico as a
Major Hurricane today, making landfall along the Louisiana coast on
Sunday. According to the current forecast track and intensity,
impacts across our coastal waters include winds around 15 to 25
knots, gusting to 30 knots, wave heights from 3 to 6 ft in the
nearshore waters and up to 9 ft offshore. Strong rip current risk is
also anticipated along with elevated tides during the tide times.
These conditions should arrive as early Sunday morning and will
continue into Monday. Small Craft Advisory will be needed during
this time frame. Marine conditions should gradually improve late
Monday with south to southeast winds returning into the region.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm will be possible during the
week.
.TROPICAL...
Confidence continues to increase in the track of Hurricane Ida,
forecast to move towards the Louisiana coast and an expected
landfall Sunday evening. While not quite as high in confidence as
the track, the environment over the Gulf looks quite supportive
for strengthening, and Ida is still forecast to make landfall as a
major hurricane.
For our area, this track is far enough removed that our direct
impact from the storm will largely be restricted to increased seas
on the Gulf and rip currents on Gulf-facing beaches. If you have
friends or family in the path of Ida, though, please urge them to
finish their preparations as quickly as possible for what is
expected to be the landfall of a very strong hurricane.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 75 93 75 95 / 60 20 20 10 20
Houston (IAH) 91 77 94 77 96 / 60 30 30 30 30
Galveston (GLS) 90 81 91 80 93 / 60 60 40 40 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...05
TROPICAL...Luchs
FXUS64 KHGX 281127
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
627 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Low CIGs do not appear to be materializing at northern sites, and
have pulled references in the TAF there. Have shower mentions at
the outset from HOU coastward, and will spread northward and gain
a thunder mention this afternoon, and retreat back to the Gulf
again tonight. With such a long VCTS window at most sites, have
also tried to highlight periods of highest likely impact with
TEMPO and or prevailing SHRA. Winds mainly easterly, increasing
to 5 to 10 knots for the afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 430 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021/...
.DISCUSSION...
It`s safe to say that the dominant feature of the forecast in the
Gulf of Mexico early this week is Hurricane Ida, making its way
into the Gulf after crossing Cuba on Friday. Fortunately for our
area, Ida is expected not to track towards our area, meaning the
main impacts to Southeast Texas will be for our coastal waters,
and an increased risk of rip currents at local beaches. At worst,
we may see a swipe of showers from an outer band or an occasional
gust to around tropical storm force.
The downside is that when it comes to hurricanes in the Gulf, what
is good news for some must mean bad news for someone else. The
forecast for Ida brings a powerful hurricane to the Louisiana
coast tomorrow night. If you have friends, family, acquaintances,
or - heck, even enemies - in the path of this storm, now is the
time to urge them to complete their hurricane plans and
preparations as quickly as possible.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday Night]...
Water vapor imagery shows convection blossoming along the Texas
and Louisiana Gulf coast early this morning. This is well out
ahead of Ida, but instead looks to be a subtle shortwave trough
making its way around midlevel ridging ahead of the hurricane. For
most of the night, storms have died pretty quickly as they drifted
too far west from the trough axis. However, in the past hour or
two, the radar has really started to light up. The expectation is
that as the shortwave trough continues to move northwest across
the eastern portion of our forecast area, it will support
increased coverage of showers and storms through the day,
particularly into the afternoon as instability builds.
Temperature-wise, humid air looks to keep low temperatures above
normal, but also is likely to keep warming in check a little,
keeping afternoon highs closer to seasonal averages.
Sunday may be a deceptively tricky forecast as Ida approaches and
eventually moves inland over the Louisiana coast. It`s a fine line
between being far enough off that we see a little more onshore
connection, providing a continued flow of moist air to give us
another day with scattered showers and storms and getting caught
underneath the storm`s subsident edge, with dry, northeast flow
and capping to keep convection under wraps. And then there`s
another fine line to catching an outer band or two of the storm,
as some of the guidance has suggested.
Considering so much of this is dependent on the precise track,
strength, and structure of Ida, it`s probably a fool`s errand to
get too granular with the forecast here. I give all of the
forecast area at least a slight chance of rain on Sunday, lowest
across the far inland north and highest towards the south and
east, closest to the expected path of Ida. I pull things back
tomorrow night, as by then we`ll lose daytime heating and Ida
will be moving northward into Louisiana. For what it`s worth, I do
shade a bit higher with high temps on Sunday - and this will be
particularly necessary if we end up with more subsidence, more
sun, and less rain.
.LONG TERM [Monday Through Saturday]...
The medium range starts off with Ida`s remnants moving north-
northeast over the Lower MS Valley and Tennessee Valley on Monday
and Tuesday. Our region will be positioned on the southwestern edge
of this tropical cyclone as it moves northeastward. This will result
in northwest to west winds at the surface and PWATs down into the
1.7-1.9 inch range over southeast TX. Higher moisture axis will
remain south of I-10 and into our far eastern counties; therefore,
have kept chances for showers and thunderstorms across these
locations for Monday and Tuesday.
As we move into mid-week, deterministic and some ensemble members
suggest a line of convergence zone developing from the Upper TX
coast into the Florida panhandle. There is still a lot of
uncertainty in details with this feature, as it will be highly
dependent on Ida`s evolution over the Appalachians. This convergence
zone will be enough of a lifting mechanism to bring showers and
storms into parts of the region through at least, Thursday. This
activity will peak each afternoon with peak diurnal heating. Given
low to medium confidence on the development (if any) and placement
this "boundary" and/or other mesoscale features, have kept
precipitation chances as NBM suggests with 20 to 40 percent chance
through the end of the week. Better chances along the coastal
counties.
Mid to upper level ridge builds in over the Four Corners early next
week, slightly shifting east-northeast into the central Plains by
mid-week. The warming trend will resume after Tuesday as
temperatures warm back into the mid to upper 90s and winds at the
surface shift to the south-southeast. Have pushed temperatures
higher than NBM guidance, close to the 90th percentile of
climatology.
.MARINE...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move over the
coastal waters this morning, gradually tapering off during the
afternoon hours. Isolated gusty winds up to 25 knots will be
possible with any cluster of storms.
Hurricane Ida is expected to move into central Gulf of Mexico as a
Major Hurricane today, making landfall along the Louisiana coast on
Sunday. According to the current forecast track and intensity,
impacts across our coastal waters include winds around 15 to 25
knots, gusting to 30 knots, wave heights from 3 to 6 ft in the
nearshore waters and up to 9 ft offshore. Strong rip current risk is
also anticipated along with elevated tides during the tide times.
These conditions should arrive as early Sunday morning and will
continue into Monday. Small Craft Advisory will be needed during
this time frame. Marine conditions should gradually improve late
Monday with south to southeast winds returning into the region.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm will be possible during the
week.
.TROPICAL...
Confidence continues to increase in the track of Hurricane Ida,
forecast to move towards the Louisiana coast and an expected
landfall Sunday evening. While not quite as high in confidence as
the track, the environment over the Gulf looks quite supportive
for strengthening, and Ida is still forecast to make landfall as a
major hurricane.
For our area, this track is far enough removed that our direct
impact from the storm will largely be restricted to increased seas
on the Gulf and rip currents on Gulf-facing beaches. If you have
friends or family in the path of Ida, though, please urge them to
finish their preparations as quickly as possible for what is
expected to be the landfall of a very strong hurricane.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 75 93 75 95 / 60 20 20 10 20
Houston (IAH) 91 77 94 77 96 / 60 30 30 30 30
Galveston (GLS) 90 81 91 80 93 / 60 60 40 40 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...05
TROPICAL...Luchs
-
TexasBreeze
- Posts: 1008
- Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
- Location: NW Houston, TX
- Contact:
I have seen too much downplaying about Ida on other forums. It looks like it is well on its way to RI to me with the clearing eye. It is much better than this morning and see how fast Grace sped up last week. Took one day only to become a major for Mexico!
Cat. 2
Scary situation unfolding. I’m very happy I’m not in the path of this thing. I feel for those that are.
TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Sat Aug 28, 2021 1:10 pm I have seen too much downplaying about Ida on other forums. It looks like it is well on its way to RI to me with the clearing eye. It is much better than this morning and see how fast Grace sped up last week. Took one day only to become a major for Mexico!
I bet the ones that are downplaying Ida aren’t in that forecast cone.
-
Andrew
- Site Admin
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It looks like the impacts from Cuba are still being felt by Ida some right now. A little bit of good news for Lousiana but I suspect a category 3 is still more likely than not as environmental conditions and SSTs remain very favorable. At this point, time will likely be the only limiting factor.
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I still believe we need to watch the Gulf for our own threat in about 7-10 days from now. Seeing some small hints on the models that there could possibly be something.
-
redneckweather
- Posts: 1058
- Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
- Location: Montgomery, Texas
- Contact:
jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat Aug 28, 2021 10:19 amIt wasn’t wrong. You can get clear water in either case. The main reason is still due to the particles suspended in the water regardless of which way the wind blows.redneckweather wrote: ↑Sat Aug 28, 2021 7:49 amWell that is all you had to say instead of typing up a half truth dissertation about it.loljasons2k wrote: ↑Sat Aug 28, 2021 12:34 am Core wrapping-up again quickly. Ida means business. This is a very dangerous situation setting-up for NOLA. Don’t have time to debate wind speeds and silt turbidity at Galveston right now but the point was it’s not the Mississippi river.
Will check-in when I can but will probably be busy working S2K this weekend. Godspeed to those in the path.
Terrible deal for Louisiana, especially after last year. Prayers outbound for our neighbors.
Ida is off to the races…as expected.
One question so we can move on from this. If Galveston had a 2mph wind out of the West for 4 days straight, would the water be clear along the surf?
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Andrew
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Unfortunately, Ida has remained just east of the NHC track for most of today so more significant impacts to New Orleans are more and more likely. The symmetry of the storm is starting to improve too with colder cloud tops surrounding the emerging eye.
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Well the 12z EPS sure did just look interesting….
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Stratton20
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- Location: College Station, Texas
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CPV17 what are they showing?
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